Monthly preview: October will be a horror show
September 30, 2020
A month ago, October’s line-up of new releases looked weak, but also suggested the movie industry was planning for a steady recovery. The last few weeks have blown that optimism out the water. Wonder Woman 1984, Death on the Nile, and Candyman have all moved from their planned October release dates, and Black Widow has retreated from the first week of November to May next year. 20th Century Studios (i.e., Disney) threw theaters a tiny bone in the form of The Empty Man, which moved up to October 23, but the message is clear: a recovery in the theatrical business is still a long way away, if it comes at all.
One reason for all this is that Tenet has performed weakly. Its $41.2 million after four weeks in theaters is less than what Warner Bros. would have hoped from from its opening weekend under normal circumstances. The sobering fact is that the film could well remain number one for the whole of October. Although there’s a chance theaters will open in New York City and major cities in California this month, there’s not much new to draw theatergoers. A recent article in The Hollywood Reporter goes into details of how some theaters are reacting by reducing their hours and even shutting on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays. The battle for survival of the theatrical industry will play out between now and the end of the year. Whether any closings will be announced between now and the election is more a matter of politics than economics, but some major structural changes seem likely in early November, if not before.
Peter and his Grandpa Jack used to be very close but when Grandpa Jack moves in with the family, Peter is forced to give up his most prized possession: his bedroom. Peter will stop at nothing to get his room back, scheming with friends to devise a series of pranks to drive him out. But Grandpa doesn’t give up easily, and it turns into an all-out war between the two.
There’s very little evidence that families are enthusiastic to return to theaters right now, although The SpongeBox Movie has earned $4.4 million in Canada over the last couple of months. The War with Grandpa doesn’t look likely to match that performance, even with the benefit of playing throughout North America. That it’s getting this kind of release at all is honestly a little puzzling.
Wanting to lead an honest life, a notorious bank robber turns himself in, only to be double-crossed by two ruthless FBI agents.
Thrillers have performed well compared to other genre films since theaters reopened, and Unhinged has earned $17 million in total so far. This outing for Liam Neeson looks like it could do similar business. It might even open at number one, with a $4 million debut a good target if it gets into enough theaters. Right now, it looks like the best bet to knock Tenet off its perch at the top of the chart.
On the trail of a missing girl, an ex-cop comes across a secretive group attempting to summon a terrifying supernatural entity.
Disney just moved this film into its current date, so it seems likely that it’ll actually open on October 23. Its timing is obviously good for a horror movie, and The New Mutants’s $20 million total domestic box office would look like a possibility if it wasn’t for the fact that the movie doesn’t yet have a released trailer or any appreciable marketing. Our $15 million projection assumes it will get some sort of a push from Disney, but there’s very little time to build enthuasism.
A married man being tricked into a murder scheme by a seductive female police detective.
This is another film that seems to have a firm release date, but no marketing yet. If Lionsgate makes some effort, it could hit the kind of numbers Unhinged has managed, which would translate into about $7 million–$8 million in theatrical rental revenue. The studio’s equation is probably how best to spend around $5 million on marketing. Given the many uncertainties in the economy and the industry, perhaps waiting for a burst in the last two weeks before release makes the most sense. It certainly gives them the option of pulling the release at the last minute and saving the money if things are looking really dire.
-3-News.jpg)
The War with Grandpa
-Thumbnail.jpg)
Distributor: 101 Studios
Release Date: October 9th, 2020
MPAA Rating: PG for rude humor, language, and some thematic elements.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Comedy
Keywords:
Dysfunctional Family, Generational Conflict, Delayed Release, Development Hell, Disrupted by COVID-19 pandemic, Family Comedy
Directed By: Tim Hill
Starring: Robert De Niro, Oakes Fegley
Box Office Potential: $3 million
Honest Thief
Release Date: October 16th, 2020
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for strong violence, crude references and brief strong language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords:
FBI, Corrupt Cops, Disrupted by COVID-19 pandemic, Crime Thriller, Bank Robbery
Directed By: Mark Williams
Written By: Mark Williams, Steve Allrich
Starring: Liam Neeson, Kate Walsh
Box Office Potential: $15 million
The Empty Man
Release Date: October 23rd, 2020
MPAA Rating: R for violence, disturbing images, language, some sexuality and nudity.
Source: Based on Comic/Graphic Novel
Genre: Horror
Keywords:
Supernatural, Disrupted by COVID-19 pandemic, Missing Person, Death of a Son or Daughter, Death of a Spouse or Fiancée / Fiancé
Directed By: David Prior
Written By: David Prior, Cullen Bunn, Vanesa R. Del Rey
Starring: James Badge Dale
Box Office Potential: $15 million
Fatale
Release Date: October 30th, 2020
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords:
Disrupted by COVID-19 pandemic, Infidelity, Relationships Gone Wrong, Psychological Thriller
Directed By: Deon Taylor
Written By: David Loughery, Deon Taylor
Starring: Michael Ealy, Hilary Swank
Box Office Potential: $15 million
Filed under: Monthly Preview, Tenet, Robert De Niro, Liam Neeson, Michael Ealy, Tim Hill, Hilary Swank, Kate Walsh, Deon Taylor, James Badge Dale, Matt Ember, Lisa Addario, Joe Syracuse, Tom J. Astle, David Loughery, David Prior, Oakes Fegley, Mark Williams, Robert Kimmel Smith, Cullen Bunn, Vanesa R. Del Rey, Steve Allrich