This graph shows Eugenio Derbez’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
We’re headed for a slow weekend at the box office, thanks mostly to a lack of major new releases, but also because Five Nights at Freddy’s is suffering a steep post-Halloween slump. Several films are stepping up and taking advantage of their opportunity to lure in audiences not distracted by a blockbuster title. Priscilla is outperforming expectations on its wide expansion; Radical has come from almost literally nowhere to land in the top five; and TAYLOR SWIFT | THE ERAS TOUR is enjoying a strong hold in its fourth weekend in theaters.
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Dora and the Lost City of Gold is a live-action adaptation of a kids cartoon aimed at preschoolers. Is it going to entertain older kids who grew up on Dora the Explorer? Will it entertain adults? Or does it fall in that awkward space between those two demographics?
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I knew The Nutcracker and the Four Realms was in trouble when Disney didn’t push Christopher Robin over $100 million at the domestic box office. At that point, every film they released in 2018 had hit the century mark, so there was a chance they could have had every film released in a calendar year get to that milestone. They wouldn’t pass up that chance, unless they knew The Nutcracker and the Four Realms wasn’t going to get there. It didn’t get there. It barely managed to get halfway to $100 million. Is the film as bad as its box office numbers? Or was it unfairly ignored?
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Last weekend, Infinity War destroyed the weekend record. This weekend, there are three new releases that are just hoping to not get embarrassed. Overboard is the biggest film in terms of buzz, but the buzz isn’t good, to be kind. Tully is the smallest film in terms of theater count, but its reviews are stellar and it has a shot at the top five. Bad Samaritan’s early reviews, are good, but its buzz is so quiet that it will likely bomb in theaters. This weekend last year, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 opened with $146.51 million. There’s almost no chance 2018 will match last year’s performance. Thanks to Infinity War’s record-breaking opening, 2018 should be relatively close.
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April was all about Avengers: Infinity War, which earned about as much during its opening weekend as the next two biggest films, A Quiet Place and Rampage, will earn in total. However, moving Infinity War to April has left a big gap for the first two weeks of May. It isn’t until Deadpool 2 debuts that we have a potential $100 million movie, while the week after Solo: A Star Wars Story closes the month on a strong note. Fortunately, both of those films are expected to earn more than $100 million during their opening weekends alone and combined could earn over $700 million domestically. Last May, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 helped the month get off to a fast start, but it was the only monster hit of the month. Infinity War opening a week early will mean the month will start slower, in terms of new releases, but Infinity War’s record-breaking debut should help 2018 come out ahead in the end.
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Both the first installment First-run Releases and the second installment, TV on DVD releases, were shorter than I would have liked, as this hasn’t been a great year for either wide releases or TV on DVD releases. That said, the third installment of our Holiday Gift Guide deals with limited releases, classics, and foreign imports and this list can get out of hand rather quickly. There will more releases on this list than the previous two, starting with...
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The weekend box office was a wild one with two limited releases in the top five, How to be a Latin Lover and Baahubali 2: The Conclusion. The Fate of the Furious remained in first place with $19.94 million, which is better than expected. Unfortunately, the overall box office was still weak down 8.3% from last weekend to just $99 million. Worse still, this is 8.9% lower than the same weekend last year. 2017’s lead over 2016 took a bit of a hit, but still has a 5.1% or $180 million lead, $3.66 billion to $3.48 billion.
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The last weekend before the Summer season is generally a quiet one, but two breakout hits aimed at niche audiences are making this one interesting. How to Be a Latin Lover will post a shade over $12 million from just 1,118 theaters, according to Lionsgate’s weekend estimate. That would be the news of the weekend if it wasn’t for Baahubali 2: The Conclusion earning the best weekend for a Bollywood movie in history with a stellar $10.1 million from just 425 locations. Those two films couldn’t knock The Fate of the Furious off top spot though, as the action blockbuster added another $19.4 million, to take its domestic total to $192.7 million.
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April comes to end with two wide releases that have modest ambitions at the box office. The Circle opens in 3,163 theaters for STX Entertainment, who will be happy if it beats The Bye Bye Man’s $13.5 million opening weekend and becomes their second-best opening to date (Bad Moms holds the record for the studio, with $23.8 million—a number they would be thrilled with). Speaking of records, The Circle holds a very unusual one…
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March was a month of extremes, led by two strong performances: Beauty and the Beast breaking records and Logan cracking $200 million with ease. There were also two other $100 million hits and another potential $100 million hit that we don’t have significant box office numbers for yet. This is fantastic. On the opposite end, there were three films on last month’s list that didn’t even open truly wide. This month won’t be as lucrative at the top, as The Fate of the Furious is the only film expected to top $100 million. Fortunately, it is expected to open with over $100 million. On the other extreme, there are many, many films on this list that I’m not sure will open wide. Fortunately, last April wasn’t any better. The Jungle Book made nearly $1 billion worldwide, but the other nine films combined made less than half of that. To emphasize: the other nine films that opened last April averaged less than $50 million worldwide each. If The Fate of the Furious can just come close to the previous installment of the franchise, then 2017 has a solid shot at topping 2016.
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One could argue that Instructions Not Included was the biggest surprise hit of the year. In a year in which Iron Man 3 earned $1.2 million billion worldwide, doubling the franchise average, a small movie from Mexico is still arguably the biggest surprise hit of the year. While Iron Man 3 was the follow-up to one of the biggest hits of all time, Instructions Not Included came out of nowhere to become the biggest Spanish-language hit of all time. Is it as good as its box office numbers would indicate? Or it is more right place, right time?
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