Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Weekend estimates: Croods still rule

December 13th, 2020

The Croods: A New Age continues to dominate at the box office (relatively speaking) this weekend, with Universal projecting a weekend box office of $3.01 million for a total of $24.26 million to date. Half Brothers is outperforming expectations in second place with a projected $490,000 sophomore weekend, down just 30% from its last outing. More...

Weekend estimates: Croods leads another dismal weekend

December 6th, 2020

The Croods: A New Age will remain top at the box office this weekend, with Universal projecting a $4.4-million weekend as of Sunday morning. That will take the animated adventure past $20 million in total by the end of the day today. That fact pales in comparison to bad news regarding the continued decline in box office receipts. Returning films are falling 12% to 25% short of our model’s pre-weekend predictions. Part of that is down to the post-Thanksgiving decline that’s to be expected, but the continued toll of the pandemic is further dragging on spending. Perhaps the glimmer of good news is that more people are heeding experts’ advice and watching their movies at home. More...

DEG Watched At Home Chart: Trolls Tower over the Rest

July 16th, 2020

The pandemic continues to impact the DEG Watched at Home chart, which is little changed from last week. Trolls World Tour remains in first place on the chart and Universal is the top studio, this time with six entries in the top 20, up from five last week. More...

DEG Watched At Home Chart: Yellowstone is Far from Mellow

July 2nd, 2020

Yellowstone led the way on the DEG Watched at Home chart last week. In fact, the show had three of the top five spots, with season three earning first spot and seasons one and two in third and fourth places respectively. More...

DEG Watched At Home Chart: Invisible Man Outruns Sonic The Hedgehog

June 25th, 2020

We have a new champ on the DEG Watched at Home chart, as The Invisible Man finally pushed Sonic the Hedgehog out of first place. That wasn’t the only change in the top five. More...

DEG Watched At Home Chart: Hunting for New Entries

June 19th, 2020

There were some changes on the DEG Watched at Home chart this week; however, the top film was the same. Sonic the Hedgehog earned first place for the fourth week in a row, taking full advantage of the pause in new movies caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. There are still rumors that Netflix is looking to buy Paramount. Maybe this success is enough to keep Paramount where it is, or perhaps it just increases the asking price. More...

DEG Watched At Home Chart: Déjà Vu for the DEG

June 11th, 2020

There were no new releases in the top five of the DEG Watched at Home Chart this week. In fact, the top five were exactly the same as they were last week, right down to the order the were in. This isn’t a huge shock, as the new DVD / Blu-ray releases and VOD releases were far from stellar, so there wasn’t anything new to challenge those at the top of the chart. Sonic the Hedgehog remains one of the few bright spots in a movie industry that has been hit hard by the pandemic. More...

DEG Watched At Home Chart: Invisible Man Avoids the Spotlight

June 4th, 2020

The Invisible Man came out on DVD / Blu-ray / 4K last week, but that wasn’t enough to overtake Sonic the Hedgehog on the DEG Watched at Home chart this week. Sonic the Hedgehog has done so well at the box office and now on the home market that I wouldn’t be surprised if there was an army of interns at Paramount Pictures going over every Sega video game ever made to see what else can be turned into a movie. My top three choices are, in alphabetical order, Altered Beast, Arabian Fight, and Golden Axe. Streets of Rage did just get a new installment, so the property could be hot. I could see that video game franchise successfully turned into a Rumble in the Bronx-style film. More...

DVD and Blu-ray Releases for May 26th, 2020

May 26th, 2020

The main list of DVD and Blu-ray releases is much shorter than usual, but the hit-to-miss ratio is amazing as there are no real duds. Solid Metal Nightmares has the smallest target audience, but even then, it will be loved by fans. As for Pick of the Week contenders, The Invisible Man and Konosuba were the two best bets. I went with The Invisible Man, as you need to be a fan of isekai anime to really get Konosuba. You also need a higher tolerance of pervvy humor. Although that might be a selling point for some. More...

