This graph shows James Franco’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
There are not a lot of prime limited releases on this week’s list and a couple that had the loudest pre-release buzz ended up with weak reviews. Pain & Glory is the film with the best shot at box office success, while Rascal Does Not Dream of Bunny Girl is the film I want to see the most.
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Most of the positively reviewed films on this week’s list are documentaries, including Midnight Traveler, which could find a receptive audience on the art house circuit. On the other hand, Promare is the film I’m most interested in seeing.
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Overall, July was a a little weaker than expected. Ant-Man and the Wasp appears to be on pace for $200 million, while it is too soon to tell if Mission: Impossible—Fallout will also get there. That said, 2018 is still ahead of 2017 by $550 million, so the month of July was a success in that regard. As for August, there’s only one movie that is expected to earn $100 million, Christopher Robin, and maybe a few others that could hit $50 million. It’s a rather sad slate of movies. Fortunately, last August was even worse, so 2018 should at least maintain its lead. Maybe we can get lucky and come away with a $600 million lead by the end of the month.
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It’s not a good week in terms of box office numbers, as the biggest box office hit to come out this week is Wonder. It is also one of the best new releases of the week and a contender for Pick of the Week. Other contenders for Pick of the Week include Blade of the Immortal, Night of the Living Dead, The Silence of the Lambs, and The Sinner: Season One. In the end, it was a coin toss between Blade of the Immortal and Night of the Living Dead and the former won.
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The Golden Globes winners were announced on Sunday and there were a few surprises worth talking about, starting at the top. I was not expecting Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri to be the big winner of the night, but it was with four wins. Only two other movies, The Shape of Water and Lady Bird, won more than one award during the night.
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The Screen Actors Guild were the third group to announce their nominations for this awards season. So far there have been three different films earning the most nominations. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri picked up four nominations, which is extra impressive, as there are only six theatrical categories.
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The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. Sort of. (WGA announced the nominations for TV, radio, etc., but not their theatrical nods.) It is still very early in the year, so it is hard to say if there are any real snubs, or if there are any real favorites. The Shape of Water led the way with seven nominations, while The Post and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri were right behind with six a piece.
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The Independent Spirit Awards nominations were announced yesterday and thus the 2017 Awards Season begins. The movie with the most nominations is Call Me by Your Name, which opens on Friday. This is amazingly good timing. It’s not the only film that should get a financial boost.
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It’s a good week for Pick of the Week contenders, as there are seven such releases on this week’s list. Unfortunately, none of them really scream out as The Pick of the Week. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story is by far the biggest, but it is only out on Video on Demand right now, while Hidden Figures is the best, but again, it is only on VOD this week. There are also a couple of busted Oscar-bait films, Archer: Season Seven is only getting a DVD release, while the previous seasons came out on Blu-ray. In the end, I went with Mystery Science Theater 3000: Volume XXXVIII, partially to celebrate the return of the show.
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It is not a particularly good week for limited releases with lots of films earning mixed reviews, or worse. There are a few that are earning good reviews, like Catfight or Donald Cried, but none are likely to be box office hits.
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November was good, but not great. Fortunately, 2016 had a large enough lead going into November that the month only needed to be good. In fact, it could have been mediocre and 2016 would have still had an excellent shot to end the year above 2015. As for December, it’s a race between Star Wars and Star Wars. Almost no one thinks Rogue One is going to match The Force Awakens, but if Rogue One earns just half of what The Force Awakens managed, then 2016 will come out on top in the year-over-year comparison. There are only two other films with a better than 50/50 chance of hitting $100 million, Passengers and Sing. Either one could earn second place for the month, but Passengers will likely start faster. Last December, the only other film to earn more than $100 million was Daddy’s Home, which earned just a hair over $150 million. There’s a chance both Passengers and Sing will earn more than $150 million, which would be a boon to the box office. However, Star Wars: The Force Awakens was just too strong last year and it would take a miracle for 2016 to have a stronger December. That said, it would take a complete collapse for 2016 not to top 2015 in raw dollars. The growth might not be enough to keep pace with ticket price inflation, on the other hand.
