Weekend Predictions: New Release in Hot Pursuit of Ultron
May 7, 2015
The Avengers: Age of Ultron will continue to lead the way at the box office this weekend, but Hot Pursuit hopes to at least put in a good showing as counter-programming. Its reviews suggest that will be an uphill battle. Additionally, Age of Ultron will probably suffer a pretty big drop when compared to last week, because it is a comic book movie, its a sequel and its reviews are lower than its predecessor's were. This weekend last year, Neighbors opened with close to $50 million. Age of Ultron will earn more than that. It could earn more than Neighbors and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 made combined, while Hot Pursuit will make twice what the two counter-programming releases made last year. 2015 should come away with an easy win.
The Avengers: Age of Ultron opened with $191.27 million last week, which was the second biggest opening weekend of all time. This weekend, it will very likely fall between 50% and 60%, giving it projections between $95 million and $77 million. I think the lower end is more likely for a couple of reasons. Firstly, its reviews are only good and not stunning like with The Avengers. Secondly, sequels tends to fall faster than their original films do. Thirdly, this film sets up a lot of things that won't pay off until the end of Phase 3 of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, which hurts replace value. On the plus side, the competition is really weak. Look for a sophomore stint of $84 million and a ten-day total of about $320 million.
When I first saw the trailer for Hot Pursuit, I figured it would be like The Heat, only not as good. I figure its Tomatometer Score would be close to 50% positive, which isn't terrible for a wide release. At the moment, its Tomatometer Score is 6% positive. This would be terrible for a low-expectations Boobs and Blood horror film. On the other hand, Identity Thief wasn't that much better and it earned more than $100 million here. On the high end, Hot Pursuit might crack $20 million during its opening weekend. On the low end, it will struggle to reach the teens. I'm going with $15 million.
The rest of the top five will barely make an impact at the box office. The Age of Adaline could remain in third place, again, with just over $3 million. Its target audience is helping it earn better than average legs and it will end its run as a middling hit. It won't be a huge financial success, but it will cover expenses, eventually.
Furious 7 will be right behind with $3 million. Its theater count is starting to slip at an accelerated pace, but it is already one of the biggest hits of all time, so the studio is too busy counting dollar bills to pay attention.
Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 should round out the top five with just under $3 million. It is on pace to break even sooner rather than later, but it failed to live up to the first film.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Age of Adaline, Avengers: Age of Ultron, Furious 7, Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2, Hot Pursuit, Marvel Cinematic Universe