DEG Watched At Home Chart: Preying for a Miracle

May 21st, 2020

Birds of Prey hit DVD / Blu-ray / 4K last week, and that helped it shoot up the DEG Watched at Home chart from eighth place last week to land in first place. It looks like Warner Bros. should break even on this film before too long. On the downside, the studio only had two other entries in the top twenty, leaving Sony in first place in that regard with five releases in the top twenty this week. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: In the Land of Quarantines, VOD is the King

March 20th, 2020

The COVID-19 outbreak has hit all 50 states and in many of them it is a state of emergency. Mass theater closings hasn’t stopped all limited releases, but I assume Video on Demand will generate a lot more business this weekend. Because of the COVID-19 outbreak, there are so few theatrical releases that, starting this week, I am including made-for-VOD and streaming releases, including some original TV shows. We are also going to include theatrical releases that were fast-tracked to VOD this week. If you don't want to / can't hit theaters this week (and the overwhelming advice coming from the professionals is not to), you can watch some big movies early on the home market, including The Invisible Man, Onward, and others. Stay safe! More...

International Box Office: One Last Shot at the Box Office

March 18th, 2020

The COVID-19 outbreak has been causing major closures of theater chains both domestically and internationally, which means this could be the last meaningful box office report for weeks, if not months. Bloodshot led the way with $12.47 million on 10,443 screens in 59 markets for an early international total of $14.59 million. The film is playing in most major markets, but it only cracked $1 million in three of them, led by Russia at $2.47 million on 1,665. Indonesia isn’t considered a major market, but the film earned $1.72 million on 868 screens there. The film topped the charts in both of those markets, but had to settle for second place in Mexico with $1.13 million on 1,510 screens in that market. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: COVID-19 Scare Results in Worst Weekend in Decades

March 16th, 2020

The weekend broke a record, one that I thought would never be broken. Ticket price inflation means the smallest overall weekend record looked unbreakable, but this weekend only managed $53.50 million, although that number should be adjusted up as some indie films report numbers later in the week. This is down 47% from last weekend and down 61% from the same weekend last year. Only one film managed to top $10 million, Onward, while the total box office was less than what Captain Marvel earned this weekend last year. This is easily the worst weekend since I’ve been in the business, but I fear it will get worse before it gets better. Year-to-date is, to be blunt, a disaster. 2020 is already $100 million behind 2019’s pace and 2019 was not a good year at the box office. Furthermore, the $1.76 billion box office is only 195 million tickets sold, meaning we are on pace for the lowest ticket sales since the turn of the century. More...

Weekend Estimates: Onward Hit by Box Office Shutdown

March 15th, 2020

People are clearly taking the concept of social distancing seriously and this is causing a massive drop at the box office. Onward is going to lead the way at the box office this weekend, but with just $10.53 million. This is down 73% from its opening weekend, which is the worst in the top ten. Granted, it is a family film during its sophomore stint, so it would naturally be affected the most by social distancing. Internationally, things were much worse as some markets were shutting down theaters entirely. The film is only earning $6.8 million in 47 markets for totals of $41.4 million internationally and $101.7 million worldwide. On the positive side, its reviews are really strong, so it should find a second life on the home market. More...

Friday Estimates: COVID-19 Outbreak Takes Out Box Office

March 14th, 2020

I Still Believe debuted in first place with $4.0 million on Friday, putting it on pace for close to $11 million over the full weekend. On the positive side, this is what was predicted, so at least it is matching lowered expectations. On the negative side, it won’t be enough to remain in first place for long. Its reviews are mixed, but it did earn an A-rating from CinemaScore, which is easily the best of the three new releases that came out this week. More...

Weekend Predictions: Trio of Films Opening Wide could be Last Wide Releases for Weeks

March 12th, 2020

Wash your hands. This could be the worst weekend of the year at the box office, perhaps even the worst weekend of the past several years. COVID-19 has caused the suspension of the NBA and NHL seasons, while practically every wide release for the next several weeks has been pushed back indefinitely. This news is very likely going to hurt ticket sales as people are taking the concept of “self isolation” seriously. Last weekend, Onward and Sonic the Hedgehog were hit the hardest, which makes sense, as families would be the first to avoid going out because of a pandemic, but now I think general audiences will also avoid crowds. Worse still, none of the three wide releases were expected to be anything more than midlevel hits at the best of times. Now, I wouldn’t be surprised if none of Bloodshot, The Hunt, and I Still Believe hit $10 million over the weekend. This weekend last year, Captain Marvel earned $67.99 million during its second weekend of release. That will be more than the three new releases will open with combined. It could be more than their combined domestic totals. More...

