March 15th, 2016
There are several top-notch releases coming out this week, including a trio of Awards Season contenders: The Big Short, Brooklyn, and Carol. All three are Pick of the Week contenders. However, the winner of that title is Game of Thrones: Season Five on Blu-ray.
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February 18th, 2016
Deadpool opened in first place on the international chart, but it was surprisingly close. The film earned $125.0 million in 61 markets, which is a little lower than its domestic numbers, but its worldwide opening of $257.4 million is fantastic, especially for a film that cost $58 million to make. Its biggest opening came from the U.K., where it earned $20.52 million in 543 theaters. It also earned more than $10 million in Russia ($12.11 million in 1119 theaters) and in Australia ($10.87 million in 393). The film is already playing in most major international markets, but even if it just matches its opening weekend during the rest of its run, it will earn near enough a $100 million profit margin. There will be a sequel, but there may also be several copycat films as well .
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February 10th, 2016
The Revenant returned to first place with $24.0 million in 67 markets over the weekend for totals of $176.4 million internationally and $325.9 million worldwide. By this time next week, the film will very likely be above $200 million internationally, while $400 million worldwide is within reach.
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February 4th, 2016
Kung Fu Panda 3 opened in first place on the international chart with $75.7 million in six markets over the weekend. This includes a first place, $50.77 million over the weekend in China for a total opening of $57.47 million. The film also earned first place in South Korea with $9.14 million on 1,364 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $10.54 million. Its other major market opening was in Russia, where it topped the chart with $4.71 million on 1,190 screens. The film will clearly do better internationally than it will domestically. It is too soon to tell how well it will do worldwide when compared to the other films in the franchise.
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January 4th, 2016
As expected, Star Wars: The Force Awakens dominated the weekend box office earning $90.24 million, breaking several records along the way. However, it did fall 40% over the weekend, which is a lot for this time of year. It appears The Force Awakens is acting more like a typical blockbuster hit and less like the typically leggy December release. That said, I don't think Disney is disappointed with the results so far. On the other hand, The Hateful Eight got off to a disappointing start earning third place with just a fraction of Django Unchained's opening weekend. The overall box office was down from last week, but was still an incredible $219 million. This was 26% lower than last week, but 41% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date is a little less useful, as 2016 is only 3 days old, but it is 27% higher than 2015 was after the first weekend. This is even more impressive, as 2015 had an extra day before the weekend.
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December 31st, 2015
There are two questions that are being asked about this weekend. Firstly, will Star Wars: The Force Awakens become the first film to earn $100 million three weekends in a row? Secondly, will The Hateful Eight live up to Django Unchained? I'm going to say no to both, but the former is much more likely than the latter. The rest of the top five should look the same as last time, with Daddy's Home being the best of the holdovers. The Force Awakens should earn more than the top five did last year, giving 2016 a fast start on the year-over-year comparison.
One last note, there are only two limited releases this week, including Anomalisa, which we previously talked about. The only other limited release is Devil and Angel, which has no reviews, so there's not much to talk about. Because of this, there will be no Limited Release Report this week.
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December 28th, 2015
Star Wars: The Force Awakens easily won the weekend race, but not by as much as anticipated. On the other hand, Daddy's Home was a surprise hit and should cruise to $100 million. None of the rest of the new releases really bombed and most will end their runs as midlevel hits. Overall, the box office fell just 5.1% from last weekend to $295 million, which is the second biggest combined weekend of all time. It was also 41% bigger than the same weekend last year and 2015's year-over-year lead grew to 7.0%. It looks like the 2015 box office will reach $11 billion when all is said and done, but we won't know for sure till we get the absolute final numbers.
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December 23rd, 2015
There are five wide releases / wide expansions this week, none of which will even come close to Star Wars: The Force Awakens' second weekend of release. The rest of the box office combined won't come close to The Force Awakens' sophomore stint. It looks like Daddy's Home has the advantage for second place, while Joy should be close behind. The Big Short expands wide on Wednesday and its five-day total should be close to the previous two films' three-day totals. On the downside, it looks like both Concussion and Point Break will open on the outside of the top five. The Force Awakens will make more than the entire top ten made this weekend last year, so 2015 will end the year on a very positive note in the year-over-year comparison.
