February 7th, 2019
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. A lot of people call this Oscar the Pixar Award, and there is a Pixar film on this list. However, in a shocking twist, it isn’t the overwhelming favorite to win.
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January 16th, 2019
Bumblebee remained in first place with $35.6 million in 64 markets for totals of $256.3 million internationally and $365.2 million worldwide. It was able to remain in first place in China with $26.36 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $108.91 million. It fell 55%, which is actually quite good for a film in China. Bumblebee needs about $250 million worldwide, without China, in order to break even during its initial push into the home market. It got there this weekend and it still hasn’t opened in Japan. I think Paramount will be happy with this result and there will be another installment in the Transformers franchise.
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January 9th, 2019
Bumblebee rose to first place with $82.7 million in 62 markets for totals of $192.0 million internationally and $289.6 million worldwide. It was able to earn first place thank in part due to its first place debut in China, where it earned $58.06 million over the weekend for a total opening of $59.26 million. The film needs to make more than $150 million in China to have a secure future there. Granted, films in China tend to have short legs, but Transformers has usually been the exception, so I’m cautiously optimistic for its chances.
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December 18th, 2018
The weekend went according to predictions, more or less. Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse was the biggest surprise and it beat our prediction by barely more than $1 million at $35.36 million. The Mule was a distant second place with $17.51 million, but this is still a good result for its production budget / target demographic. On the other hand, Mortal Engines bombed. There’s no polite way to describe this result. The overall box office rose by 37% from last weekend, hitting $115 million. Unfortunately, this weekend last year, Star Wars: The Last Jedi opened with nearly double that by itself. 2018 was off by 58% when compared to last year. That would be a terrible result, even if there were a misalignment in holidays. Fortunately, 2018 still has a huge lead over 2017, up by 9.3% or $930 million at $10.96 billion to $10.03 billion and even if 2018 loses by this amount for the next two weeks, it will still end the year with a massive lead over 2018.
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December 16th, 2018
Sony’s estimates have Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse earning $35.4 million over the weekend. Its reviews and its A plus from CinemaScore should both helps its legs, as will the upcoming holidays. On the other hand, it does have direct competition next weekend, more or less. Aquaman will attack it from the super hero side of things, while Mary Poppins Returns will take from its family film side. That said, with a start like this, $100 million domestically is practically guaranteed, while $150 million is a solid goal to aim for.
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December 15th, 2018
Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse debuted with $12.6 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $35.5 million over the full weekend, at least according to Sony. It will get a tiny boost on Sunday, because about 5% of school kids start their winter holidays on Monday. It will get a larger boost from its reviews, which remain Oscar-worthy. And this is not a case of the critics loving it and the audiences being more ambivalent, as the film earned an A plus from CinemaScore and a five-star rating from PostTrak. If the film does match Sony’s estimates, then it will be a little better than our prediction. More importantly, if its word-of-mouth boosts its legs, it could earn more than $200 million domestically. That’s asking a lot, but it is a possibility. It is certainly something to keep our eyes on.
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December 13th, 2018
After two weeks with no new releases in the top five, we have three new films vying for a position there. This includes Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse, which is all but guaranteed a spot in the top five. The Mule was thought to be an Awards Season contender, but its reviews are disappointing, given those high hopes. Finally there’s Mortal Engines, a film that cost $100 million to make and will likely barely earn a spot in the top five. This weekend last year, Star Wars: The Last Jedi opened with $220.01 million. That’s more than the entire box office will earn this year. This could be more than all three wide releases earn in total. Fortunately, 2018 has a $1 billion lead over 2017, so three weeks of bad losses won’t change that.
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December 12th, 2018
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Aquaman debuted in China dominating the market with $92.98 million over the weekend for a total opening of $94.28 million. This is roughly as much as the rest of the top five made combined. It is also certainly more than it will open with domestically.
