Weekend predictions: jackass forever headed for weekend win

February 4, 2022

jackass forever

Barring a massive slump for the two new releases, Spider-Man: No Way Home will finally lose its box office crown for good this weekend, possibly slipping into third place behind both jackass forever and Moonfall. jackass is looking the easy weekend winner, based on its overall pedigree and respectable preview numbers on Thursday.

Here’s what our model thinks of jackass’s chances for the weekend, first based on comparison with previous outings in the franchise, and second on its Thursday numbers…







The movie is landing very nearly in line with expectations so far. R-rated comedies usually do around 10 times their Thursday preview numbers over the full weekend, and there’s little reason to believe jackass won’t do the same. Our weighted prediction for the weekend stands at $18.1 million as of this morning, which would more than double Spider-Man’s expected earnings.

Moonfall is arguably a more interesting case, from a box office perspective.







Roland Emmerich has a long history as a director, and has made some iconic films. His recent track record has been a bit spotty though, and Lionsgate doesn’t often release films to huge opening-weekend numbers. Still, the model thought this one could do safely over $10 million prior to receiving those preview numbers. This may be a case of the previews being diminished by the competition, with folks more likely to check out jackass last night, and Moonfall could pick up steam through the weekend. Our weighted-average prediction says $9 million is the most likely outcome, and a close race with Spider-Man is likely.

The model gives Moonfall the edge right now:





We don’t have a prediction for The Wolf and the Lion, which has a shot at landing towards the bottom of the top 10.

The good news going into the weekend is that we should have an “up” weekend, with total earnings increasing around 60% from last weekend. The bad news is that this may be as good as it gets in February.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Moonfall, jackass forever, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Le loup et le lion