Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

DVD and Blu-ray Releases for August 26th, 2014

August 26th, 2014

This is not a good week for new releases on the home market. For one thing, the biggest first-run release is Blended (DVD or Blu-ray ComboPack) which is also one of the worst movies of the summer. There are many TV on DVD releases that helped pick up the slack somewhat, but it still feels like a shallow week. As for Pick of the Week contenders, there are not many. The Normal Heart (DVD or Blu-ray) and Belle (Blu-ray) are the two most likely candidates, but I kind of want to give it to Gravity Falls: Even Stranger (DVD). In the end, I went with The Normal Heart. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Guardians Help Summer Recover

August 5th, 2014

Finally! Finally we have a week where there's nothing but good news to talk about. Guardians of the Galaxy crushed high expectations breaking the August records for biggest day and biggest weekend. While Guardians dominated at the box office chart, Get On Up did okay in the counter-programming role. This helped the overall box office soar, rising 20% when compared to last weekend to $186 million. More importantly, this was 35% better that this weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2014 is still behind 2013 $6.26 billion to $6.62 billion, but the gap was closed a little bit at $360 million or 5.4%. More...

Weekend Estimates: Hercules No Match for Lucy

July 27th, 2014

This weekend’s boys versus girls box office match-up has proven to be a triumph for the girls, with Lucy enjoying a decisive win over Hercules. The Scarlett Johansson/Luc Besson sci-fi thriller will post an opening around $44 million, according to Universal’s Sunday estimate, which is almost exactly 50% more than the $29 million debut projected for Hercules. The difference in budgets between the two films is even starker with Hercules clocking in at around $100 million, and Lucy reportedly closer to $40 million. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Godzilla Helps 2014 Climb Back on Top

May 20th, 2014

I thought Godzilla would be a monster hit. I mentioned that possibility in the monthly preview and the weekend predictions. However, I was in the minority and I reduced my expectations. That turns out to be a mistake. Godzilla opened with $93.19 million over the weekend, which is a better opening than The Amazing Spider-Man 2 managed, but it wasn't quite up to Captain America: The Winter Soldier. It also helped the overall box office soar to $178 million, which is 30% more than last weekend. More importantly, it was 16% more than the same weekend last year. 2014 is now ahead of 2013 by a margin of $185 million or 5.3% at $3.66 billion to $3.48 billion. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Neighbors were Louder than Expected

May 13th, 2014

Neighbors got off to a much faster start than expected, as did many of the top five films. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 fell more than 60% during its sophomore stint, but that was expected, at least it was inline with my expectations. Overall, the box office still fell from last weekend, but by 11% to $137 million, which isn't as bad as it could have been. It was down 14% from the same weekend last year, but that's a huge improvement from what it was last weekend, so in a small way, it is a bit of a victory. Year-to-date, 2014 has pulled in $3.45 billion, putting it 5.4% ahead of 2013's pace. That's down from its peak, but even if 2014 loses next weekend and the weekend after that, 2014 should still remain ahead of last year's pace. More...

Weekend Estimates: Neighbors Tops $50 Million

May 11th, 2014

Comedy triumphs at the box office this weekend, with Neighbors posting an impressive $51 million, according to Universal’s Sunday morning estimate. That’s the 16th-biggest opening ever for a comedy film (depending somewhat on one’s definition of what constitutes a comedy), and comparable to the debut of Ted (which made $54 million in 2012). It’s also easily Seth Rogen’s best weekend, ahead of the $33.5 million debut for The Green Hornet, and Zac Efron’s best, beating High School Musical: Senior Year. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Neighbors Have a Good Opening?

May 8th, 2014

It could be an interesting weekend at the box office as The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is expected to fall far enough that Neighbors could win the box office race. That certainly would be a boost for the new release's box office chances. Earning first place does provide a lot of free publicity. The other two wide releases coming out this week are not expected to be major players at the box office. I've heard some buzz that Mom's Night Out could be a sleeper hit. On the other hand, Legends of Oz: Dorothy's Return might not open above the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Iron Man 3 led the way with $72.53 million, which is more than all three wide releases will make. In fact, last year's second place film, The Great Gatsby earning $50.09 million, which might be more than all three wide releases make this weekend. On the other hand, depth will be better this time around and that should mitigate the situation a little bit. More...

2014 Preview: May

May 1st, 2014

It has been a great year so far and April was again a strong month. The box office was led by Captain America: The Winter Soldier, as it became the second film of the year to reach $200 million, while Rio 2 is on pace to become the seventh $100 million hit of the year. Big picture, 2014 has already hit $3 billion, which isn't a record for this time of the year, but it is $250 million ahead of 2013. That streak ends in May. Don't get me wrong. There are six films opening this month that at least have a shot at $100 million and two of those should earn more than $200 million and there are two others that at least have a shot at that milestone. Leading the way is The Amazing Spider-Man 2, which is looking to top The Winter Soldier and become the second biggest hit of the year so far. Its main competition this month is X-men: Days of Future Past, while Godzilla also has a shot at $200 million. Unfortunately, this month last year, Iron Man 3 earned more than $400 million, while two other films took in $200 million and seven films in total reached the century mark. That is going to be really hard to replicate this year and 2014 will likely lose some of its lead over 2013. Fortunately, 2014 has such a big lead that unless the box office really slumps, it will end the month with at least a small lead over 2013. More...