Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Home Market Releases for February 20th, 2018

February 19th, 2018

It’s another slow week; however, I prefer to think of it as the calm before the storm, as there are several blockbusters and Oscar contenders coming out over the next few weeks. That’s not to say there are no big hits or Oscar contenders on this week’s list. The Florida Project and Loving Vincent are both up for an Oscar, while there are some massive hits coming out on VOD, like Thor: Ragnarok. As for the Pick of the Week, it was an easy choice: The Florida Project on Blu-ray. More...

Home Market Releases for February 6th, 2018

February 7th, 2018

There are not a lot of big titles on this week’s list of home market releases and there won’t be for at least a couple more weeks. That’s not to say there is nothing worth picking up. Both Blame (DVD) and Only the Brave (Blu-ray) are Pick of the Week contenders. In the end, Duckman: The Compete Series is the Pick of the Week winner and worth picking up, unless you own the previous DVD releases. More...

International Box Office: Coco Collects Another $55.3 million

December 13th, 2017

Coco earned first place for the second time with $55.3 million in 35 markets for totals of $254.0 million internationally and $389.7 million worldwide. Even if we pretended Christmas wasn’t right around the corner and that the film didn’t still have several major markets left to open in, it would still be on track to earn over $500 million worldwide, which is more than enough to cover its entire production budget and likely a sizable chunk of its advertising budget. With Christmas less than two weeks away and international openings in Australia, Italy, Brazil, South Korea, the U.K., and Japan still ahead, there’s a chance this film will finish with $750 million worldwide. That would be more than enough to pay for its combined production budget, meaning it will break even before it reaches the home market. As for this past weekend, the film continued to top the chart in China with $34.80 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $127.98 million. More...

International Box Office: Coco Catapults into First Place with $69.0 million

December 6th, 2017

Coco climbed into first place with $69.0 million in 33 markets for totals of $171.3 million internationally and $281.4 million worldwide. The film opened in a trio of major markets in Europe, earning first place in all three. France led the way with $5.2 million, $6.4 million including previews, while Spain ($2.8 million) and Germany ($2.0 million) were also strong results. It beat Moana’s opening in all three markets. The film grew 146% during its second weekend in China earning $44.17 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $75.79 million. The film is already the biggest Pixar hit in China and is in third place for Disney animated films, behind Zootopia and Big Hero 6.

More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Coco Holds Strong with $27.53 million, But Moana Sails Further Away

December 5th, 2017

It was a good weekend, as every film in the top five beat expectations at the weekend box office. Granted, in most cases it was by a tiny amount, but any victory is worth celebrating at this point. It has been a really bad year at the box office. (Or to be more accurate, the summer was historically bad and the rest of the year hasn’t been able to compensate.) Coco led the way with $27.53 million and thanks to the holidays, should stick around in the top ten until early 2018 helping it get past $200 million with ease. The overall box office fell 44% from last weekend to $105 million; however, it is a post-holiday weekend, so a decline like this was expected. More importantly, the box office rose 9.7% from last year and this is reason to celebrate. Year-to-date, 2017 is still behind 2016’s pace by 4.1% / $410 million, at $9.68 billion to $10.09 billion, but if we can maintain this pace for the rest of the year, then we could really cut into 2016’s lead. More...

Weekend Predictions: Coco Will Repeat on Top, but Can it Catch Up with Moana?

November 30th, 2017

There are no wide releases this weekend, which means Coco should have no trouble remaining on top of the chart. In fact, most of the top five will remain the same as last weekend. Maybe one of the Awards Season contenders will expand enough to grab a spot in the top five, but that isn’t really likely. This weekend last year, Moana remained in first place, as there were also no new releases to compete against. 2017 should be able to win in the year-over-year comparison, but it will be awfully close. More...

International Box Office: Justice League Plummets, Still Grabs First with in $71.5 million

November 29th, 2017

Justice League plummeted more than 60% to $71.5 million on 32,800 screens in 66 markets for two week totals of $310.98 million internationally and $482.88 million worldwide. It’s only major opening came in Japan, where it earned first place with $3.85 million on 645 screens. This is ahead of Wonder Woman and Thor: Ragnarok, so the movie is keeping its dreams of $800 million worldwide alive. It really needs that much to break even any time soon. Its biggest holdover was China, where it fell 68% to $16.36 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $84.17 million. It should be able to get to the century mark there, which will be reason to celebrate. It remained in first place in Brazil with $5.4 million on 1,617 screens for a two-week total of $24.8 million. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Coco is Cream of the Crop with $50.80 / $72.91 million

