June 15th, 2023
Three new wide releases grace cinemas all across North America this weekend, while a flurry of big franchise hits are still widely available on the big screen. Newcomer Transformers: Rise of the Beasts won the domestic weekend last time around, but Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse retook its position at number one at the box office throughout the week. This week they fall from their respective places as widest release as The Flash and Elemental make their cinematic arrival.
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June 9th, 2023
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Transformers: Rise of the Beasts goes into the weekend a very marginal favorite to end it top of the box office chart, thanks mainly to strong earnings from early screenings and Thursday previews. But Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is hot on its tail as of Friday afternoon and could well do enough to pull off a victory.
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June 8th, 2023
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After debuting as the second-widest release last week, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse adds 19 locations this week, becoming available in 4,332 theaters. The web-slinging superhero and friends earned a hefty $120 million in its opening weekend, and currently holds a six-day domestic total of over $159 million. While those are solid numbers, Spider-Man will have its hands full trying to fend off the release of this week’s newcomer, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts.
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June 1st, 2023
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After a robust Memorial day weekend start, The Little Mermaid retains its opening count of 4,320 theaters from last week, once again owning the title of widest release on both land and sea. The latest adaptation of the charming franchise gathered $95.58 million from North American theaters, while earning less overseas with a take of $68.3 million. This week however the film will slip into second place at the box office as Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse swings into theaters.
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March 29th, 2020
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Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker closes off the sequel trilogy of the Star Wars franchise. The film missed expectations, both critically and commercially. That said, it was still a $1 billion hit worldwide, so it was massively profitable. Is the film a fun way to end the sequel trilogy, despite the critical reception? Or was it a major misstep like many called it?
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January 31st, 2019
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Glass remained in first place with $23.6 million in 55 markets for a two-week total of $89.1 million. It has no new markets this past weekend. In fact, it only has one major market left in its run, China. The film’s biggest market was the U.K. where it remained in first place with $2.55 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $9.06 million. In Russia, t fell 60% to just $2.08 million on 1,381 over the weekend for a two-week total of $8.68 million. The film opened faster than Split did, but it has shorter legs, so it may or may not overtake its predecessor in the end.
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January 16th, 2019
Bumblebee remained in first place with $35.6 million in 64 markets for totals of $256.3 million internationally and $365.2 million worldwide. It was able to remain in first place in China with $26.36 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $108.91 million. It fell 55%, which is actually quite good for a film in China. Bumblebee needs about $250 million worldwide, without China, in order to break even during its initial push into the home market. It got there this weekend and it still hasn’t opened in Japan. I think Paramount will be happy with this result and there will be another installment in the Transformers franchise.
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January 9th, 2019
Bumblebee rose to first place with $82.7 million in 62 markets for totals of $192.0 million internationally and $289.6 million worldwide. It was able to earn first place thank in part due to its first place debut in China, where it earned $58.06 million over the weekend for a total opening of $59.26 million. The film needs to make more than $150 million in China to have a secure future there. Granted, films in China tend to have short legs, but Transformers has usually been the exception, so I’m cautiously optimistic for its chances.
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January 2nd, 2019
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Due to the holidays, there was a delay in getting final numbers from major studios for the weekend box office, but the last of them have finally arrived. Aquaman dominated with $52.11 million over the three-day weekend, while it cracked $200 million on New Year’s Day. Mary Poppings Returns isn’t matching expectations, but it is still having a profitable run. Meanwhile, both Bumblebee and Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse are overcoming incredible competition to dig out profitable runs of their own. Overall, the weekend box office hit $188 million, which is 6.2% higher than last weekend, and while it is 3.5% lower than the same weekend last year, this is still better than expected. It will take a long time to get the final yearly results, not until the MPAA’s state of the industry report in April, but preliminary results have 2018 beating 2017 by 8.4% or $920 million at $11.91 billion to $10.99 billion.
