Weekend Estimates: Rise of Skywalker Falls from Projections, but Still Tops the Chart
December 22, 2019
There are some mixed results on the weekend chart with some films topping expectations, while others are struggling mightily. Fortunately, the former category includes Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, which is topping my prediction, albeit by a very small margin at $175.5 million, well below the $190 million projections based on Friday’s estimates. Yesterday, it looked like Rise of Skywalker would have similar legs to The Last Jedi. Granted, this film’s reviews and its B plus rating from CinemaScore are weaker than the previous film, but this one will have more help with the holidays. Christmas break has begun, so that should have boosted Sunday’s numbers, but sadly, that doesn’t appear to be the case. However, and this is an important point, the film is still doing fantastic business, with the third-biggest December weekend ever, and it should be a monster hit in the end.
Internationally, The Rise of Skywalker is also doing great business with an opening of $198.0 million in 52 markets. This includes openings of $26.8 million in the U.K. and $21.8 million in Germany. The film also cracked $10 million in France ($15.2 million); Japan ($14.6 million); Australia ($12.6 million); and China $12.1 million. It has yet to open in South Korea, as well as Vietnam and the Philippines, so it isn’t completely done and it is clearly on pace to crack $1 billion domestically. This is more than enough to break even, even if it is below the Star Wars average under Disney.
Jumanji: The Next Level is holding on better than anticipated with $26.13 million over the weekend, which would give it a running tally of $101.94 million after just two weeks of release. With Christmas just days away... Yikes. ... The movie should have a very lucrative week ahead of it and it should have no trouble becoming a very profitable hit. Internationally, it pulled in $32.6 million on 23,100 screens in 52 markets for totals of $210 million internationally and $312 million worldwide. The film is practically guaranteed a healthy profit at this point and yet another installment in the franchise is almost certainly on its way.
Frozen II is managing third place according to the estimates with $12.3 million over the weekend for a total of $386.5 million after a month of release. The film will hit $400 million by this time next week, making it the fifth film released in 2019 to get to that milestone. It won’t be the last.
Cats is bombing with an estimated $6.5 million in 3,380 theaters. If this estimate holds, then it will open with a theater average below $2,000. Add in its reviews and its mere C plus from CinemaScore and the movie will have almost no legs. Or to be more accurate, it will have short legs compared to most Christmas releases.
Knives Out is rounding out the top five with $6.13 million over the weekend for a total of $87.59 million after four weeks of release. It is on pace to hit $100 million domestically, likely before the end of the year.
Bombshell is missing the top five with just $5.08 million over the weekend, for a total of $5.48 million, including its week of limited release. The film’s reviews are the best of the weekend, but even so, there are just good and not great. They are certainly not award-worthy and the movie was clearly made to win awards. Struggling at the box office won’t help its chances, as you can’t vote for a movie you didn’t see.
- Friday Estimates: Star Wars is Going to Have a Green Christmas
- Weekend Box Office Chart
-6-News.jpg)
- Thursday Night Previews: Skywalker’s Box Office Chances Rise
- Weekend Predictions: Will Star Wars Heat up the Christmas Week Box Office?
- Theater Counts: Rise of Skywalker Opens in 4,406 Theaters
- Thursday previews
- Friday estimates
- Saturday estimates
- Sunday estimates
- Biggest weekends at the box office
- December weekend record chart
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Frozen II, Jumanji: The Next Level, Cats, Knives Out, Bombshell, Star Wars, Jumanji