Will Lara Croft bring Life to the Box Office?

July 25, 2003

Another week, another three movie compete for the all-important opening weekend. This time we have two sequels and a biopic competing. However, only one movie has a real chance at taking the top spot.

Somewhere in Paramount there is someone asking, 'Is it too late to get our money back on Tomb Raider?' With a price tag the same as the first, but prospects that are much, much lower. No prediction I've seen has it matching the original's $47.7 million, and some even go as low as $30 million. I'd go that low too, especially considering some of the reviews. Any way you slice it, 25% is bad, but it's much higher than the orginal's 18%. Still, most moviegoers are wary of sequels so I think $33 million will be as good as it gets, and big drops will be in store for the coming weeks.

Staying in second and moving in on $200 million is Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl. By Tuesday it had overtaken Bad Boys II for top spot and is tracking for another sub 30% loss. $26 million and a place in the Top 100 of All Time will happen this weekend. And it should make $200 million by the end of the next.

Bad Boys II has really fallen during the week. By Tuesday it was traking similar to Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle, and that movie lost more than 60% during its second weekend. I don't think Bad Boys II will do quite so bad, but it will drop a lot. Just north of $20 million for the weekend and $100 million is now a safe bet.

The third installment in the Spy Kids trilogy is here. Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over is getting just average reviews and its 53% postive at Rotten Tomatoes is quite a drop from the first two. Kids movies should be more impervious to the sudden sequel adversion at the box office. But beating the last movie will be difficult. A slightly better opening at $19 million the first weekend is an improvement, but $75 million overall is a bit of a drop.

The last movie to open wide this week is Seabiscuit. Opening in less than 2000 theatres will hurt its box office. But the reviews will not; 79% is the best-reviewed wide release of the week. The highest predictions are more than double the lowest, and I'd be more inclined to agree with the low end here. $12 million for the weekend and no come from behind finish here.

Lastly, the Finding Nemo watch continues. These weekend it will earn about $6 million, putting its total at nearly $314 million. That will make it the highest grossing animated movie of all time beating The Lion King. It will also put it ahead of The Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring and into the top ten of all time.

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Filed under: Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, Bad Boys II, Seabiscuit, Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over, Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle, Lara Croft: Tomb Raider: The Cradle of Life