February 26th, 2017
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It’s Oscar night and we were live blogging the show. Read on the the highlights of what turned out to be a crazy night.
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February 26th, 2017
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. Nominees in italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between.
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January 24th, 2017
The Oscar nominations were announced starting at 5:18 am Pacific time. Nothing is good that early in the morning. Worse still, it’s a boring year for nominations with very few surprises worth talking about, especially in the biggest categories. Leading the way was La La Land with 14 nominations, tying the record.
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January 11th, 2017
The BAFTA nominations were announced and it should come as no surprise what film lead the way... La La Land with 11 nominations, Nocturnal Animals and Arrival are tied for second with nine nominations a piece.
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January 9th, 2017
There’s a lull in the quality and quantity of releases on the home market, one that will continue until the holiday releases start coming out. That’s not to say there are no releases worth picking up. Under the Shadow is an amazing horror film and the DVD is a Contender for Pick of the Week. However, the winner of that honor is The Criterion Collection release for His Girl Friday oni Blu-ray.
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December 19th, 2016
It’s the final Tuesday before Christmas and there are a few big releases that are trying to become last minute gifts. Sully is the best of the big releases, but according to Amazon.com, Dolly Parton's Christmas of Many Colors: Circle of Love is the best-selling new release of the week. I guess a very recent Christmas TV special makes sense near the top, but appearing at the very top it is surprising. As for the Pick of the Week, it is a coin-toss between Sully and Hitchcock/Truffaut on DVD or Blu-ray. Sully won the coin-toss.
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November 24th, 2016
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them opened in first place on the international chart with $143.3 million in 63 markets. The film had the biggest opening of the Harry Potter franchise in 16 of those 63 markets, but ironically not in the U.K., where it had its biggest opening. The film debuted in first place there with $18.90 million in 666 theaters. This is the third best in the franchise behind the two Deathly Hallows films. Some of the markets where Fantastic Beasts set the franchise record include South Korea, where it made $10.64 million on 1,431 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $14.15 million. It did the same in Russia with $10.29 million on 1,173 screens and in Brazil with $6.4 million.
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November 6th, 2016
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After a couple of months of weak box office, and some very disappointing openings, Doctor Strange, Trolls and Hacksaw Ridge are each, in their own way, putting things back on track. Doctor Strange is grabbing the headlines of course, with an impressive $84,989,000 opening projected by Disney on Sunday morning. That’s almost identical to the opening weekend enjoyed by Thor: The Dark World on this weekend back in 2013, and comes without the benefit of being part of an established franchise (putting aside its place in the Marvel Cinematic Universe).
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October 30th, 2016
What was meant to be the weekend that the Fall Season started in earnest has turned into a damp squib, with Inferno not just failing to hit expectations, but not even topping the chart. With just $15 million expected this weekend, according to Sony’s Sunday morning projection, the franchise has shown a dismal downward trajectory at the domestic box office. The Da Vinci Code opened with $77 million in 2006; Angels & Demons debuted with $46 million in 2009; and now Inferno will earn less on its opening weekend than either of its predecessors made on their opening days.
The weak opening for Inferno follows a string of so-so results for films over the past couple of months. Perhaps the reality show that is our presidential election is dragging down theatrical business?
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October 28th, 2016
Inferno got off to a slow start with midnight previews earning just $800,000. That’s well below the other thrillers that have opened this month. In fact, it is on par with Deepwater Horizon’s previews at the end of September. That film earned just over $20 million, which isn’t a bad opening, but it isn’t a great opening for a film that cost $75 million to make. Things get worse for Inferno, as it has terrible reviews and it is part of a franchise, so its legs will likely be shorter. At the moment, it is on pace for a sub-$20 million debut; however, that might change when we see Friday’s estimates. Maybe it will bounce back, or maybe things will get worse.
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October 18th, 2016
The weekend box office was not good. The Accountant did beat expectations with $24.71 million, but the other wide releases missed expectations. As a result, the box office fell 6% from last weekend to $97 million. The weekend box office should never be below $100 million, outside of a few dead zones during the year. We’ve been below that mark too frequently this year. Worse still, this is 18% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 still has a substantial lead over 2015 at $8.78 billion to $8.43 billion. However, we are nearing the $325 million mark where we have reason to panic. Remember, The Force Awakens earned $650 million during 2015 and Rogue One is only expected to earn half that much this year. We need to maintain a lead that large, or else 2016 will likely lose in the year-over-year comparison in the end.
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October 13th, 2016
Three wide releases are coming out this week, which is one more than expected. The Accountant is clearly the biggest of the three, but its reviews are falling into the danger zone. Kevin Hart: What Now? is hoping to be the biggest stand-up comedy movie since Eddie Murphy’s Raw. Finally there’s Max Steel, which I didn’t think was going to open truly wide. Then again, its theater count is 2,034, so it is opening barely wide. This weekend last year, Goosebumps led the way with $23.62 million. I really thought The Accountant would top that, but I no longer think that will be likely. Worse still, there were five films that earned more than $10 million last year, but there will only be three of them this week. 2016’s slump will continue.
