Weekend Estimates: Joker Setting October Sophomore Record with $55 million
October 13, 2019
Joker is setting the record for the biggest sophomore weekend in October. It is estimated to earn $55.0 million over the weekend, which is nearly $12 million more than the current record held by Gravity. It is also nearly $20 million more than Venom earned during its second weekend of release. If this estimate holds, then Joker will have earned nearly $192.7 million after just ten days of release. Furthermore, its international numbers are just as potent with a weekend haul of $123.7 million on 24,000 screens in 79 markets giving it totals of $351.2 million internationally and $543.9 million worldwide. Given its legs so far, $1 billion worldwide seems like a safe bet. It would be nice to get a billion dollar hit from 2019 that isn’t from Disney / Marvel. The film had a pair of stunning debuts in France ($10.3 million on 630 screens) and Germany ($9.3 million on 912). However, its biggest weekend haul was in the U.K., where it was down just 22%, earning $12.0 million on 1,472 screens for a two-week total of $36.9 million.
The Addams Family is also beating predictions with an estimated $30.29 million during its opening weekend. Its reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore aren’t going to help its legs, but Halloween should give it a boost at the end of the month. It is also the last animated film to be released this month, so the lack of direct competition should also help its legs. We have no word on the film’s international numbers, but since the film reportedly only cost $24 million to make, it won’t need to find a major audience internationally to break even early in its home market run. In fact, this is a film that could break even based solely on increased merchandise sales of the IP.
It looks like Gemini Man won’t slipped below $20 million during its opening weekend, as its estimate is $20.5 million. Then again, the film reportedly cost $140 million, so even a $40 million opening would have been seen as a disappointment. Its reviews are hurting its box office, while its B plus from CinemaScore isn’t helping. It is way too early to judge the film’s international chances, but it did make $3 million in both France and Germany, which is a bit better than it did here. At this point, it is looking to make enough to save face, nothing more.
Abominable matched expectations with $6.17 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $47.97 million. This is on the low end of expectations, but its direct competition performed better than expected, so this is still a solid result. The film is performing better internationally, earning $15.0 million over the weekend for a total of $60.1 million so far. This includes a $2.69 million debut in the U.K. and a $1.45 million opening in Spain. The film earned second place in both markets. It has yet to open in a number of markets, including France, so it has a real shot at more than $150 million worldwide, which would be enough to break even, eventually.
Downton Abbey is next with an estimated $4.9 million over the weekend for a total of $82.69 million after four weeks of release. The film also made $4.1 million internationally for a total of $70.0 million so far. However, it has yet to open in 20 markets, including a handful of major markets. In fact, it doesn’t end its international run until it gets to Japan in January. With a little luck, it will reach $250 million worldwide when it does.
Jexi bombed with $3.1 million during its opening weekend. It also has the worst reviews of the three wide release and its B minus from CinemaScore was likewise the worst of the three. Moving on.
Parasite is looking to break the record for the best theater average of the year earning an average of $125,421 in three theaters, according to estimates. This would demolish the current yearly best of $87,833 held by The Farewell. Unfortunately, it is the only limited release we have numbers for that did well, so it could be a very shallow weekend on the theater average chart.
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Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Gemini Man, Abominable, The Addams Family, Joker, Downton Abbey, Jexi, Parasite (기생충)