Weekend Estimates: John Wick Wrecks the Competition
May 19, 2019
John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum is way ahead of the weekend competition with a projected $57.03 million opening weekend. This is not only more than the next two films combined, it is more than the first film in the John Wick franchise earned domestically. Add in the film’s reviews, its A minus from CinemaScore, and Memorial Day long weekend, which is next weekend, and it should have relatively long legs. $150 million domestically isn’t out of the question. Like the other films in the John Wick franchise, this one isn’t doing as well internationally. However, it is still step up from the second film with an opening weekend of $35.2 million from 66 markets. This includes number one debuts in the U.K. ($4.6 million) and Australia ($2.8 million), while it had to settle for second place in Russia ($3.8 million) and third place in Mexico ($2.1 million). The film likely cost $50 million to make and an equal amount to advertise, while Lionsgate’s share of the global opening weekend is likely north of $40 million. The film is on pace to break even before it reaches the home market.
Avengers: Endgame is matching predictions perfectly with an estimated $29.41 million over the weekend for a four-week total of $770.81 million. The film has become the second-highest-grossing domestic film of all time, overtaking Avatar in the process. It will earn a projected $46.8 million internationally this weekend, for totals of $1.844 billion internationally and $2.615 billion worldwide.
Pokémon: Detective Pikachu is also matching expectations perfectly with a sophomore stint of $24.82 million for a two-week total of $94.00 million. It held on a little better internationally with an estimated $53.8 million on 32,000 screens in 72 markets for totals of $193.4 million internationally and $287.3 million worldwide. This includes a number one debut in Russia with $4.3 million on 3,085 screens. Its best market was China with a sophomore stint of $17.2 million on approximately 15,000 screens for a two-week total of $70.3 million. On the downside, the film cost $150 million to make, so it hasn’t quite made enough theatrically to cover that figure. On the other hand, it will break even soon enough and there’s already a sequel in the works and perhaps an entire live-action Pokémon cinematic universe will follow.
A Dog’s Journey really bounced back on Saturday, helping it towards a projected $8.0 million during its opening weekend. This is still a large drop-off from the first film, but it is not as bad as the Friday numbers would indicate. The film’s reviews have fallen below 50% positive, but it earned an A from CinemaScore, so its legs should be just fine. It will earn about $13.9 million internationally for an early total of $15.5 million.
The Hustle if falling a little big faster than anticipated, down 53% to $6.08 million for a two-week total of $23.15 million. Internationally, it is earning $9.5 million for totals of $28.1 million internationally and $51.3 million worldwide.
The Sun is Also A Star is missing the Mendoza Line with an estimated $2.6 million in just over 2,000 theaters. The film’s reviews are just 50% positive, it only managed a B minus from CinemaScore, and theater owners will be looking to drop the film as soon as they are contractually able to. All of this adds up to short legs.
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Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Avengers: Endgame, The Hustle, John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum, Pokémon: Detective Pikachu, The Sun is Also a Star, A Dog’s Journey, John Wick