Weekend Estimates: Aquaman Easily Tops Weekend Chart, Poppins / Bumblebee Need Long Legs
December 23, 2018
Aquaman is the only certifiable hit of the weekend with an estimated opening of $67.4 million over the weekend for a total of $72.1 million including last week’s paid previews. This is not more than we predicted, but it is dominating the chart, because the competition didn’t show up. It should hit $100 million by the end of Christmas Day. Its reviews are good, but not great, and the same is true of its A minus from CinemaScore. It is also a comic book movie and those tend to have shorter legs, so it might not get as large a multiplier as the average Christmas weekend release, but it should be a large enough hit that Warner Bros. will keep this new direction going for the DCEU. Internationally, it is earning an estimated $91.3 million on 31,930 screens in 70 markets for a three-week total of $410.7 million. Overall, it is tracking ahead of every other film in the DCEU, but a lot of that has to do with China.
Mary Poppins Returns is earning second place as expected, but with only $22.24 million over the weekend for $31.05 million so far. It will earn less over the full week than most people thought it would earn over the three-day weekend. It should have long legs thanks to its target audience, as well as its 78% positive score on Rotten Tomatoes and A minus from CinemaScore. However, it is not going to be the monster his most people assumed it would be. Internationally, the results were about the same. The film is doing very well in the U.K. with an estimated $9.4 million, including previews, while its $2.8 million debut in Italy is better than its estimated opening here. On the other hand, it was only okay in France ($2.0 million) and Germany ($1.9 million). It will make a profit, but Disney is ending the year on a soft note.
The box office hype surrounding Bumblebee turned out to be just that, hype, as it is earning an estimated $21.0 million during its opening weekend. To be fair, this isn’t a bad start for this time of year and with no direct competition opening from now until... February? I’m honestly not sure if any January release is direct competition for this film. Regardless, the lack of competition should help the film earn long legs and $100 million domestically isn’t out of the question. We will have a better idea where it will end up this time next week.
As expected, Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse is sitting in fourth place over the weekend with an estimated $16.7 million for a two-week total of $64.8 million. This is a sharper decline than we anticipated, but the film should still top its $90 million production budget by the end of the year and it will have no trouble breaking even sometime on the home market. This is true, even with mixed international numbers. The film is already playing in 53 markets, but it only has $64.8 million, including $38 million this weekend. It was a surprisingly strong hit in China with $26.1 million. That market doesn’t really do animation and this is the fourth-biggest opening for an animated film there.
The Mule is also falling faster than anticipated with $9.31 million over the weekend for a total of $35.01 million after two weeks of release. There was no direct competition for this film, so this result is harder to explain. It got an A minus from CinemaScore, so weak word-of-mouth isn’t a good explanation either. Maybe its target audience didn’t want to trek out to theaters with so many films aimed at teens and families opening wide.
It looks like Second Act will come close to $10 million over the five-day weekend after earning $6.5 million over the three-day weekend. The film only cost $15.7 million to make, so it should be a financial hit thanks to the holiday legs. Granted, its reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore won’t help, but they are not so bad that they will hurt the film’s legs either.
On the other hand, Welcome to Marwen bombed with just $2.36 million during the weekend. This is below the Mendoza Line, so even if it has good legs, theater owners will be looking to drop it as soon as they are contractually able to. Not that it matters, because good legs are not in this film’s future. Its reviews are terrible and it only managed a B minus from CinemaScore. It will be forgotten by the end of the year.
- Aquaman Comparisons
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- Mary Poppins Returns Comparisons
- Bumblebee Comparisons
- Second Act Comparisons
- Welcome to Marwen Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Aquaman, Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse 3D, Bumblebee, Welcome to Marwen, Second Act, The Mule, DC Extended Universe