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Several films coming out this week are earning nearly unanimously positive reviews. This includes a few documentaries, but also a couple of narrative films that have a shot at some box office success. Moonlight is clearly aiming to win awards and it might do so. The Handmaiden should help grow Chan-wook Park’s fanbase here.
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It is a really slow week on the top with only a couple of main releases worth being a contender for Pick of the Week: Supergirl: Season 1 and Sweet Bean on DVD. The Nice Guys would also be a contender, but it is only coming out on Video on Demand this week and it is worth waiting for the Blu-ray Combo Pack. With only two real choices, Sweet Bean is my Pick of the Week.
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There are not a lot of new releases on this week's list, but four of the seven of of them are earning overwhelmingly positive reviews. Additionally, one of the other three, Fan, doesn't have enough reviews for a Tomatometer Score, but the first two reviews are positive. Of the best films, Sing Street is the one I expect to do the best at the box office.
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November is over and there are not a lot of positive things to say about what happened during the month. There were a couple of films that matched expectations, but there were no breakout hits and a few that missed expectations by wide margins. Granted, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 will top $300 million with relative ease, but that's still nearly $100 million lower than some people were predicting. The month ends with 2014 about $300 million behind 2013's pace and there's really no chance to catch up in December. That doesn't mean there are no films that will be worth watching in December. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies should at least earn $200 million, while $300 million is not out of the question. Additionally, there are several films that at least have a shot at $100 million at the box office, but not all will get there. At least this December and last December are on par with each other. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug topped $250 million while there were three others that topped $100 million. I think we will get the same result this month. Last year there were a lot more wide releases, but many of them bombed. I think this year the lack of competition will help more films reach their potential.
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The Christmas shopping season has begun in full force. Even if Captain America: The Winter Soldier were the only new release this week, it would be a great release, as the Combo Packs are clearly pick of the week contenders. It's not the only Pick of the Week contender. Agents Of S.H.I.E.L.D.: Season 1 is also a prime contender, although I'm still waiting for the screener for that release. At the moment, I'm giving the win to Captain America: The Winter Soldier, but when I get a chance to review the screener, that might change.
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There are an even dozen films on this week's list, but only Calvary is earning good reviews and strong buzz. Hopefully this will translate into ticket sales, or it will likely be a very bad week for limited releases. There are also a couple of documentaries that could do well in limited release, Finding Fela! and Rich Hill, but neither has the potential for breakout success.
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There are a number of limited releases coming out this week that are earning strong buzz and good reviews. Some of the films that have reviews that are strong enough to suggest box office success are Palo Alto and The Double, as well as two documentaries, Fed Up and Llyn Foulkes One Man Band. However, the film with the best combination of buzz and reviews is Chef.
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It is a busy week on the home market with five films that either opened at least semi-wide or expanded semi-wide. However, unlike last week, there's no monster hit like The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug leading the way. In fact, most of the semi-wide or wide releases on this week's list were critical and box office disappointments. Only Philomena did well with critics. Fortunately, it did well enough that it is a contender for Pick of the Week without even considering the extras on the DVD or Blu-ray. There are a few other new releases that are noteworthy, but most of them are catalog Blu-ray releases. These include Touch of Evil on Blu-ray and Double Indemnity on Blu-ray. In the end, I went with Touch of Evil, but I literally had to roll a dice to decide.
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There are quite a few limited releases this week, including Nymphomaniac: Volume 1, which is earning the loudest buzz. Its reviews are great, but not as strong as the buzz, plus it has been playing on Video on Demand. The best reviews go to Cheap Thrills (Reviews) and Jodorowsky's Dune (Reviews). Hopefully both films will find an audience this weekend, but limited release is a rough go even with the best reviews.