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December 28th, 2018
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It’s the weekend after Christmas and as is the holiday tradition, there are no new releases this week. I guess you could technically call Holmes and Watson and Vice new releases, but they’ve been out since Tuesday. This means there won’t be much new news to talk about. Aquaman will dominate, while Mary Poppins Returns will bounce back, as will most other family fair. I think the same five films that appeared in the top five last weekend will appear in the top five this weekend. Holmes and Watson might not collapse and could grab a spot in the top five, but I personally wouldn’t bet on it. This weekend last year, Star Wars: The Last Jedi barely stayed ahead of Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, as both films earned more than $50 million. Aquaman has close to a 50/50 chance of earning $50 million, but the rest of the films will be well back resulting in 2018 ending on a losing note. That said, it should be relatively close and 2018 has already topped last year’s final box office by a significant margin.
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December 27th, 2018
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The Christmas holiday is over for most people, although it is not entirely over for some studios. This is making getting all of the box office details much harder to do. In fact, we are still limited to estimated for more than half the top five this weekend. We have enough details now to look at the weekend results and the Christmas Day releases and see which are thriving and which are not. Aquaman dominated the charts with just over $100 million so far, including its paid previews. On the other hand, Mary Poppins Returns missed expectations by a substantial margin. It will still break even. The same can be said of Bumblebee, which could usher in a new era of Transformers movies. Overall, the box office rose by 53% from last weekend to $177 million. This is just 0.3% lower than the same weekend last year; however, last year, Christmas Eve fell on a Sunday and Christmas Eve is a dead zone at the box office. We can’t even compare Christmas Day, because landing on a Monday vs. a Tuesday is a huge difference. Next weekend’s comparison will be much easier to make. Year-to-date, and this is up to Boxing Day, 2018 is ahead by 7.7% or $810 million at $11.37 billion to $10.56 billion. This would be an impressive year, even if no more movie tickets were sold after boxing day.
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December 22nd, 2018
Friday was not as potent as midnight previews led us to believe it would be. That said, Aquaman still had an impressive $28.0 million opening day. This does include the previous night’s $9.0 million in previews, but not last weekend’s $4.7 million in previews, giving the film a $32.7 million running tally. The film’s reviews remain in the overall positive level and it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, so it should have relatively good legs over the weekend, for a comic book movie. We predicted an opening weekend of $67 million and I think the film will top that, by one or two million dollars. It is more than enough for Warner Bros. to continue with the new direction DCEU is taking.
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December 19th, 2018
It is a busy week, as there are seven films opening wide over the next seven days. Not all of these will be hits—the competition is just too great for that. However, there could be a real race for Christmas champion this year. Because of its fast start in China and its strong pre-sales numbers, many believe Aquaman will top earlier expectations and earn first place over the three-day weekend. However, I think Mary Poppins Returns will be number one over the full week, partially because it should earn a bigger boost over Christmas, but also because it is opening two days early. Meanwhile, Bumblebee’s surprisingly strong reviews are lifting its box office potential.
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December 1st, 2018
November turned out to be a really, really good month. I thought 2018’s lead over 2017 would shrink, potentially by $200 million to $300 million. However, the lead actually managed to grow a little bit, thanks to hits like Ralph Breaks the Internet, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, and Bohemian Rhapsody. December has an equal number of potential hits, led by Mary Poppins Returns, which some think will top $300 million. Additionally, Spider-man Into the Spider-Verse, Aquaman, Bumblebee, and Holmes and Watson all have a realistic shot at $100 million or more. On the other hand, last December was stronger, at least on top. The Last Jedi earned more than $500 million just during December, which is more than any December release this year will earn in total. It could be more than the top two films earn in total. 2018 will win the in year-over-year competition; however, its lead won’t be as large as it is at the start of the month.
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November 6th, 2018
This is either an amazing week or a terrible week, depending on how you look at things. It is amazing, because there is a trio of releases I was really looking forward to reviewing: BlacKkKlansman, Incredibles 2, and Christopher Robin. It’s a terrible week, because none of those screeners showed up. I normally don’t like giving the Pick of the Week when I’m still waiting for the screener, but that’s not an option this week, so Incredibles 2 wins.
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November 18th, 2017
Here at The Numbers, we strive to improve your reading experience by adding more features we believe you will find interesting. Today, we have two new features to talk about. Firstly, we have a series of new acting records for the various categorizations we use. For example, the highest grossing leading actors in films based on a TV show. The number one actor is Shia LaBeouf, who starred in the first three Transformers movies. Number two is Tom Cruise, who is the star of the Mission: Impossible franchise, while number five is Justin Long, who provided the voice for the titular character in the Alvin and the Chipmunks films. Starting to notice a pattern? Nearly everyone on the top of this list is someone who starred in one TV adaptation that turned into a lucrative franchise. The only exception is Simon Pegg, who has been in two of these franchises: Mission: Impossible and Star Trek trilogy.