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December 11th, 2018
There were no new releases / expansions / re-releases in the top five over the weekend. In fact, there were no such films in the top ten. Not a single film in the top five even switched positions, so there’s almost nothing to talk about. Ralph Breaks the Internet held on a tiny bit better than predicted, but that didn’t stop the overall box office falling 27% from last weekend to $84 million. This is still ahead of the same weekend last year, but by a tiny 1.5% margin. Year-to-date, 2018’s margin over 2017 barely changed and currently sits at 10.7% or $1.04 billion at $10.82 billion to $9.77 billion.
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December 9th, 2018
Both animated films are doing great at the box office with Ralph Breaks the Internet matching our prediction nearly perfectly with a studio estimate of $16.1 million over the weekend, which would give it a running tally of $140.9 million. Internationally, the film has barely opened in half the world earning $18.0 million over the weekend for a total of $117.3 million. This includes a first place debut in Spain with $4.6 million over the five-day weekend. Its next major market isn’t until December 21st when it opens in Japan, while it is a Boxing Day release in Australia.
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December 8th, 2018
It looks like it will be another soft weekend at the box office. The lack of new releases is not helping holdovers too much, but most of the top five is on pace to match expectations, more or less. For example, Ralph Breaks the Internet pulled in $3.52 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $15 million over the weekend. This is within a rounding error of our prediction and nothing to panic about. Granted, the film is falling behind Coco’s pace, while $200 million domestically is becoming a more difficult goal, but Disney could give it a push over the top if it wants to.
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December 6th, 2018
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The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. It is still very early in the year and the predictive value of the Golden Globes is a little suspect, but there are still some things to learn here. For example Vice led the way with six nominations, so its Oscar chances have gone up, but don’t expect it to lead the way when the Oscars nominations are announced.
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December 6th, 2018
The first weekend of December is usually a terrible weekend to release a new film. However, that’s because it is usually the first weekend after Thanksgiving long weekend. This year this is not the case, but there are still no wide releases to talk about. The closest to a new release is Schindler’s List, which is getting a semi-wide release. It has a slim chance at reaching the top ten, but I wouldn’t bet on it. This means the top five this week will be identical the top five from last weekend with Ralph Breaks the Internet leading the way. This weekend last year, Coco remained in top spot with $18.45 million, while the only wide release was Just Getting Started, which missed the Mendoza Line. I think 2018 will win in the year-over-year competition, but not by a lot.
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December 5th, 2018
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald remained in first place on the international chart with $40.8 million on 18,922 screens in 80 markets for totals of $386.9 million internationally and $521.4 million worldwide. Its biggest market of the weekend was Japan, where it added $7.5 million to its running tally, which now sits at $25.6 million. Its biggest market overall is China, where it has $56.65 million, including $2.37 million this past weekend, followed by the U.K. with $33.8 million, including $3.5 million this past weekend.
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December 4th, 2018
The post-holiday weekend matched expectations, more or less. Ralph Breaks the Internet led the way with $25.57 million over the weekend. The Possession of Hannah Grace opened better than expected and earned more than it cost to make, so if it can find an audience on the home market, it could break even. Overall, the box office fell almost exactly $100 million from last weekend, but it is a post holiday weekend, so this 47% drop-off is not unexpected. More importantly, this is 9.5% above the same weekend last year, which continues 2018’s winning streak. 2018’s lead over 2017 is basically within a rounding error of where it was last week at $10.8 million / $1.05 billion at $10.70 billion to $9.65 billion.
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December 2nd, 2018
Ralph Breaks the Internet will retain top spot on the weekend box office chart with an estimated $25.8 million for a two-week total of $119.3 million. Granted, this is lower than we predicted, but not so much lower than anyone at Disney should be panicking. Internationally, the film added an estimated $33.7 million in 27 markets, lifting its international total to $87.7 million after two weeks of release. Its only major market opening of the weekend was the U.K. where it reportedly earned $5.2 million. This is less than Wreck-It Ralph opened with, but that film debuted during the school holidays, so it got a boost. Ralph Breaks the Internet should have longer than average legs thanks to Christmas, but I don’t think it will match its predecessor in this market.
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December 1st, 2018
Ralph Breaks the Internet remained in top spot on the box office chart on Friday earning $5.74 million. This is 74% lower than its opening Friday; granted, that was a holiday, so a sharp decline was practically guranteed, but this is still sharper than anticipated. Look for $25 million over the weekend, which is weaker than our prediction and puts $200 million in jeopardy. It will need help over the Christmas break to get there.
