December 7th, 2015
It is both a good week and a bad week on the home market. The top two releases are Ant-Man and Minions, which made more than $500 million and $1 billion globally, respectively. It's rare you get a one-two punch like that on top. However, the competition for those two films is much, much weaker. The third best-selling release, according to Amazon.com, is the Marvel Cinematic Universe: Phase Two Box Set. It looks amazing, which is why it led this years Holiday Gift Guide, but I'm not sure there are a lot of people who will be willing to spend $200 on a box set when they likely own all or most of the movies. Beyond that, there's mostly TV on DVD releases. The competition for Pick of the Week is also not very deep with Ant-Man coming out on top.
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November 25th, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 easily won the box office race on the international chart with $146.0 million in 87 markets for a worldwide opening of $248.7 million. Its biggest market was China, but it only managed third place there with $16.11 million. The film cracked $10 million in the U.K. with $14.10 million in 941 theaters and in Germany with $13.42 million on 1,002. The film's openings were lower than Part 1 managed in most markets (Germany and Latin American seem to be the biggest exceptions) but it is still doing well enough that it will break even before it reaches the home market.
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September 17th, 2015
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation rocketed up the chart into first place with $91.3 million in 63 markets over the weekend... sort of. This includes $86.42 million during the film's six-day opening in China. Its three-day weekend number is a lot smaller than that, but still enough for first place. Overall, the film now has $424.8 million internationally and $612.9 million worldwide. It became only the second film in the franchise to reach the $600 million mark worldwide. This is more than enough to break even, so it should come as no surprise that there's another installment in the works.
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September 15th, 2015
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Both of the two true wide releases had amazing openings this past week. Or to be more specific, amazing openings for a September release. The Perfect Guy did earn first place, but by less than half a million dollars over The Visit. Both films opened substantially above expectations. Thanks to this, the overall box office rose significantly, both compared to last week and compared to last year. The total box office was $102 million, which is 13% higher than last week. It is also 13% higher than the same weekend last year. September is already looking really good. Year-to-date, 2015 has pulled in $7.65 million putting it 5.3% ahead of last year's pace of $7.26 million. 2015 is nearly $400 million head of 2014's pace and there's not a lot of time for 2015 to blow that lead. It wouldn't be impossible, but it is getting more and more unlikely.
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September 9th, 2015
The winners of our Give the Wheel a Spin contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Transporter Refueled opening weekend were...
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September 9th, 2015
While first trying to come up with picture / title ideas for the weekend columns, I saw the image above and was reminded of "Simply Irresistible" by Robert Palmer. Ever since then, the song has been stuck in my head. It's been there for more than 48 hours now and I'm starting to think I will need medical help getting rid of it. The overall box office was more or less in line with Friday's expectations. A Walk in the Woods matched predictions (nearly) perfectly, while The Transporter Refueled was on the low end of expectations. Fortunately, War Room showed off strong legs leaping into first place. It was able to help the overall box office grow 3.5% to $90 million over the three-day weekend. This was 38% higher than the same weekend last year; however, this is due to a misalignment of holidays. Compared to last labor day, the box office was 18% lower. With that, the summer of 2015 is officially over and while records were broken, the overall box office was actually the second best on record, falling just short of 2013 at $4.48 billion to $4.75 billion. Year-to-date, 2015 has a 5.3% lead over 2014 at $7.53 billion to $7.15 billion.
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September 6th, 2015
Summer, 2015 comes to a sedate finish this weekend, with The Transporter Refueled falling flat, and War Room moving to the top of the chart in its second weekend in release. The faith-based drama is expected to earn $9.3 million for the three-day portion of the weekend, comfortably clear of Straight Outta Compton’s $8.8 million in its fourth weekend. War Room will top the chart while playing in only 1,526 theaters, the fewest theaters for a number one film since the Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour topped the chart from 683 theaters back in 2008 (see fewest theaters for number one movie since 2000).
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September 5th, 2015
As expected, The Transporter Refueled earned first place on Friday with $2.4 million. However, bad reviews will lead to a front-loaded weekend, so it won’t last there long. I think the best comparison is The Transporter 2, which was also released on Labor Day long weekend. That film opened with $5.57 million on the Friday, and earned $16.54 million / $20.10 million after three and four days respectively. If The Transporter Refueled had the same internal multiplier, it would make $7.1 million / $8.7 million. However, The Transporter 2 also earned better reviews, so it would be best to shave a few points off, to give The Transporter Refueled just under $7 million over the three day weekend and just over $8 million including Monday. That’s a disappointing start, even for a film that wasn’t expected to do well at the box office.
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September 4th, 2015
It's Labor Day long weekend, the weakest long weekend of the year. There are two films looking to grab spots in the top five, The Transporter Refueled and A Walk in the Woods. They will have to contend with Straight Outta Compton, but more importantly, they will have to compete with last chance outdoor activities. This weekend last year, the best new release was The Identical, which is one of the biggest bombs of all time. We won't have a repeat of that this year, so hopefully fall can start on a winning note.
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September 2nd, 2015
The winners of our Check Up contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for We Are Your Friends opening weekend were...
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September 1st, 2015
As September begins, the box office is in a slump. August was terrible and only Straight Outta Compton escaped with its dignity intact. Fortunately, we expected August to be terrible, so the box office isn't any lower than anticipated. As for September, there are two wide releases expected to earn more than $100 million, which is better than most years. Those two films are Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Hotel Transylvania 2, both sequels. There are four other films that could become midlevel hits, so we have good depth as well. By comparison, last September there were also two $100 million hits, The Maze Runner and The Equalizer. However, there were only two midlevel hits, so it appears this year has better depth. Frankly, 2015 has such a large lead over 2014 that all it needs to do is maintain pace for the rest of the year to be considered a success. If September can help 2015 grow its lead, then the overall industry should be very happy.
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August 27th, 2015
Next weekend is Labor Day long weekend, which is historically the worst long weekend at the box office all year. This year, only one film, The Transporter Refueled, is opening wide, so at least it has the box office to itself. That should help it open better. It also means it is the only choice for the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Transporter Refueled.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a TV on DVD release. It could be either The Vampire Diaries: Season Six on Blu-ray or The Originals: Season Two on Blu-ray. I don't know what prize the winner will receive and neither will they, until it is delivered.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize, comprised of a previously reviewed TV on DVD full-season release.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a second Frankenprize, comprised of a previously reviewed TV on DVD full-season release.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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