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September 27th, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight is the biggest release of the week and it has scared away a lot of the competition, but it’s garbage and should be avoided. There are no big releases that are pick of the week contenders, but some smaller ones fit the bill, including David Lynch: The Art Life: The Criterion Collection, HYOUKA: Part Two, and Shameless: The Complete Seventh Season. All are amazing and worth checking out, but none have many extras, so it is up to the role of the dice to determine the Pick of the Week. ... And it’s HYOUKA.
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September 26th, 2017
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I try to average one review a week and this week I had two potential screeners I could request. L.O.R.D: Legend of Ravaging Dynasties, a computer animated Chinese film that most of our readers have probably never heard of, and Transformers: The Last Knight, the latest installment in one of the biggest franchises around. I choose L.O.R.D: Legend of Ravaging Dynasties, because even after reading a plot summary, and being utterly confused, I still felt it was the better choice for review. Confusing can still be entertaining, while The Last Knight would just make me angry. Did I make the right choice?
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July 27th, 2017
Dunkirk debuted in first place on the international chart with $55.4 million in 46 markets for a worldwide debut of $105.9 million. Its biggest opening was in the U.K., no surprise there, where it earned $13.00 million in 638 theaters. Strangely, South Korea wasn’t far behind with $8.75 million on 1,245 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $10.40 million. On the other hand, the film struggled somewhat in France with $4.9 million. This isn’t a bad opening, but I was expecting more. Overall, it is doing about as well as Christopher Nolan’s previous film, Interstellar. If Dunkirk can merely match that movie's worldwide figure, then it will break even before it reaches the home market. Even if it doesn’t quite manage that total, anything above $500 million worldwide will produce a healthy profit for the studio.
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July 13th, 2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming earned first place in one of the closest races I’ve seen. It pulled in $140.03 million on 24,287 screens in 71 markets for a worldwide opening of $257.06 million. Its biggest market was South Korea, where it earned $19.37 million on 1,965 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $25.94 million. It also cracked $10 million in both the U.K. ($12.11 million in 616 theaters) and Mexico ($11.72 million on 3,506 screens), while it came close to that mark in Brazil with $9.09 million on 1,302 screens. The film did amazing business in Asia, including earning $6.84 million on 1,092 screens in Indonesia and $6.46 million on 1,900 screens in India. The film has yet to open in a number of major markets, including France, Germany, China, and Japan and should top $800 million worldwide with ease before it is done, which is enough to break even before it reaches the home market. The real challenge is surpassing Wonder Woman and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 for top spot on the worldwide chart for the summer. It is too soon to tell if it will get there for sure, but this is a great start.
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July 11th, 2017
The weekend box office chart held few surprises. Every film in the top five was close to our predictions, while the top two films were a little stronger. This includes Spider-Man: Homecoming, which pulled in $117.03 million during its opening weekend, making it the second fastest debut of the summer. (Only Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 is ahead of it in that regard.) Despicable Me 3 held on better than most films this summer and will become a monster hit thanks to its international numbers. Overall, the box office rose by 22% from last weekend hitting $206 million. Unfortunately, this is still 5.1% lower than the same weekend last year. Before the summer began, 2017 had a $200 million lead over 2006. That lead is now down to just $13 million at $5.95 billion to $5.94 billion. This lead could be completely gone by the weekend.
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July 9th, 2017
A $117 million opening weekend is pretty much all Sony could ask for from Spider-Man: Homecoming. It’s the second-best debut for the Spider-Man franchise, if you ignore the effects of inflation, and makes it almost certain that the franchise will break its unfortunate streak of earning less at the domestic box office with every new outing. With, reportedly, a more constrained budget—this is the least expensive Spider-Man film, adjusted for inflation—profitability looks assured, and Sony’s partnership with Disney looks as though it’s paying off.