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November 29th, 2018
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It’s the weekend after Thanksgiving long weekend, which is one of the worst weekends for a wide release. This weekend, The Possession of Hannah Grace is the only new release and it is only opening in 1,700 theaters. This means Ralph Breaks the Internet will have no trouble remaining in first place. In fact, the top five from last weekend will remain nearly the same. A couple might switch places, but that’s it. This weekend last year, Coco remained in top spot with just under $28 million, while there were no new releases / semi-wide expansions that managed to grab a spot in the top five. Its holdovers vs. holdovers, which gives 2018 a small advantage.
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November 29th, 2018
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The Favourite had the best theater average, not only of the weekend, but of the year. It pulled in $422,000 in 4 theaters for an average of $105,603, putting it ahead of the previous leader for 2018, Suspiria. It is a lot more mainstream and shouldn’t have a problem expanding significantly beyond this point. Shoplifters was well back with an average of $17,853 in five theaters. The overall box office leader, Ralph Breaks The Internet, was next with an average of $14,000. The World Before Your Feet was the latest documentary to open in the $10,000 club earning an average of $11,241 in two theaters. The final film in the $10,000 club was also a wide release, Creed II, which earned an average of $10,338.
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November 28th, 2018
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald fell more than $100 million to $83.3 million on 27,922 screens in 80 markets for totals of $322.2 million internationally and $439.2 million worldwide. Its only new market was Japan, where it debuted with $13 million on 1,008 screens. By comparison, the first Fantastic Beasts earned $15.5 million during its debut in that market. The film’s best holdover was Germany, where it added $7.5 million on 1,460 screens lifting its running tally to $23.2 million after two weeks of release. On the other hand, it plummeted 82% during its second weekend in China down to just $6.44 million for a two-week total of $52.11 million. The film likely won’t reach $500 million internationally and its worldwide total might be as much as $200 million shy of its predecessor. This is still enough to be profitable, but there is reason to be concerned about the franchise going forward.
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November 27th, 2018
The weekend box office was more lucrative than predicted with both Ralph Breaks the Internet and Creed II breaking records. Depending on how technical you want to be. Ralph Breaks the Internet led the way with $55.67 million over the three-day weekend and $84.47 million over five. This is technically the record for biggest Thanksgiving opening, as Frozen had a prestige opening the weekend before and only expanded wide on Thanksgiving. Nearly every other film on this week’s list also topped predictions helping this weekend to rise 26% from last weekend hitting $216 million over the three-day period. This was also 15% higher than the same weekend last year, which is a more important result. I was really expecting 2018’s lead over 2017 to be down significantly from its peak; however, instead it has stretched its lead to $1.04 billion or 11% at $10.53 billion to $9.49 billion.
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November 25th, 2018
While Thanksgiving long weekend wasn’t as lucrative as earlier figures suggested, estimates are still better than our predictions. For example, Ralph Breaks the Internet should open with $55.67 million over the three-day weekend for a five-day opening of $84.47 million. This is technically the record for biggest Thanksgiving opening, as Frozen had a prestige opening the weekend before and only expanded wide on Thanksgiving. Internationally, the film reportedly made $41.5 million during its opening weekend. This doesn’t sound like a lot, but it is only playing in about a third of international markets, and only three major markets. It opened with an estimated $19.5 million in China, while it was also dominant in Mexico ($6.3 million) and Russia ($5.7 million). Overall, the film nearly tripled Wreck-it Ralph’s openings in the same markets. The film won’t have the same legs, as sequels almost never do, but this is still an amazing start and it is clearly on pace for $600 million worldwide.
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November 24th, 2018
Ralph Breaks the Internet again led the way on Friday with $21.74 million for a three-day total $50.54 million. Good news: It is still on pace to top our prediction; in fact, depending on when you read this on Saturday, it might have already done so. At this point, a five-day opening of $85 million seems like a safe bet. Bad news: it has fallen behind Moana’s daily pace, despite a much faster start, so it will definitely have weaker legs. It should still have no problem getting to $200 million domestically and still is in a race with Dr Seuss’ The Grinch for biggest hit of November. It’s just no longer a record-setting opening.
