December 18th, 2020
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What will be a long, slow, and painful process of recover at the box office starts this weekend with the wide release of films from two studios that have largely stayed on the sidelines over the past few months, both in terms of releasing films, and in terms of creating headlines. Monster Hunter from Sony Pictures is getting the widest debut, in 1,736 theaters, and is likely to win the weekend. Fatale is Lionsgate’s offering and opens in 1,107 locations. We might not yet be at the “acceptance” stage of grief in the theatrical market, but we do at least now have four major studios releasing films wide, with the two newcomers joining Universal and Warner Bros., who have taken more controversial routes that combine wide releases with early PVOD or streaming debuts for their films.
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December 1st, 2020
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The worst year for the movie theatrical industry in a century will end with a series of releases that might define the business for the next decade. Only three of the major studios are daring to release films in theaters during what is shaping up to be the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Sony Pictures is going the traditional route with Monster Hunter getting an exclusive theatrical release on Christmas Day. Universal’s deals with AMC and Cinemark to allow shortened theatrical windows in return for sharing PVOD revenue have prompted it and its specialty division Focus Features to release four films this holiday season. But all eyes (or many of them, anyway) will be on Warner Bros.’ release of Wonder Woman 1984 simultaneously in theaters and on HBO Max.
When the studio announced this release strategy back on November 18 there was speculation that, if it worked out well, they might do the same thing with some of their other upcoming films. Today they threw caution to the wind and announced that all of the studio’s 2021 films will be released in theaters and on HBO Max at the same time (in territories where HBO Max is available). While we’re still digesting the news, here are three quick takes on the rationale for Warner Bros. to make this bold leap.
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May 16th, 2017
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It is another terrible week on the home market. There are three first-run releases coming out this week, which isn’t a bad number. However, all three earned terrible reviews and bombed in theaters, so you should avoid all of them. There’s not a lot of limited releases, classics, or TV on DVD releases to make up the gap, so for the second week in a row, we have a Video on Demand release topping the list of best new releases. This week it is Logan, which is one of the best wide releases of the year. I would wait for the Blu-ray, on the other hand.
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January 1st, 2017
December box office numbers helped 2016 end on ... a note. The good news and the bad news almost exactly balance out. On the one hand, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story will finish the year with more than $400 million after just 16 days of release. That’s a stunning amount of money that helped 2016 earn a record box office at the domestic market. However, Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned $650 million during December of 2015, so the month lost a lot of its lead over 2015, so much so that ticket sales fell behind last year’s total. The weakness at the end of the year will spill over into 2017, which is terrible news. A slow start could result in the dominant box office story being 2017 struggles compared to 2016. Bad news like this can sometimes become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Sadly, 2017 is also going to get off to a slow start when it comes to wide releases / expansions. There are 16 films scheduled to open or expand wide this month and none of them are expected to get to $100 million. It is likely none of them will even get very close. xXx: Return of Xander Cage is expected to be the best of a weak bunch, but I could see it getting beat by one of the five Oscar contenders opening wide this month, if it gets off to a slow start and one of the Oscar contenders starts picking up steam. Hidden Figures got off to a great start on Christmas Day and should it continue to earn Awards Season recognition, including some Oscar nominations, it could be in wide release well into February. Last January wasn’t as busy with 13 films opening or expanding wide over five weeks. Of these, two of them, The Revenant and Kung Fu Panda 3, topped $100 million domestically, while another, Ride Along 2, came close. 2017 is going to get destroyed in the year-over-year comparison.
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January 31st, 2014
After a weak start, January rebounded and a couple of films on last month's preview cracked $100 million at the box office. Granted, Lone Survivor is technically a December release, but Ride Along will become one of the rare January releases to reach the century mark. Unfortunately, there doesn't appear to be too many February releases that have a real shot at $100 million. It is very likely that The Lego Movie will reach that milestone, but most of the rest of the movies will be lucky if they reach $50 million. Last February was very similar. We had one surprise $100 million hit, Identity Thief, plus a couple of solid midlevel hits, Warm Bodies, for instance. However, for the most part, the month was one miss after another. This means 2014 could continue its winning ways, or at the very least, shouldn't fall behind 2013's pace.
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