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July 6th, 2017
Despicable Me 3 dominated the international box office almost as much as it dominated the domestic box office earning $98.8 million on 8,525 screens in 52 markets for totals of $121.1 million international and $171.2 worldwide. Its biggest opening came from the U.K., where it earned $14.50 million in 608 theaters, while Mexico wasn’t far behind with $12.34 million. However, arguably its most impressive opening came in Brazil where it earned $7.5 million, which is the best opening for an animated film in that market. The film has already made enough to pay for its $75 million production budget, so it is a monster hit. However, its decline from Minions means Universal is more likely to make a second and third Minions movie rather than a fourth Despicable Me. As someone who prefers the Despicable Me movies, this is disappointing. On the other hand, I recognize I’m not in the target demographic for these films, so I really shouldn’t have a say in these things.
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July 5th, 2017
The weekend box office chart was as predicted, at least in terms of the order. Most of the new releases / top five had weaker openings / sharper declines. Despicable Me 3 still led the way, but with a more subdued $72.43 million. Baby Driver is hoping to earn that much in total after a $20.55 million / $29.58 million opening. This is almost as much as it cost to make. The House, on the other hand, was DOA with just $8.72 million. On the positive side, Monday and Tuesday were much stronger than usual, so rather than looking at the weekend box office and saying it is weaker than anticipated, we could instead say the weekend box office was stretched out over five days. Overall, the box office grew 20% from last week to $169 million. This is down 11% from the same weekend last year, but again, one could argue this is due to a misalignment in the Independence Day holiday. Year-to-date, 2017 is still ahead of 2016, but the lead shrank to under $30 million at $5.64 billion to $5.61 billion.
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July 4th, 2017
I’ve seen a lot of people attacking Rotten Tomatoes recently saying it is bad for the movie business. Some even point to Transformers: The Last Knight as proof that the site can ruin a film’s box office chances. Besides that charge, the other two main complaints I’m hearing over and over again are A.) Rotten Tomatoes is a very shallow site, especially the Tomatometer. And B.) It is killing in-depth critical examination of movies. I’ll tackle those claims below.
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July 2nd, 2017
With July 4 falling on a Tuesday this year, this is less a holiday weekend, and more the beginning of a holiday week, and it’s bookended by new releases from two of the industry’s most reliable franchises. Despicable Me 3 starts off festivities this weekend with a solid-but-unspectacular $75.4 million from a record-setting 4,529 theaters. Breaking The Twilight Saga: Eclipse’s record for widest opening weekend of all time is no small feat for Universal, but it’s an ominous sign for the franchise that the only film to open in close to this number of theaters and pull in similar numbers at the box office was Shrek Forever After, which opened with $70.8 million in 4,359 theaters back in 2010. That was the last Shrek movie, and this might be a good time for Gru to call it a day.
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July 1st, 2017
As expected, Despicable Me 3 earned first place at the box office on Friday with $29.2 million. This is the best single day for an animated film this year. To emphasize, this isn’t just the best opening day, but the best single day, and it should top that on Saturday. The previous record was $23.00 million, earned by The Lego Batman Movie. This film’s reviews are not as good as The Lego Batman Movie’s reviews are (they both earned A minuses from CinemaScore) so it won’t have the same legs. That said, an $83 million opening is still a great start and roughly on par with Despicable Me 2.
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June 27th, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight had the weekend to itself, but it couldn’t take advantage earning $44.68 million / $68.48 million over the full five days. It earned less over five days than last year’s winner, Finding Dory, earned over three days. Wonder Woman remained in second place becoming just the third film released in 2017 to hit $300 million, but there was not much else to celebrate at the box office. This explains why the overall box office fell 27% from last weekend down to $139 million. More importantly, this is 26% lower than the same weekend last year. 2017 is still ahead of 2016, but its lead was cut in half to just 1.3% or $70 million. This is a little distressing.
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June 25th, 2017
A tepid $45.3 million Friday-to-Sunday domestic weekend for Transformers: The Last Knight is pretty much unmitigated bad news for Paramount Pictures. The studio is in desperate need of a hit, and the Transformers franchise is by far their biggest property. Even including the film’s grosses from Wednesday and Thursday, its $69 million debut is barely in the top ten for the year so far, and poor reviews and a B+ CinemaScore mean that it won’t have significant legs, even with a bit of help from the upcoming July 4 weekend. So all eyes are going to be on its overseas performance.
