Weekend Predictions: Can Hustle Con Its Way Past It?
September 12, 2019
There are only two wide releases this weekend, Hustlers and The Goldfinch. The buzz surrounding Hustlers has grown at the perfect time, but it has a non-zero chance of topping It: Chapter Two for top spot on the weekend box office chart. On the other hand, The Goldfinch is seen as busted Oscar-bait and will only open in the top five due to extremely weak competition. This weekend last year, The Predator earned first place with close to $25 million, while the other two wide releases earned about that combined. This means last year’s three new releases will be more potent than this year’s two new releases, but I think 2019 will earn a comfortable win, in part thanks to this year’s much better depth.
It: Chapter Two missed expectations earning $91.06 million during its opening weekend. This weekend it is expected to fall around 60%. Its reviews are not going to help, nor will its status as a sequel. That said, a 60% decline to $36 million is still an excellent result and will push its running tally high enough to cover its reported $65 million to $70 million production budget.
Hustlers is based on a real life story of a group of strippers who “took advantage” of a group of Wall Street brokers. The reviews are nearly 90% positive and the studio, STX Entertainment, has found most of its success with a female-centric R-rated comedy series, Bad Moms. At first, I thought this film would earn just over $20 million during its opening weekend, but earn longer than average legs. However, the buzz is growing faster than anticipated and its box office potential rose to $30 million, with some predicting as high as $35 million. If it did reach that height, then it would be in position to overtake It: Chapter Two for top spot. That said, the buzz hasn’t been a great predictor of box office success this year, as a lot of films have failed to live up to the hype. Because of this, I’m choosing to be more cautious and I’m going to predict $24 million during its opening weekend.
The Goldfinch is busted Oscar-bait. It’s a prestige story, but it is earning simply awful reviews. Worse still, since it is aimed at a more mature audience, its target audience is more likely to read these reviews. On the positive side, it could miss the Mendoza Line and still land in third place, because there is no competition. I don’t think it will be that bad, but it could be close with just over $6 million during its opening weekend.
Good Boys and Angel Has Fallen will be next, both with between $3 million and $4 million. Both films are already solid midlevel hits and both are on track to break even early in their home market runs.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Good Boys, It: Chapter Two, The Goldfinch, Angel Has Fallen, Hustlers, Bad Moms