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October 11th, 2016
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Over the weekend was Columbus Day, or as it is known in more and more places, Indigenous People’s Day. It’s also Thanksgiving Day up here in Canada and it would make more sense for Americans to celebrate Canadian Thanksgiving than Columbus Day. Canadian Thanksgiving is where you give thanks to all the Canadians that make your life better. For example, both Ryan Gosling and Ryan Reynolds are Canadian. Anyhoo... The weekend box office numbers were not buoyed by the semi-holiday on Monday as none of the new releases matched expectations. The Girl on the Train led the way by a wide margin with $24.54 million compared to $15.14 million for Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children. Neither The Birth of a Nation nor Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life made it into the top five. The overall box office fell 9.5% from last weekend dropping to $103 million. That was 13% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $8.64 billion, putting it 4.4% / $370 million ahead of 2015. A couple of more weeks like this and we will have reason to hit the panic button.
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October 8th, 2016
As expected, The Girl on the Train led the way on Friday, albeit with a slightly smaller-than-expected figure of $9.35 million. This is a little more disappointing after the film’s previews, especially since films aimed at more mature women tend to have longer than average legs. We knew the reviews were not good and that wouldn’t help the film; however, the audience reaction was even worse, as the film earned a B- from CinemaScore. Anything below a B+ usually results in weak legs, and we are already seeing The Girl on the Train struggle in that regard. We originally predicted $27 million, but I think $26 million is now more likely. That’s not a bad opening weekend for a movie that cost $45 million to make, so Universal should still be happy. We also can’t be sure how much effect Hurricane Matthew had on the opening day, so business could yet pick up as the storm passes.
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October 6th, 2016
October begins with a trio of wide releases, led by The Girl on the Train. The film’s reviews are mixed, which is not ideal, but also not fatal. The Birth of a Nation was looking to become an Awards Season player, but its reviews are not quite at that level. Finally there’s Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life. There are still no reviews and the buzz is as quiet as you can get for a wide release. This weekend last year, the only wide release was Pan and it bombed hard. However, The Martian remained on top with $37.01 million over the weekend. There’s almost no way The Girl on the Train will match that and last year had better depth as well. 2016’s slump will continue.
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October 5th, 2016
The winners of our Dark Urges contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Deepwater Horizon opening weekend were...
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October 4th, 2016
The overall box office was about as strong as expected, as Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children beat expectations by the same amount as Deepwater Horizon missed expectations. This helped the overall box office grow 10% from last weekend to $114 million. However, this is still 24% lower than this weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 still has a lead over 2015, but that lead has shrunk to 4.9% or $390 million at $8.50 billion to $8.10 billion. If 2016’s lead falls below $325 million, then we will need to panic. Remember, last year ended with Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which earned $650 million before the end of the year. Rogue One isn’t expected to earn half of that, so 2016 is going to need a $325 million lead or it will need better depth in order to come out ahead. I would prefer the former.
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October 1st, 2016
Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children took first place on Friday with $9.0 million. This is a little better than predicted and fine for a September release. The film’s reviews ticked up a couple of percentage points and now sit at 64% positive, while it earned a CinemaScore of B+. This is about on par with The Maze Runner. If the two films have the same internal multiplier, then Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children will open with about $26 million over the weekend.
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September 30th, 2016
Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children earned $1.2 million during its Thursday previews, which is just ahead of the $1.1 million earned by The Maze Runner back in 2014. Unfortunately, there’s a question whether we should treat this as a young adult book adaptation, or whether we should treat it as a more gonzo Tim Burton offering. If we go that route, there are no really good comparisons. Dark Shadows earned $550,000, but that was just over four years ago when midnight screenings weren’t standard and far fewer people went overall. Regardless, this is a better start than expected and an opening weekend of $30 million is more likely than it was before.
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September 29th, 2016
Three wide releases come out this week: Deepwater Horizon, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children, and Masterminds. Deepwater Horizon’s reviews are better than expected and that should help it at the box office. Miss Peregrine’s reviews are on the razor’s edge of the overall positive level. Meanwhile, there are not enough reviews to really judge Masterminds, but the early signs don’t look good. This weekend last year was the first weekend of October. The Martian nearly broke the record for biggest October weekend. There’s a chance all three wide releases this week won’t match The Martian’s opening weekend. Add in last year’s depth and there’s almost no chance 2016 will come out ahead on the year-over-year comparison.
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September 29th, 2016
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The winners of our Magnificent Prizes contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Magnificent Seven opening weekend were...
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September 23rd, 2016
Three wide releases are coming out next week. Of the three, Masterminds is by far the weakest and has no real shot at first place. In fact, if it opens above fifth place, I will be surprised. Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children is the widest, but the early reviews for Deepwater Horizon are excellent and I think that will give it the edge at the box office. Because of this, it is the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Deepwater Horizon.
We have copies of The Purge: The Election as prizes. While the film hit VOD this past Tuesday, we have copies on Blu-ray Combo Pack as prizes.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of The Purge: The Election on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win win a copy of The Purge: The Election on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win The Purge: The Election on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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September 1st, 2016
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August continued to pad 2016’s lead over 2015 in the year-over-year comparison. It managed this feat almost entirely due to Suicide Squad, which is on pace to hit $300 million. The next best film was Sausage Party, which might make $100 million, if it gets a push over the top. September won’t be as strong as that. This is no surprise, as the month is one of the biggest dumping grounds on the calendar. That said, studios have been working to make the end of the month a lot more productive and there are a few potential hits. The biggest of these is The Magnificent Seven, which is expected to crack $100 million, maybe even $150 million. Meanwhile, Sully and Storks both have a limited chance at $100 million. Last September, the biggest release of the month was Hotel Transylvania 2 with pulled in $169.70 million. I don’t think The Magnificent Seven will match that, so we might need a surprise $100 million hit for 2016 to come out on top.
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