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November 23rd, 2018
Yesterday was Thanksgiving and some studios were closed for the day, but we have a full list of box office numbers today. Ralph Breaks the Internet continued to lead the way at the box office with $10.3 million on Thursday for a two-day total of $28.8 million. The film is still well above Coco and Moana’s two-day pace, but it fell 44% from its Wednesday debut, which is a sharper decline than either of those two films suffered. It is on pace to dominate the five-day weekend with $85 million, which is below yesterday’s pace and below Frozen’s record-setting wide expansion, but I can’t imagine there are many people at Disney that are disappointed with this result. The film’s reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore, plus its family friendly target audience should help it last in theaters till the new year and it should be profitable enough that the studio will want to turn the franchise into a trilogy.
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November 22nd, 2018
It’s Thanksgiving long weekend, which means many studios are closed and are not reporting official numbers. However, one of the studios that is reporting numbers is Disney and they are reporting record-breaking numbers. Ralph Breaks the Internet earned $18.5 million on Wednesday, which is significantly more than either Coco or Moana managed the previous two years. In fact, this is more than Frozen managed during its record-breaking wide expansion back in 2013. This film’s reviews are great and it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, so it should have good legs and could top Frozen’s $93.59 million five-day opening. In fact, some studios think it has a real chance of $100 million during its five-day opening. I’m not that bullish, but even if it only earns $90 million over five-days, it will still be a monster hit and way more than we predicted.
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November 21st, 2018
It’s Thanksgiving long weekend, which means it is officially the start of the holiday blockbuster season. This year, three films are opening wide hoping to become hits. One of them, Ralph Breaks the Internet, could become the biggest hit of the month. Creed II is expected to top its predecessor during its five-day opening. Robin Hood is just hoping not to bomb in theaters. Both Green Book and The Front Runner were scheduled to expand wide, but neither will. In fact, The Front Runner isn’t even expanding semi-wide. This weekend last year, Coco opened with nearly $73 million during its five day weekend. Ralph Breaks the Internet likely won’t earn that much over the weekend, but it should come close. Additionally, Justice League earned $60 million during the five-day frame, which is very likely better than Creed II will perform. However, after that point, 2018’s depth becomes stronger than 2017’s depth and we should earn the small win in the year-over-year competition.
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November 19th, 2018
As expected, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald topped the weekend box office chart; however, it failed to meet expectations by about 10%. Additionally, neither Instant Family nor Widows matched expectations and this hurt the overall box office, which fell 2.9% from last weekend to $172 million. More importantly, this is 14% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 has reached $10 billion and now has a running tally of $10.18 billion. This is 11% or $1.01 billion ahead of last year’s pace.
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November 1st, 2018
October continued 2018’s phenomenal box office run, for the most part. There were a couple of films that missed expectations by $10 million or more, but on the other hand, Vemon and Halloween were smash hits and are now the first and second biggest October debuts of all time. Furthermore, 2018’s lead over 2017 is, as I’m writing this, just shy of $1 billion and if 2018 can maintain this lead, it will be one of the biggest year-over-year increases of all time. It won’t. The fun times end now. Why is that? Last November was amazing. There were only eight wide releases, but six of them earned more than $100 million. Three of those hit $200 million, including Thor: Ragnarok, which earned over $300 million. This year, there are a lot more movies opening in November, but it is a case of quantity over quality. No movie is expected to come close to $300 million and it would take a bit of luck just to have five $100 million hits. The film I’m looking forward to the most is Ralph Breaks the Internet, while it, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, and Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald are all aiming for $200 million this month. Fortunately, even if 2018 is behind 2017’s pace by around $300 million, 2018 has built up such a large lead that it should still go into December with an insurmountable lead at the box office.
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June 5th, 2018
Animated comedy starring John C. Reilly and Sarah Silverman opens November 21 ... Full Movie Details.
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