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In order to qualify for the Oscars, a film has to open before the end of the year, so every year the weekend before New Years Eve has a few films trying to get into theaters just under the wire. This also means that the weekend after New Years Eve is a terrible time to release a movie in limited release. Art house theaters are loaded with Oscar hopefuls and it is very unlikely any of the new releases have the reviews to compete with those movies. That is certainly the case this year.
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It's a big week with several first run releases, some big TV on DVD, releases, and more to deal with. The only one that truly rises to the level of Pick of the Week is Mad Men: Season Six, but the screener arrived late and I hate awarding Pick of the Week to a title when that happens. The only other release I really want to see is White House Down, but that's more guilty pleasure than Pick of the Week. I guess it goes to Mad Men: Season Six on DVD or Blu-ray.
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After last week's short list, there are nearly 20 films on this week's list. Because of this, each entry will be shorter than usual. There are a few films on this week's list that seem destined for mainstream success, including Dallas Buyers Club, which could net Matthew McConaughey some Awards Season hardware.
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October ended on a winning note, but it was the only time the entire month that 2013 topped 2012 in the year-over-year comparison. This is quite shocking, as Gravity crushed expectations with more than $200 million and counting. Even with that surprise monster hit, the month still couldn't keep pace with last year. Compared to October, November looks a lot better with three films that could be monster hits: Frozen, Thor: The Dark World, and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. On the other hand, those are the only three movies with a 50/50 chance or better to top $100 million compared, while there were seven films that reached that milestone last November. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire should make more than last year's number one film, Skyfall, but the depth last year could prove too much to deal with. 2013 might dip below last year's pace sometime during the month, but hopefully it won't stay there too long.
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There are a lot of limited releases on this week's list, including a few earning stellar reviews. There are also a few with weak reviews or that are the wrong genre to thrive in limited release. One film fits into both ends of the spectrum, We Are What We Are, which is earning great reviews, but as a horror film, likely won't find an audience till the home market. Hopefully I am wrong. Inequality for All is earning even better reviews, but it is a documentary, so it have very little chance to expand. On the Job has the best reviews of the week, but it is a foreign-language action film, so it will likely not earn breakout success.
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Spring Breakers is one of the more unusual films to come out this week. The original buzz was pretty weak, with a lot of people dismissing it as "Disney Girls Gone Wild". When it was finally released, the critical response was divided. There were many critics who liked the movie, more so than those who disliked the movie, but there were also some who called it one of the worst movies ever. Its limited release was more lucrative than expected and the film currently has the best per theater average for 2013. So which side of the argument do I fall under? And is the DVD or the Blu-ray worth picking up?
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May ended on a mixed note, but there was still enough to celebrate. Of the seven films I thought had a legitimate shot at $100 million, four have already gotten there, one more is a sure thing, and another has a good shot as well. Only one, After Earth, will definitely fail to get to that milestone. (Although Now You See Me might get there instead.) Looking forward to June, there are four weekends, each with two wide releases, for a total of eight films. Of those eight, six have a legitimate shot at $100 million. One, Monsters University, should have no trouble getting to $200 million, and another, Man of Steel, should top $300 million. It is hard to compare this June with last June, because last June there were five weekends. Taking that into account and ignoring the first week, which lines up with the final week of May, there were eight wide releases. Of those eight, five hit $100 million, including three $200 million movies. There were no $300 million movies, so if the two big hits this month do as well as expected, 2013 could come out ahead.
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February is over, and for the most part, we should be very happy it is done and buried. The biggest hit of the month turned out to be Identity Thief, which will cross $100 million shortly. There were also a couple of impressive midlevel hits, like Warm Bodies and Escape from Planet Earth, but for the most part, it was miss after miss. This is bad news for March, which is not only dealing with a slumping 2013 box office, but will be compared with a strong March of 2012. Last March started with The Lorax, which earned more than $200 million. There's a good chance no March release this year will reach this milestone. Last March was also the month The Hunger Games opened, which earned more than $400 million. There's a chance the top three films opening this month won't earn that much combined. 2013 is going to take a beating in the year-over-year comparison and it is already $100 million behind last year's pace.
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