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December 21st, 2015
It's been a busy weekend for box office record watchers, as Star Wars: The Force Awakens destroyed the record book. However, it wasn't the only film playing in theaters. The Force Awakens earned $247.97 million, which by itself is the 11th biggest Combined Box Office. Add in Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip and Sisters, the new limited releases and all of the holdovers, and the total box office reached $313 million, topping the old record of $274 million. Needless to say, the overall box office was higher compared to last weekend by 304%. It was also higher than last year by a margin of 131%. Year-to-date, 2015 has earned $10.13 billion, putting it 5.9% or $560 million ahead of last year's pace. 2015's lead over 2014 grew by more than 1.5 percentage points / $160 million over just one weekend.
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December 20th, 2015
Disney is projecting a $238 million opening weekend for Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens as of Sunday morning, a figure that will make it, by some margin, the highest-grossing film on opening weekend at the domestic box office. Jurassic World holds the current domestic record, at $208.8 million. Given the $30 million over-performance at home, it’s perhaps a slight surprise that Star Wars isn’t also projected to take the global weekend record, with its expected $517 million falling a little behind Jurassic World’s $524.9 million debut earlier in the year. That’s one of a handful of examples of Star Wars placing second all-time as of Sunday morning, but mostly it’s been a case of broken records all round, and there’s evidence that Disney is playing things safe in their projections, so pretty much no record can be considered out of reach at this point.
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December 19th, 2015
Star Wars: The Force Awakens not only broke the single day record, it crushed the previous mark. It became the first film to ever earn more than $100 million in a single day, blowing past that milestone with $120.5 million on Friday. So what does this mean for the rest of the weekend? I have no idea, as we are in completely uncharted territory. Well, that's not entirely true. I do know our Weekend Predictions underestimated the demand for this film. The film does have to deal with the Fanboy Effect. Films with Fanboy appeal tend to have shorter legs, because Fanboys rush out to see the movie opening day / opening weekend. However, there are factors at play here that will likely help its legs over the weekend. Firstly, the film’s word of mouth should be amazing as it is earning 95% positive reviews and an A Cinemascore. Secondly, there were a large number of sellouts opening night, so in many places the Fanboys were forced to wait, because they couldn’t get tickets. Even the low end has The Force Awakens breaking the all-time weekend record. On the high end, it could top $250 million. If the film does earn $250 million during its opening weekend, then $1 billion domestically is on the table. An opening weekend around $230 million is more likely. Our model has it earning $225 million—Bruce will have a piece on that shortly—but that still puts $800 million, and yet another record, in the film’s sights.
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December 18th, 2015
Star Wars: The Force Awakens broke Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II’s record for biggest previews by scoring $57 million on Thursday evening. It didn’t just beat the old record, it destroyed it. $57 million is 31% more than the previous record of $43.5 million. This bodes very well for the film’s box office chances, both for today and for the full weekend. On the downside, there are reports that men made up 70% of the audience, which is really high. It could be that women stayed away for the most part because they were worried about the crowds and that the gender balance will be different the rest of the weekend. We should have more information on that by Monday.
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December 17th, 2015
There are three wide releases this week, but only one of them matters: Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Better than anticipated reviews could help it break records over the weekend. It has already broken some box office records, becoming the first film to reach $100 million in advance ticket sales. The other wide releases are Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip and Sisters, both of which are just trying to not completely disappear. This weekend last year, the total box office was $135 million. The Force Awakens could earn nearly 50% more than that and some would still see it as a disappointment. 2015 should extend its lead over 2014 by more than $100 million.
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December 1st, 2015
November ended on a positive note with a strong Thanksgiving weekend. Even so, the overall numbers were mixed with a lot of misses mixed in with a few hits. It was better than October and we will call that a victory. Meanwhile, December is potentially record-breaking. Actually, given the evidence, it is almost assuredly going to be record-breaking. Star Wars: The Force Awakens has already set a record for the most money taken from ticket pre-sales and the biggest December weekend will fall. The pre-orders alone will guarantee that. On the downside, it is very likely that no film will make as much in total as The Force Awakens will make during its opening weekend. There's a chance no film makes in total as much as The Force Awakens makes during its opening day. There are a few films that have a shot at $100 million. For example, Joy should get there, if it becomes a major player during Awards Season. If not, it will at least come close. Daddy's Home, and to a lesser extent Sisters, could be surprise $100 million hits. However, like the rest of 2015, December is shaping up to be a month of a record-breaking hit and a lot of films that struggle just to get noticed. On the other hand, last December, was a lot more balanced at the top with four films earning more than $100 million, led by The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies. There's a chance The Force Awakens earns more than all four $100 million hits from last year earned combined.
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