Friday Estimates: Godzilla Tops Competition, but with a Soft Touch
June 1, 2019
Godzilla: King of the Monsters dominated the chart on Friday with $19.61 million on its opening day. The film needed to open with a couple of million dollars more than $20 million to match our prediction, but it will come close enough. Its reviews are weak and it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore, which is not great either. It appears the film is aimed at Kaiju fans and might not appeal to all action fans. That said, it is on pace to earn $50 million during its opening weekend, which is enough to be a financial success, assuming it does as well internationally.
Aladdin was next with $11.91 million on Friday, which is 62% lower than its opening Friday. This is actually a better than expected by a (very) small margin. It should earn $42 million over the weekend instead of the $41 million we predicted.
Rocketman missed expectations with just $9.2 million during its opening day, putting it on pace for about $22 million during its opening weekend. This is much weaker than its reviews or its A minus from CinemaScore would suggest. I guess I underestimated how much the film’s R-rating would affect its box office numbers.
MA, on the other hand, beat expectations with $7.24 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $18 million over the weekend. Its reviews are still above the overall positive level, while it earned a B minus from CinemaScore. That’s actually impressive for a horror film. The film cost just $5 million to make and even with an advertising budget that is likely more than $20 million, it will break even just on its theatrical numbers.
John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum rounded out the top five on Friday with $3.0 million, putting it on pace for close to $11 million over the weekend. This is a sharper decline than anticipated, but still a solid result.
Avengers: Endgame added $2.07 million on Friday, but this is also lower than expected. If this is a sign of weak trailing legs, then its chances of hitting number one on the all-time worldwide chart will be in trouble.
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Filed under: Friday Estimates, Godzilla: King of the Monsters, Avengers: Endgame, Aladdin, John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum, Rocketman, MA