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June 24th, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight suffered a 48% plummet on Thursday to earn just $8.14 million; however, it bounced back on Friday with $13.69 million. If we again compare this to Dark of the Moon, which is the last film in the franchise to open on a Wednesday, we get mixed messages. The Last Knight fell faster on Thursday (48% to 43%) but bounced back more on Friday (68% to 53%). If we assume The Last Knight will continue to outperform Dark of the Moon over the rest of the weekend, then it will earn about $42 million over the three-day weekend and $66 million over five. This is the worst opening in the franchise by a wide margin, but there is good news for Paramount, as the film earned $41.46 million during its first day in China, and $47.55 million if you include previews. The international numbers will save this film and justify more sequels.
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June 22nd, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight got off to a weak start on Wednesday earning only $15.65 million. That’s not a great start. Fortunately, Cars 3 and Wonder Woman should have strong holds this weekend and that will help the overall box office numbers. They probably won’t help enough to top this weekend last year in the year-over-year comparison, but it should be close.
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June 21st, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight got off to a weak start with $5.5 million during Tuesday night previews. This is the worst in the franchise, not counting the first film, which opened before previews like this were commonplace. As for more recent comparisons, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales earned an identical amount, but that opened on a Friday, so it is not a great comparison. Perhaps Dark of the Moon is a better comparison, as it was also a Wednesday release. It earned $13.5 million in 2011, $5.5 million on Tuesday and another $8 million after midnight. (Studios no longer split the preview box office up like that.) If The Last Knight has the same legs, then it would open with $40 million / $66 million over the three-day / five-day weekend. Unfortunately, its reviews are simply awful at just 16% positive. Furthermore, early reports suggest the audience reaction won’t be much better. It’s too soon to tell if this film is going to underperform already low expectations, but this is not a good sign.
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June 21st, 2017
We have early predictions this week, as Transformers: The Last Knight is out in theaters on Wednesday. (We will get to the holdovers at the regular time.) The Last Knight has to be a monster hit, because the studio, Paramount, is in a slump the likes of which you rarely see. The last time they had a $200 million hit domestically was the last Transformer movie to hit theaters. The last time they had more than a 10% share of the box office was the last time they had the distribution rights to some of the MCU movies. Speaking of combined universes, The Last Knight is supposed to be the creation of a new Hasbro Combined Universe with this franchise and G.I. Joe being the heart of the new universe. This could fail for the same reasons The Mummy failed to jump start the Dark Universe franchise. Namely, the reviews are terrible and audiences are tired of combined universes being forced instead of growing organically.
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June 1st, 2017
May was a really soft month with only one unqualified hit, Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2, which is climbing towards $375 million domestically. The second biggest hit of the month will be Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales and I would be surprised if it tops $150 million by any serious margin. June looks a lot more profitable. There are five weeks and every week there is at least one film with a great shot at $100 million or more. In fact, there are four films with at least a decent shot at $200 million and we could double the number of $300 million hits released so far this year. Wonder Woman is widely expected to start the month with an explosive debut and pulling in more than $100 million during its opening weekend is more and more likely. That said, Despicable Me 3 will probably end up being the biggest hit overall with over $300 million. Meanwhile, Cars 3 and Transformers: The Last Knight are both aiming for $200 million. Last June was not particularly strong, outside of one hit. Finding Dory earned nearly $500 million domestically, while the second best film, Central Intelligence, barely earned a quarter of that. I don’t think any film will come close to Finding Dory, but there’s a lot more depth this time around and I have high hopes 2017 will extend its lead.
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August 10th, 2016
As expected, Suicide Squad easily won the international box office race pulling in $132 million in 57 markets. However, its results in individual markets were mixed when compared to its domestic opening, as well as when compared to Batman v Superman. For example, the film earned first place in Russia with $11.42 million over the weekend, while BvS opened with $7.84 million. It is also a little better than its debut here, given the size of the two markets, and the slumping rubles. On the other hand, the film managed $13.9 million in the U.K., compared to BvS’s opening of $20.66 million. Likewise, a $13.9 million opening in the U.K. is equivalent to about $90 million here, which is much less than its debut here. That’s still a huge opening, but not a monster opening. BvS finished with over $500 million internationally; if Suicide Squad finishes with just under $400 million internationally, it will break even, so the studio can’t be too upset. They could yell, “Damn the critics, full speed ahead.” and let the D.C. Extended Universe turn into another Transformers. Hit after hit, but critically reviled.