International Box Office: Onward Starts On Top, but it could have a Short Journey in Theaters

March 12th, 2020

Onward opened in first place internationally with just $28.0 million in 47 markets during its opening weekend. Worse still, the film has opened in most major markets and it wasn’t a serious hit in any of them. Its biggest market was the U.K., where it did open in first place with $4.45 million on 632 theaters. It also earned first place in France ($3.5 million) and in Mexico ($2.84 million). On the other hand, it had to settle for second place in Russia ($2.99 million on 1,631 screens) and Germany ($1.7 million). More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Onward on the Outs

March 10th, 2020

It was a bad weekend at the box office. There’s really no way to spin this in a positive way. Onward opened just below the low end of predictions with just $39.12 million. The Way Back couldn’t make up the difference, as it only managed $8.17 million. The overall box office was up 2.0% from last weekend at just over $100 million. Sadly, this was 52% lower than the same weekend last year when Captain Marvel debuted. I don’t think anyone truly thought 2020 would win this weekend in the year-over-year competition. However, I don’t think many thought it would lose this badly. In fact, 2020 has slipped below 2019’s pace by 1.3% or $22 million at $1.68 billion to $1.70 billion. This is a disaster. More...

Weekend Estimates: Onward Hits $40 million, Maybe

March 8th, 2020

According to Disney, Onward will earn $40.0 million during its opening weekend. I strongly suspect they rounded up to get to that number, because opening below $40 million would have been a lot harder to spin in a positive way and they wanted to delay that admission one more day. Or maybe the final weekend number will be higher and I will have egg on my face. If it does match its estimates, it will still be on the lower end of expectations, but it will at least have a very healthy internal multiplier, meaning its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore are helping its box office numbers. The film’s demographics were evenly split with 52% of the audience being female and 42% being general audiences vs. 58% families. Internationally, the film really struggled with just $28.0 million in 47 markets. The film opened in most major markets and this includes first place debut in the U.K. ($4.4 million); France ($3.3 million); and Mexico ($3.0 million). On the other hand, it had to settle for second place in both Russia ($2.1 million) and Germany ($1.9 million). The film is going to need very long legs or a massive home market run to break even any time soon. More...

Friday Estimates: Onward is Off the Pace

March 7th, 2020

It looks like March will start slower than anticipated, as Onward only managed $12.1 million on Friday, putting it on pace for just under $40 million during its opening weekend. If it does miss $40 million by any real degree, then it will be Pixar’s worst wide opening since Toy Story. Even if it avoids that fate, it is on pace to have the worst three-day opening for a Pixar film since The Good Dinosaur, and that film opened on a Wednesday. I’m not sure how to explain this other than look at the COVID-19 outbreak. Granted, its reviews are strong, but well below average for the studio. Likewise, its CinemaScore is a mere A minus, which isn’t great for a family film. It’s still good, but not great, certainly better than its box office numbers would indicate. More...

Weekend Predictions: Onward and Upward?

March 6th, 2020

The first weekend of March should be much better than the last weekend of February was, as Onward is widely expected to be a much bigger hit than The Invisible Man was. Unfortunately, it is also widely expected to not be enough to compete with what Captain Marvel made this weekend last year. In fact, it isn’t expected to make as much during its opening weekend as Captain Marvel made during its opening day. 2020 is going to get destroyed in the year-over-year comparison. More...

