Weekend Estimates: Godzilla Towers Above the Competition
June 2, 2019
As expected, Godzilla: King of the Monsters is leading the way on the weekend box office chart. However, it is falling a little short of expectations with an estimated opening weekend of $49.03 million. The film earned a B plus from CinemaScore, which is much better than its reviews, but still not stellar, while the genre isn’t known for long legs, so I’m not sure about its future. It is performing a lot better internationally with $130 million on 52,000 screens in 75 markets, including $70 million in China and $8.4 million in Japan. It has nearly matched its $200 million production budget in just one weekend, while it has yet to open in Spain and a few smaller markets.
Aladdin is holding on a little better than expected, down just 54% to $42.34 million for a two-week total of $185.03 million. This is already more than it likely cost to make, which is a great sign for its financial success. Internationally, the film is doing even better, earning $78.3 million in 54 markets for totals of $260.9 million internationally and $445.9 million worldwide. The film is already ahead of the final numbers for Dumbo, the previous live-action Disney remake, while it has yet to open in Japan.
It appears Rocketman is bouncing back from Friday’s $22 million projection with an estimated $25 million opening weekend. Furthermore, the film has the best reviews of the weekend at 90% positive and the best CinemaScore of the weekend at an A minus. Additionally, it is aimed at a more mature target demographic, so this should add up to easily the best legs of the weekend as well. This is good news for Paramount, which frankly needs every little bit of help it can get. The studio’s highest grossing film of 2019 is still Bumblebee, which came out in 2018.
If estimates hold, then MA will land on the high end of expectations with $18.26 million. The film’s reviews and its B minus from CinemaScore are both better than average for a horror movie, so hopefully this will boost its legs going forward. On the downside, the film failed to find an audience internationally with an opening of just $2.8 million in 31 markets. Its best market was the U.K., but it only managed $585,000 there according to estimates. It should still break even relatively early in its home market run.
John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum is coming within a rounding error of our prediction with an estimated $11.1 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $125.8 million. If the film has some long trailing legs, it will reach $150 million domestically. Meanwhile, the movie is earning $12.7 million in 77 markets internationally for a total of $95.9 million so far. It will become the first film in the franchise to reach $100 million internationally and it will do so very shortly.
Avengers: Endgame is not living up to expectations with an estimated $7.8 million over the weekend for a total of $815.5 million so far. It also added $8.6 million internationally for totals of $1.898 billion abroad and $2.713 billion worldwide. The film only needs $63.2 million more worldwide to earn first place on the all-time worldwide chart; however, unless it has long trailing legs, this isn’t going to happen. That said, Disney could try and give it a boost over the top when Spider-man: Far from Home hits theaters in July.
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Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Godzilla: King of the Monsters, Avengers: Endgame, Dumbo, Aladdin, John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum, Rocketman, MA, John Wick