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July 24th, 2016
Star Trek Beyond will fall just short of $60 million at the box office this weekend, according to Sunday estimates from Paramount. The studio has the film coming in at $59.6 million over three days, which is substantially short of the $79.2 million earned on debut by Star Trek (the reboot) in 2009, and the $70.2 million made by Star Trek Into Darkness. The so-so start comes in spite of excellent reviews, which are now running at 84% on Rotten Tomatoes, and the franchise seems to have trouble reaching beyond its core audience.
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January 20th, 2016
As anticipated, Ride Along 2 earned first place over the long weekend earning more than it cost to make in just four days. The other two wide releases were less successful. Despite costing more to make, 13 Hours earned less than half Ride Along 2 opened with, while the less said about Norm of the North, the better. Star Wars: The Force Awakens was pushed into third place over the three-day weekend, but it rose to first place on the daily chart on Monday. It is not done yet. The overall, the three-day weekend was up 4.2% from last weekend; however, it was down 18% from last year. This is not surprising, as this weekend last year, American Sniper set the record for biggest January weekend. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $693 million, giving 2016 an early lead over 2015. That lead was cut to 5.9% or $39 million and will likely be cut further next weekend. Hopefully it won't be entirely gone.
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September 30th, 2014
Transformers: Age of Extinction leads the pack of new releases this week, at least in terms of sales potential. It is by far not the best movie on this week's list, but it does appear to have to scared away a lot of the competition. Fortunately, the next best selling new release is Chef on Blu-ray Combo Pack, which is a clear contender for Pick of the Week. The main competitor for this title is Once Upon a Time in America on Blu-ray, but I'm going with Chef.
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September 29th, 2014
If you look at our list of franchises, none have made more money in as few installments as Transformers has earned. On the other hand, if you look at the top ten franchises, none of them have earned as much critical scorn as the Transformers films have earned. Only the first one managed to come close to overall positive reviews. Depending on who you talk to, the most recent installment, Transformers: Age of Extinction, has been called the best of the sequels or the worst of the sequels. Which camp do I fall under?
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July 10th, 2014
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes is the only new wide release of the week and since last week's new releases underperformed, it will dominate the box office this weekend. In fact, it will dominate the box office, even if it barely managed to live up to its predecessor. Transformers: Age of Extinction will be well back with less than $20 million, while Tammy might not reach $10 million. By comparison, this weekend last year, there were two films that earned more than $40 million (Despicable Me 2 and Grown Ups 2) and a total of six films earned $10 million or more. 2014 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison.
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July 7th, 2014
As expected, Transformers: Age of Extinction won the race to the top of the box office chart and did so with ease. However, that film, and practically every film in the top five, failed to live up to expectations. Tammy still took second place with ease, but it was the only other film to earn more than $10 million over the Independence Day long weekend. Overall, the box office pulled in $132 million over the weekend, which is 27% less than last weekend. Compared to the same weekend last year, the box office was 42% lower this year. Ouch. To put this into perspective, even if you take out Despicable Me 2 from last year's box office, 2014 would have still failed to match 2013's weekend numbers. Year-to-date, 2014 is now $130 million or 2.4% below 2013's pace at $5.35 billion to $5.48 billion. It is still too early to panic, but if things don't turn around soon, the panic button will be pushed.
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July 3rd, 2014
There are three wide releases and a wide expansion this week all hoping to take advantage if the Independence Day long weekend. (There was to be one more wide expansion, but Begin Again is expanding to less than 200 theaters.) Tammy is the biggest of these wide releases and it is the latest Melissa McCarthy vehicle and might be a surprise $100 million hit. Deliver Us From Evil and Earth to Echo were in a close battle for third place on Wednesday, but I think their futures will be quite different. Finally, America: Imagine a World Without Her is expanding to over 1,000 theaters. This isn't enough to compete with the new releases, but it could compete for a spot in the top ten. While there are a lot of new releases, Transformers: Age of Extinction will win the race for top spot in the box office chart, unless something surprising happens. The only thing more surprising than Age of Extinction getting knocked out of top spot would be if the overall box office was stronger that the same weekend last year when Despicable Me 2 opened with more than $80 million during the three-day weekend.
