Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

DVD and Blu-ray Releases for March 31st, 2020

April 2nd, 2020

This week Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker comes out on Blu-ray and 4K Ultra HD and if you think that will scare away most of the competition, you will be correct. This isn’t the worst week I’ve see on the home market, but it is close. Unfortunately, not only is the list rather short, there’s nothing here that jumps out as a Pick of the Week contender. On a side note, Amazon is having... issues, which not only delayed this column, but it means if you want to buy most new releases here right away, you will have to deal with third-party sellers or go somewhere else. More...

Weekend Predictions: Halloween Gives Way to the Holiday Season

October 31st, 2019

It’s the first weekend of November, which is the unofficial start of both the Christmas blockbuster season and of Awards Season. There are four films hoping to take advantage of time of year to create some box office success. Of these, only Terminator: Dark Fate is expected to be a true box office hit. It will likely earn more during its opening weekend than any of the rest of the new releases earn in total. I think Harriet will do okay and could even crack $10 million during the weekend. On the other hand, Arctic Dogs still has no reviews and that’s a really bad sign. Finally there’s Motherless Brooklyn, which is opening in well under 2,000 theaters. This weekend last year, Bohemian Rhapsody opened with more than $50 million and even the high end predictions don’t have Terminator: Dark Fate earning that much. It’s going to be another bad week for 2019 in the year-over-year competition. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Maleficent Holds Off Joker for Top Spot

October 28th, 2019

It was a super close race for top spot on the weekend box office chart with Maleficent: Mistress of Evil and Joker neck-and-neck. In fact, they changed positions over the weekend and even reversed positions from the weekend estimates. Both of these films topped expectations by a small degree, as did most of the new releases. Unfortunately, this wasn’t enough, as the box office fell 24% from last weekend to $105 million. This is also lower than the same weekend last year, but by a tiny 0.7% margin. I’m not going to get upset about a decline this small, but it does mean 2019 has fallen further behind 2018’s pace with the deficit growing to $520 million / 5.4% at $9.00 billion to $9.52 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Joker Wrestles First Place from Maleficent, Probably

October 27th, 2019

Joker is returning to first place on the weekend chart with $18.9 million, which is a tiny bit ahead of expectations. However, it is in a close enough race with Maleficent: Mistress of Evil that the pair could switch places when the final numbers show up tomorrow and I wouldn’t be too surprised. Internationally, the film is earning an estimated $47.8 million on 14,000 screens in 79 markets for totals of $571.5 million internationally and $849.1 million worldwide. It is now the highest-grossing R-rated film of all time worldwide, and is on pace to become the first R-rated film to reach $1 billion globally. More...

Friday Estimates: Joker Returns to the Top

October 26th, 2019

Joker wasn’t gone from top spot for long, as it earned first place on Friday with $5.46 million, putting it on pace for close to $19 million over the weekend. This is very close to our prediction, but it is ranking better, due to marginally-weaker-than-expected competition. It also reportedly became the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time, at least worldwide. It is not going to catch up to The Passion of the Christ domestically. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Black and Blue in the Green

October 25th, 2019

Black and Blue had the best previews on Thursday with $675,000. I was not expecting the film to have the best previews last night, nor was I expecting it to earn this much. Additionally, its reviews are have improved and are now mixed, in fact, they are currently exactly 50% positive, so it could surprise and top $10 million during its opening weekend. Just over $8 million is more likely, but this is still a solid debut for this time of year. More...

Weekend Predictions: Halloween Scares Away Wide Releases

October 25th, 2019

The final weekend before Halloween is rarely a good time to release a film and the paltry selection of new releases on this list shows this year will be no different. The Current War: Director’s Cut is the only film earning good reviews, but it is opening in the fewest theaters by far. Countdown has the worst reviews, but it is a horror film opening just before Halloween, so its opening weekend could be okay. Black and Blue is in the middle in terms of reviews, theater count, and box office chances. Sadly, it is very likely all three films will open below $10 million over the weekend. There’s a slim chance none of them open in the top five. By comparison, this weekend last year saw only one wide release, Hunter Killer, which bombed. This year will be much better in terms of new releases, but none of the holdovers will match Halloween on top. 2019 does have much better depth, so I think we will get a small win in the year-over-year comparison. More...

2019 Preview: October

October 1st, 2019

September ended on a bit of a weak note, but overall the month was excellent helping 2019 gain some ground on 2018. Can October continue this trend? There are certainly some potential box office hits coming out this month, starting with Joker, which opens the first weekend of the month and should be the biggest hit of the month. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil is aiming for $150 million and should be a hit, even if it doesn’t match the original at the box office. There are also a handful of films with an outside shot at getting to $100 million and I wouldn’t be shocked if one of them made it to that milestone. Meanwhile, last October, Venom broke records during its opening weekend, while A Star is Born had stellar legs helping both earn more than $200 million domestically. I don’t think the top two films will be able to match that this year, but we do have better depth, for the most part, so perhaps 2019 will continue its winning ways and close ground, at least by a little bit. More...

The Current War Trailer

June 26th, 2019

Historical real-life drama starring Benedict Cumberbatch, Michael Shannon, Nicholas Hoult, and Katherine Waterston opens October 4 ... Full Movie Details.

Three brilliant visionaries set off in a charged battle for the future in the story of the cutthroat competition that literally lit up the modern world. Thomas Edison is the celebrity inventor on the verge of bringing electricity to Manhattan with his radical new DC technology. On the eve of triumph, his plans are upended by charismatic businessman George Westinghouse, who believes he and his partner, the upstart genius Nikolai Tesla, have a superior idea for how to rapidly electrify America: with AC current. As Edison and Westinghouse grapple for who will power the nation, they spark one of the first and greatest corporate feuds in American history, establishing for future Titans of Industry the need to break all the rules. More...

The Current War Trailer

September 8th, 2017

Historical real-life drama starring Benedict Cumberbatch, Michael Shannon, Nicholar Hoult, and Katherine Waterston opens November 24 ... Full Movie Details. More...