November 28th, 2017

Coco gave Disney yet another reason to be thankful for Thanksgiving weekend. It topped the chart, to give the studio 10 of the 11 biggest Thanksgiving openings of all time. Meanwhile, Justice League fell a little bit faster than expected, and $250 million domestically might be out of reach. It depends on how well it holds onto its theater count when The Last Jedi opens. Overall, the box office fell 5.2% from last weekend to $189 million. This is 2.4% higher than the same weekend last year. Granted, that’s not enough to deal with inflation, but at this point, I’m willing to use any excuse to celebrate. Year-to-date, 2017 was able to close the gap with 2016, but is still behind 4.1% with $9.53 billion to $9.95 billion. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Coco Come to Life at the Box Office?

November 22nd, 2017

Coco is the only wide release of the week, which is amazing for Thanksgiving weekend. This should boost its chances at the box office and it is now expected to open in first place. Justice League was expected to repeat as box office champion this weekend, but that’s likely not going to happen now. This weekend last year, Moana earned $82 million over the five-day weekend. I don’t think Coco will match that, but it will come close enough to top the chart. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Justice is Leagues ahead of Competition, but Misses Expectations with $93.84 million

November 21st, 2017

Justice League easily won the race for first place on the weekend box office chart. However, it only managed $93.84 million, which is substantially lower than it was expected to open with. In fact, it’s the first film in the DCEU to not open with more than $100 million. (To be fair, it is doing better internationally.) Wonder was a surprising hit in second place and it helped the box office rise 32% from last weekend to $199 million. More importantly, this weekend was 26% higher than the same weekend last year. 2017 ended its most recent slump, but it is still 4.5% or $430 million behind last year’s pace at $9.21 billion to $9.65 billion. More...

Friday Estimates: Justice Prevails on Friday with $38.8 Million, but the DCEU in Peril

November 18th, 2017

As predicted, Justice League dominated the Friday box office chart, earning four times its nearest competitor. However, it only managed $38.8 million on Friday, which is well below expectations. In fact, tracking has been dropping and the film is now widely expected to open with less than $100 million over the weekend, making it the only film in the DCEU to fail to reach the century mark during its opening weekend. There are a number of reasons why this film is struggling. Firstly, except for Wonder Woman, no film in the franchise has earned good reviews and mainstream audiences may have given up on the franchise. Secondly, the troubled production meant a lot of people who were part of the target audience, but not hardcore D.C. Comics fans, are taking a wait-and-see approach here. Since its reviews are bad, these people are staying home. Its CinemaScore is just a B plus, so it won’t have great legs going forward. Finally, there’s Thor: Ragnarok. That film is proving to be stronger than expected competition, as it started faster and is holding up better than most similar films. I think Warner Bros. is going to have to rethink the entire DCEU before going forward. Aquaman is already in post-production and Wonder Woman 2 is definitely going forward. After that, I’m not sure what films will or will not be made. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Justice Reign at the Box Office?

November 16th, 2017

Justice League is hoping to be the biggest hit of the month, but two things could get in the way of that goal. Firstly, Thor: Ragnarok got off to a faster than expected start. Secondly, Justice League’s reviews are significantly weaker. There are two other films coming out this week, The Star and Wonder, both of whom are simply hoping not to be lost in a crowded marketplace. This crowded marketplace should help 2017 end its slump against 2016. This weekend last year, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them opened in first place with just under $75 million, while there were three other films that earned between $10 million and $20 million. This year, Justice League should top $100 million with ease, while Thor: Ragnarok will earn more than $25 million. The top two films this year should do better than the top five films from last year and that should lead to 2017 earning a comfortable win over 2016 in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Contest: Home for the Holidays: Winning Announcement

November 15th, 2017

The winners of our Home for the Holidays contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Daddy’s Home 2’s opening weekend were... More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Thor Rocks On with $57.08 million, but Weekend Box Office still Suffers

November 14th, 2017

Thor: Ragnarok led the weekend chart and actually beat our prediction by a small degree with $57.08 million. The two new releases, Daddy’s Home 2 and Murder on the Orient Express, also beat expectations. Unfortunately, that wasn’t enough to help the overall box office, as it fell 16% from last weekend to $151 million over the weekend. This is 4.9% lower than the same weekend last year. 2017 has fallen further behind 2016 at $8.98 billion to $9.46 billion. 2017 is 5.1% or $480 million behind last year’s pace and I’ll be happy if we can cut that deficit in half by the end of the year. More...

