Weekend Wrap-Up: New Releases Miss Expectations and Estimates
June 11, 2019
It was a mixed weekend at the box office with neither of the two new releases matching expectations. Not only that, but most of the top five missed estimates as well. This led to a result 5.6% lower than last weekend falling to $164 million. I was really expecting growth this weekend. The Secret Life of Pets 2 led the way with $46.65 million, while Dark Phoenix really struggled with just $32.83 million. Aladdin was arguably the only real bright spot in the top five this weekend. Fortunately, this weekend last year was even worse and 2019 was able to win the year-over-year comparison by a whopping 37%. This allowed 2019 to close the gap between it and 2018 to just $300 million or 5.9% at $4.78 billion to $5.08 billion. That’s still a large gap, but it is far cry from where it once was.
The Secret Life of Pets 2 struggled with just $46.65 million during its opening weekend. Granted, that’s a solid start for a film that cost $80 million to make, but it is a far cry from the $100 million opening the original managed. I blame the advertising, which seemed to focus more on individual character jokes than giving audiences a reason to see this movie. Having fun characters is important for a family film, but so is having a plot, because without it, you can just watch the original again and skip the sequel. Critics also had a much lower opinion of this movie compared to the original, while it tied the original with an A minus from CinemaScore. The film’s legs likely won’t be great, not with direct competition on the horizon, but it still should break even sometime during its the home market run.
Dark Phoenix won’t be as lucky. The film cost $200 million to make, but only managed a mere $32.83 million during its opening weekend. Not only that, it earned the worst reviews of the X-men franchise at just 23% positive and the weakest CinemaScore at just B minus. Because this film was made before Disney bought Fox, it is unclear who is going to lose money on this venture, but it is going to lose money.
Aladdin was the only film in the top five top top expectations and weekend estimates earning $24.68 million over the weekend for a total of $232.57 million after four. The film will become just the third film released in 2019 to cross $250 million domestically, but direct competition will probably keep it from getting to $300 million. That said, it has done well enough so far to guarantee a profit sooner rather than later.
Godzilla: King of the Monsters plummet from first to fourth with just $15.45 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $78.51 million. The film cost $170 million to make, so if it had opened with $78.51 million, it still wouldn’t have been a runaway hit. Fortunately, the film is doing much better internationally, specifically in China, and that could save the MonsterVerse. Godzilla vs. Kong is already in production, but perhaps the next movie will have a much more Asian cast.
Rocketman rounded out the top five with $13.82 million for a two-week total of $50.31 million. It isn’t a smash hit, but this is already more than it cost to make, so it should be solidly profitable. And let’s face facts, Paramount has been struggling so much that this result is worth celebrating.
MA was the only sophomore stint film not in the top five, but it held on well for a horror film down 57% to $7.83 million for the weekend and $32.78 million after two. This is very likely more than the movie cost to make and advertise, so it is almost assure a healthy profit at this point.
- The Secret Life of Pets 2 Comparisons
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- Dark Phoenix Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Wrap-up, Godzilla: King of the Monsters, The Secret Life of Pets 2, Dark Phoenix, Aladdin, Rocketman, MA, X-Men, MonsterVerse