Weekend predictions: Transformers and Spider-Man neck-and-neck going into weekend

June 9, 2023

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts goes into the weekend a very marginal favorite to end it top of the box office chart, thanks mainly to strong earnings from early screenings and Thursday previews. But Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is hot on its tail as of Friday afternoon and could well do enough to pull off a victory.

Here’s how the model looked at Rise of the Beasts coming into the weekend:

The Transformers franchise has seen a steady decline at the domestic box office since peaking with Revenge of the Fallen in 2009. Our model doesn’t pay attention to those kind of trend lines, because there’s a roughly 50-50 chance that a new franchise film will do better than its predecessor.

Using the films released in the past 10 years gives us a small sample, and a predicted $40 million and change opening, after factoring in the model’s current estimate of market strength and the audience interest in the film.

The preview numbers point to an opening weekend a bit better than that:

The top line reported previews for Rise of the Beasts was $8.8 million, but that was split between early screenings on Wednesday that brought in $1.2 million and Thursday previews of $7.6 million. Once adjusted for that, the model thinks the film could make something in the high $50-million range this weekend. The final prediction comes out a shade lower, at $54.5 million.

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

With just $2.1 million between them according to the model, the winner of the weekend is basically a coin flip at this point. I suspect Across the Spider-Verse will actually fall a little more than 57% from its opening weekend, but I also think it’s entirely possible that Rise of the Beasts loses steam as the weekend progresses. My money is on Transformers pulling off a narrow win, but this one could go either way.

- Want to keep The Numbers ad free? Please help with a monthly donation.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts, Transformers