International Box Office: Sonic Completes Threepeat

March 5th, 2020

Sonic The Hedgehog is unstoppable on the international chart earning first place for the third weekend in a row. This past weekend, it pulled in $26.8 million in 62 markets for totals of $137.2 million internationally and $265.8 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings, but did open very well in both Indonesia and Poland at $2 million and $1.1 million respectively. The film has already earned enough to break even and it is quickly becoming one of Paramount’s biggest hits in the last few years. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Invisible Man first Horror Film Truly Seen by Audiences

March 3rd, 2020

It has not been a good year for horror films so far, but The Invisible Man broke the slump by earning first place over the weekend with $28.21 million. It is already the biggest horror hit of the year after just three days of release. Unfortunately, this wasn’t enough, as the overall box office fell 4.2% from last weekend to $98 million. Worse still, this was 14% lower than the same weekend last year. Granted, 2020 is still ahead of 2019, so there is no reason to panic. In fact, thanks to weekday numbers, the lead has grown to $116 million / 8.1% at $1.55 billion to $1.43 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Invisible Man Appears at Top of Chart

March 1st, 2020

The Invisible Man will debut this weekend with $29 million, according to Universal’s Sunday morning projection. That’s enough to make it the highest-grossing horror movie of 2020 after just three days in release, and is well ahead of predictions. The result is helped considerably by strong reviews, with the film earning a B+ from CinemaScore, and a 90% critics’ score and 89% audience score from Rotten Tomatoes. More...

Friday Estimates: Invisible Man Makes Its Presence Felt

February 29th, 2020

The Invisible Man opened with $9.8 million on Friday, which means it is the sixth-biggest horror film released in 2020 so far after just one day in theaters. It is projected to be in first place by the end of the weekend with $26 million, topping predictions, albeit by a very small margin. The film’s reviews remain excellent and it earned a B plus from CinemaScore. That is stellar, for a horror movie. It would be okay for an action movie and terrible for a family film / faith-based release, but it is amazing for a horror film. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Invisible Man Makes a Showy Entrance

February 28th, 2020

The Invisible Man is easily the best-reviewed horror film released in 2020 so far. It also looks like it should be one of the highest grossing, as it pulled in $1.65 million in previews on Thursday. The current 2020 champ is Fantasy Island, which didn’t even have previews, so we can’t us that film as a comparison. However, both Gretel and Hansel and The Turning earned between $400,000 and $500,000, so this is a stellar debut in comparison. It is still too early to tell if it will match predictions, but I remain cautiously optimistic. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will the Invisible Man be Seen this Weekend?

February 28th, 2020

It is the final weekend of the month and there’s only one wide release, The Invisible Man, which is the eighth horror film released in 2020 so far. This is going to hurt its box office potential; however, its reviews will be a major selling point, assuming audiences like the movie as much as critics do. This weekend last year was the first weekend of March. The box office was led by How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, while Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral made it a close race. Unless The Invisible Man is a surprise $40 million hit, 2020 has almost no chance of matching last year’s box office. More...

2020 Preview: February

February 1st, 2020

We had a great start to the year, sort of. Most films that opened / expanded wide in January are going to miss expectations; however, Bad Boys for Life and 1917 are so much stronger than anticipated that they alone will more than make up the difference. Looking forward, Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) is almost guaranteed to be the biggest hit of the month. There are two questions. Firstly, is it going to top Bad Boys for Life and become the biggest hit of the year so far? Secondly, is it going to be the only $100 million hit of month? Hopefully the answers to those questions are yes and no respectively, but no to both is would still be good news overall. Sonic the Hedgehog is looking better than before and frankly Paramount needs a hit after a very troubling 2019. Meanwhile, there are several midlevel hits that could help the overall box office. Last February was a mixed month with some hits, like How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, but some disappointing results as well, like from The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part. I think it will be a close race in the year-over-year competition with 2020 winning some weeks and losing others. More...

The Invisible Man Trailer

January 27th, 2020

Psychological horror starring Elisabeth Moss opens February 28 ... Full Movie Details.

Trapped in a violent, controlling relationship with a wealthy and brilliant scientist, Cecilia Kass escapes in the dead of night and disappears into hiding, aided by her sister, their childhood friend and his teenage daughter. But when Cecilia’s abusive ex commits suicide and leaves her a generous portion of his vast fortune, Cecilia suspects his death was a hoax. As a series of eerie coincidences turns lethal, threatening the lives of those she loves, Cecilia’s sanity begins to unravel as she desperately tries to prove that she is being hunted by someone nobody can see. More...