Friday Estimates: Downton Abbey has Class

September 21, 2019

Downton Abbey

Downton Abbey stunned analysts with an opening day of $13.38 million on Friday. However, this does include two days of previews, so keep that in mind going forward. The film’s reviews are in the 80% range, while it managed an A from CinemaScore. Both of these results suggest longer than average legs, but not enough to deal with the two days of previews. It should open with more than $30 million, which is not only much better than anticipated, it will be the best opening weekend for Focus Features.

Rambo: Last Blood opened in second place, but with just $7.17 million during its opening day, it won’t stay there long. The film earned weak reviews and only managed a B from CinemaScore. That said, it is on pace for $18 million over the weekend, more or less.

Ad Astra was right behind with $7.16 million. On the one hand, its reviews are much better and that should help its legs. On the other hand, it only managed a B minus from CinemaScore, which is terrible, especially for this type of movie. Its target audience suggests longer legs than Rambo: Last Blood, giving it $19 million over the full weekend. This isn’t a bad opening for this time of year, but it isn’t enough for a film that cost $80 million to make.

Hustlers was next with $5.41 million on Friday, down 59% from its opening Friday. It will bounce back over the rest of the weekend and could come within a rounding error of our prediction. Even if it doesn’t, $16 million seems likely at this point, meaning it is on pace to reach $100 million domestically, but it might need a push from the studio, STX Entertainment, to get there.

It: Chapter Two rounded out the top five with $4.83 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $16 million over the full weekend. It is on pace to crack $200 million domestically, but it will fall out of the top five before then.

Filed under: Friday Estimates, Ad Astra, It: Chapter Two, Hustlers, Downton Abbey, Rambo: Last Blood