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June 30th, 2014
As expected, Transformers: Age of Extinction easily won the race for the top of the box office chart and became the first film released in 2014 to earn more than $100 million during its opening weekend. Granted, it barely made it, but we will take it. This helped the overall box office climb by 20% to $190 million over the weekend. Unfortunately, this was still 8% lower than the same weekend last year when Monsters University repeated at the box office champion. Year-to-date, 2014 has pulled in $5.11 billion, which is 0.3% below 2013's pace of $5.13 billion. This is still close enough that we shouldn't panic, but the trajectory is going in the wrong direction.
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June 26th, 2014
There is only one wide release of the week, but it is a potential monster hit. It is also potentially the last in a very profitable franchise. Transformers: Age of Extinction is the fourth film in the Transformers franchise, a franchise that has averaged more than $350 million at the box office. However, they have also averaged well below 50% positive reviews and the poor critical response could finally be taking its toll. It will still crush the competition this weekend, but it likely won't live up to past installments in the franchise. It will also beat last year's new releases and more than double the first place film; however that might not be enough to save 2014. Last year there were five films that pulled in $20 million or more. This year there will be only one. In fact, there will be only four films that pull in $10 million or more.
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June 1st, 2014
It is too soon to tell how May will end, as this story will be published before the weekend estimates came out. (Maleficent had an excellent start on Friday, unlike A Million Ways to Die in the West.) Overall, it was a good month with at least three movies that are on track to hit $200 million, but there was no really big winner for the month. It was nice and balanced. Unfortunately, last May there was a monster hit, Iron Man 3, and 2014 could not compete with that, so it lost ground to 2013. June hopes to turn things around and there are some reasons to be optimistic. All four weeks there is at least one film opening that at least has a shot at $100 million. There are even two films that at least have a shot at $300 million. Transformers: Age of Extinction should win the monthly box office race while How to Train Your Dragon 2 is a long shot to win, but I wouldn't be completely surprised if it did. Additionally, 22 Jump Street, Edge of Tomorrow, The Fault in Our Stars, and Think Like a Man 2 are all contenders for the century club. Not all of them will get to that milestone, but all of them at least have a short. Last June, there were three films that reached $200 million, including Man of Steel, which nearly reached $300 million. It looks like June of 2014 will be about as strong as June of 2013, more or less. If all films reach their potential, it could win the year-over-year comparison. Unless there are some shocking bombs, it shouldn't struggle so much that 2014 loses its lead over 2013 entirely.
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January 28th, 2014
There are a large number of first run releases coming out this week on the home market, five in total. This is a huge amount. This week, the latest season of Downton Abby also comes out on the home market, and it is the best selling new release of the week, at least according to Amazon.com. So at the top, it is a really busy week. On the other hand, there's very little depth. Beyond those six releases, there's not a lot to talk about. Out of all of the movies on this week's list, Rush is the best movie, but the DVD and Blu-ray Combo Pack are only good and not great. On the other hand, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 on Blu-ray or 3D Blu-ray is the best total package. Meanwhile, I finally got a chance to review Carrie (the screener arrived late) and it was better than I thought it would be and the Blu-ray Combo Pack is worth picking up, especially if you haven't seen the original movie.
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February 1st, 2013
For the most part, January was a really good month and 2013 got off to a really good start. I'm not so sure about February, on the other hand. There's only one film that has a statistically significant shot at $100 million, A Good Day to Die Hard, but I'm a little concerned that it won't live up to expectations. The franchise has been around a long time and it is possible that the target audience has either moved on or are too young to remember when these films were huge at the box office. The film I'm most looking forward to seeing is Warm Bodies, which is earning amazing early reviews (the keyword there is "early"), but it is too high-concept to be a major hit. Last February, there were a couple of films that topped $100 million, plus a few other midlevel hits. I would like to think that would also be the case this year, but I have to be more cautious than that. The evidence points to a weak month ahead, for the most part.
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