Weekend Predictions: Can a Dynamic Duo of Sequels Stop the Joker?
October 18, 2019
There are two wide releases this week and both of them are delayed sequels. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil is widely expected to top the box office chart this weekend, but it is also widely expected to fail to match the original by a huge margin. On the other hand, Zombieland: Double Tap will likely only manage third place, but it has a real shot at matching Zombieland, at least in terms of raw dollars. By comparison, this weekend last year saw the near record-setting debut of Halloween. (It would have set the October record, had Venom not set it two weeks earlier.) I really thought 2019 would have a chance to win in the year-over-year comparison, but unless Maleficent: Mistress of Evil really beats expectations, that’s not going to happen.
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil is not earning good reviews, but I remain cautiously optimistic. After all, the original Maleficent also earned mixed reviews, but not only is it my favorite of the live-action Disney remakes, it was also a monster hit, so I’m not alone it loving it. However, the buzz for Mistress of Evil hasn’t been good, even taking this into account. “Unnecessary” seems to be the keyword here, as far as potential moviegoers are concerned, so I fear it will have a much slower start and not have the word-of-mouth needed to compensate for that. On the low end, the film will earn just under half what its predecessor made, leaving it with an opening of $34 million. On the high end, it will earn $45 million. I fear the low end is more likely and I’m going with a $38 million debut.
Joker had a stellar hold last weekend down just 42% to $55.86 million. Most films hold on better during their third weekend of release, but this seems overly optimistic in this case. It is possible it has the same hold, giving it between $32 million and $33 million over the weekend, while there are some who are more bullish than that predicting $35 million over the weekend. I think being a little more cautious is the wise thing to do and I’m going with just over $30 million, which would still be a baffling hold for a film like this and push its running to nearly $250 million after just three weeks of release. 2019 needed a surprise monster hit to close the gap between it and 2018 and Joker is doing it practically single-handedly.
Zombieland: Double Tap is hitting theaters ten years after the release of the original. A gap like this can prove fatal for the sequel, as fans of the original might have moved on, while newcomers won’t remember the first film well enough to care about the sequel. This film’s reviews are fine, but not nearly as good as the first film’s reviews were and that will further hurt its chances. I do think it still has a small chance at earning $30 million during its opening weekend, but it could also barely earn more than $20 million over the next three days. I’m going with a prediction of $25 million, which is solid, but not spectacular.
The Addams Family already has a sequel in the works and is planned for a 2021 release. That’s all you need to know to judge the film’s box office performance so far. Look for about $18 million over the weekend, putting it on pace for to earn $100 million domestically in total.
Gemini Man will round out the top five with about $9 million. At this point, it will need to be a much bigger hit internationally just to save face.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Gemini Man, Zombieland: Double Tap, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, The Addams Family, Joker