Weekend Estimates: Daddies Sneak into Second Place; Thor Solid in Second Week

November 12th, 2017

Thor: Ragnarok maintains a firm hold on top spot at the domestic and international box office this weekend, with a respectable decline of 54% at home taking it to $56.6 million for the weekend and $211.6 million to date. With another $75.9 million internationally, for a total of $438.5 million overseas, Ragnarok will pass $650 million worldwide today. That makes it the most successful Thor film already, and it seems like it should retain decent traction into the holidays, even with Justice League coming out next weekend. More...

Friday Estimates: Thor Tops Chart with $18.28 million, Race for Second Place Demands Attention

November 11th, 2017

As predicted, Thor: Ragnarok easily won on Friday with $18.28 million. This is 61% lower than its opening Friday, which is better than most blockbusters manage. It also puts it on pace for $56 million during its sophomore stint, which is exactly on track with my prediction. Meanwhile, Disney’s share of the film’s worldwide box office is already above the film’s $180 million production budget, so profitability is all but guaranteed. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Murder Doesn’t Quite Kill the Competition with $1.6 million

November 10th, 2017

Murder on the Orient Express pulled in $1.6 million during its previews lat night. In order to match our $27 million prediction, it will need a multiplier of just under 17. By comparison, The Girl on the Train, which is another murder mystery movie with a train in it, earned a multiplier of almost exactly 20 with $1.23 million in previews and an opening weekend of $24.54 million. Murder on the Orient Express also earned better reviews, which would suggest longer legs. On the other hand, it had louder buzz, which tends to result in a more front-loaded box office. We will have a better idea tomorrow when Friday’s estimates are in. More...

Weekend Predictions: Thor Looks to Dominate Newcomers

November 9th, 2017

After last week’s debut, Thor: Ragnarok should have no trouble repeating in first place, but we do have two new releases that should be in a battle for second. Murder on the Orient Express had a strong opening in the U.K. and that bodes well for its opening this weekend. On the other hand, Daddy’s Home 2’s box office potential is moving in the other direction. As I started writing this, there were still no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. This weekend last year, Doctor Strange led the way with $42.97 million. Thor: Ragnarok should top that by around $10 million. Likewise, this week’s new releases should top last year’s new releases. However, last year had a lot better depth. Last year, every film in the top ten earned more than $3 million. This year, I’m not sure the fifth place film will earn more than $3 million. I fear 2017 will lose yet again in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Contest: End of the World: Winning Announcement

November 8th, 2017

The winners of our End of the World contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Jigsaw’s opening weekend were... More...

Contest: Home for the Holidays

November 2nd, 2017

Next weekend, there are two wide releases, Daddy’s Home 2 and Murder on the Orient Express, both have a shot at $100 million, but both are expected to come up short. Even if both films earned the same amount in the end, Daddy’s Home 2 should still open faster, because of its target demographic. Therefore, Daddy’s Home 2 is the better choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for Daddy’s Home 2.

We are continuing our Christmas contest for as long as I have supplies to mail out prizes, at which time the contest ends for good. The last of our winners will either get a Christmas present or a lump of coal. The present will include a couple of movies, TV shows, maybe some kids DVDs, etc., while the lump of coal will be the last of my HD-DVD titles, while they last, as well as something from the prize pool.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize, as described above. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay! More...

2017 Preview: November

November 1st, 2017

October wasn’t a good month; then again, outside of a few bright spots, the overall box office has been a disaster since early summer. I would love to say November will turn things around, but, while it should be better, in this case “better” is a relative term. There are two films on this list with a chance at $300 million, Thor: Ragnarok and Justice League, while Coco is nearly a guarantee for $200 million. By comparison, last November had a similar result with three films earning between $200 million and $300 million, but none topping that figure. This means, if Thor: Ragnarok and Justice League both get to that milestone, then 2017 could cut into 2016’s lead during the month. It will still take a minor miracle for 2017 to catch up in the end, but just cutting the lead in half by the end of December would be a reason to celebrate at this point. More...

Daddy’s Home 2 Trailer

September 6th, 2017

Comedy starring Will Ferrell, Mark Wahlberg, Mel Gibson, and John Lithgow opens November 10 ... Full Movie Details. More...