Nothing Golden About the Wide Releases

January 21, 2005

The weekend after the Golden Globe Awards will not be remembered for the high quality of the new releases. With most of the awards going to smaller films, the awards probably won't have any impact on the top five. In fact, there probably won't be any change at the top spot and only one change in the top five.

After a surprising and convincing victory last weekend, Coach Carter looks likely to repeat at top spot, although it should be a pretty close race. A drop of just 40% for its second weekend leaves just over $14.5 million, which puts its total box office above its budget after just 2 weeks. Strong legs and a lack of competition could help the film make a profit before its domestic run is over. Which is good news financially, since Basketball films tend to not be huge draws outside the United States.

Meet the Fockers should repeat in second place with an amazing $13.5 million during its fifth weekend of release. This will be enough to lift the film past $250 million and into fifth place for 2004 moving ahead of Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban.

The first new release of the weekend is Are We There Yet?, which some are comparing to Johnson Family Vacation, which is not a good sign. Are We There Yet? is currently earning worse reviews than Johnson Family Vacation earned, but it is so close as to not matter. On the plus side, Are We There Yet? has much bigger star power and a much wider opening, all of which should add up to a $13 million debut.

With a rather large expansion in its theater count, In Good Company should have the legs to stay in the top five at least one more weekend. Add in the fact that this weekend's prediction is $10 million, slightly above last weekend's prediction, and this film is already a success beyond most analysts' expectations.

Rounding out the top five should be Racing Stripes with just over $8 million, which is a mostly unnoteworthy result. It should be enough, however, to help the film become profitable early in its home market release.

The final wide release of the week, Assault on Precinct 13 stumbled out of the gate on Wednesday picking up less than $800,000. The only hope the studio has at this point is if not enough people knew the film opened on Wednesday, but if that is the case, the chances are moviegoers didn't know because they didn't care. Even with the good word-of-mouth better than expected reviews should help generate, the film will have an almost impossible task to match earlier predictions. So I'm lowering it to $6 million. Even that may be generous.

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Filed under: Meet the Fockers, Coach Carter, Racing Stripes, In Good Company, Assault On Precinct 13, Are We There Yet?