March 11th, 2016
Of the three wide releases coming out next week, only The Divergent Series: Allegiant has a real shot at box office success. Although, very few people think it will match Insurgent at the box office, especially if its early reviews are any indication. Regardless of its critical scorn, the film should have no trouble earning first place and so it is the only real choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Divergent Series: Allegiant
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Game of Thrones: Season Five on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of a full-season TV on DVD release.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of a full-season TV on DVD release.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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September 24th, 2015
While there were a huge number of new releases from August 25th to reach the top 30 on the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for August 30th, none were big hits. The Walking Dead: Season Six led the way with 295,000 units / $7.69 million. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 34%, which is average for the format as a whole, but excellent for a TV on DVD release.
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September 13th, 2015
A huge number of new releases from August 18th reached the top 30 on the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for August 23rd. However, none of them could overtake Home, which rose to first place with 216,000 units / $3.89 million for the week, giving it four-week totals of 2.09 million / $38.58 million. It became just the sixth film to sell more than 2 million units during 2015.
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September 10th, 2015
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There were more new releases to chart this week than there were last week. However, none of the new releases from August 11th were unable to unseat the holdovers on the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for August 16th chart. This left Insurgent in first place with 303,000 units / $4.85 million for the week, giving it totals of 1.17 million units / $18.95 million after two weeks of release.
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September 3rd, 2015
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Only two and a half new releases from August 2nd reached the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for August 9th chart. Insurgent led the way with 904,000 units and $14.71 million during its first week of release for a Blu-ray share of 54%. This is substantially lower than Divergent's opening week, which is a troubling sign for the franchise. Speaking of the franchise, there was also a Double-Feature, which placed third with 130,000 units / $2.98 million for an opening week Blu-ray share of 48%.
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August 28th, 2015
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The new releases for July 28th were led by Home, which dominated the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for August 2nd. The film sold 1.18 million units and generated $22.60 million in revenue. That was enough to put it in 16th place on the yearly chart after just one week of release. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 42%, which is good for a kids movie.
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August 4th, 2015
For a summer week, there's a surprising strength on top of the home market releases. Insurgent will very likely be the top selling DVD or Blu-ray on this week's list, but it isn't even close to the best. There were five contenders for Pick of the Week, three of which were in the TV on DVD category. This includes the eventual winner, Orphan Black: Season Three.
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July 21st, 2015
I can't wait till the TV on DVD releases start coming out. I will finally have something to talk about on the home market. This week, according to Amazon.com, the best-selling new release is What We Do In Shadows. The film earned excellent reviews and did well in limited release, but it isn't a number one chart-topper. The second best-selling new release of the week is Scooby-Doo and Kiss. ... What? From what few reviews I could find, it is better than it looks. That said, the Pick of the Week is still What We Do In Shadows.
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April 22nd, 2015
Furious 7 again dominated the weekend international box office chart earning $166.9 million on 17,834 screens in 67 markets for totals of $857.86 million internationally and $1.152 billion worldwide. This is the first film from Universal to reach $1 billion during its initial run (Jurassic Park got there during its 3D re-release). After opening in China last Sunday, the film made $186.60 million for the week giving it an eight-day total of $250.02 million there. It got to that milestone faster than any film and it is just $70 million behind Age of Extinction in that market. This is simply a stunning result. On the other hand, the film only managed third place in Japan with $6.2 million.
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April 16th, 2015
Furious 7 remained just as dominant at the international box office this weekend as it did in its opening weekend earning $198.7 million in 66 markets for totals of $550.47 million internationally and $802.0 million worldwide. It became the first film in the franchise and just the 46th film overall to crack the $800 million market worldwide. This past weekend, the film earned first place in China with $63.24 million in just one day. The film opened on Sunday there, with a record opening day for that market, which was close to its opening day domestic box office. The film opened in first place in Russia with $15.86 million on 1,184 screens. At this pace, the film will top $1 billion over the weekend and I can't imagine the studio won't try to make an eighth installment.
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April 9th, 2015
There's only one wide release this week, The Longest Ride, but it has an approximately zero percent chance of earning first place. Unless Furious 7 falls about 80% and The Longest Ride beats expectations, it will be no where near top spot. In fact, The Longest Ride likely won't be able to score second place, finishing behind Home. As for this weekend last year, there were three wide releases, led by Rio 2, which earned second place with $39.33 million. The Longest Ride might not make that much in total. On the other hand, the sophomore stint for Furious 7 will top the sophomore stint for Captain America: The Winter Soldier. 2015 will be stronger on top, but that might not be enough to win in the year-over-year comparison.
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April 9th, 2015
Furious 7 dominated the international chart with $245.05 million on 10,683 screens in 63 markets for a worldwide opening of $392.22 million. Unless the film has terrible legs, it should get to $1 billion. Speaking of $1 billion, Universal announced they reached $1 billion worldwide for the year in the earliest ever time for the studio. The previous record was May 31st, which was set in 2013. So not only did they beat the record, they crushed it. The film's best individual market was Mexico, where it earned $21.5 million on 685 screens. It also cracked $15 million in the U.K. ($18.7 million on 537); Germany ($15.9 million on 650). Additionally, the film topped $10 million in France ($11.4 million on 707); Brazil ($11.4 million on 551); Australia ($11.3 million on 255); Taiwan ($10.3 million on 80). This is an incredible run so far and could be a good omen for the upcoming summer blockbuster season.
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April 7th, 2015
As expected, Furious 7 easily won the race for top spot on the weekend box office chart. However, it did so in an unexpectedly robust way, destroying a number of records along the way. This helped the overall box office grow 49% from last weekend to $224 million. More importantly, the overall box office was 34% more than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2015 is now 3.1% above 2014's pace at $2.64 billion to $2.56 billion. Assuming Furious 7 has any legs at all, this lead will continue to grow next weekend.
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April 3rd, 2015
There's only one wide release this week, but it is expected to be a record-breaking debut. Furious 7 is widely expected to become the first film of 2015 to crack $100 million during its opening weekend. This would also give it the record for biggest April opening, topping the current record-owner, Captain America: The Winter Soldier. Additionally, Home should do well in a counter-programming role and that will also help the box office. This weekend last year was the weekend The Winter Soldier set the April record. Since nearly everyone thinks that record will fall and this year is expected to have better depth, 2015 should win in the year-over-year comparison with relative ease.
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April 2nd, 2015
Cinderella returned to first place after a week in second. It did so with $40.0 million in 53 markets for totals of $187.7 million internationally and $337.3 million worldwide. The film opened in a number of major markets, including the U.K., where it earned first place with $5.65 million in 554 theaters. The film took $3.8 million in France and $3.7 million in Australia, while Brazil was close behind with $3.4 million. The film's debut in Spain wasn't as strong at $2.1 million, but that was still the best result of the weekend and the third best opening of the year. Meanwhile in China, the film added $12.33 million over the full week for a total of $65.92 million after three. At this pace, the film will have no trouble getting to $400 million worldwide, which will be enough to cover its entire production budget and perhaps all of its P&A budget.
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March 31st, 2015
After a couple of soft weeks at the box office, both new wide releases beat expectations. In fact, Home nearly doubled predictions. Get Hard also beat expectations, albeit by a smaller margin. Add in solid runs by the holdovers and the overall box office was very strong at $150 million. This is 19% higher than last week and 7.3% higher than the same weekend last year. We can thank Home entirely for this win. If it had merely matched predictions, 2015 would have lost the in the year-over-year comparisons. Year-to-date, 2015 is ahead of 2014 by a 2.0% margin at $2.37 billion to $2.32 billion.
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March 29th, 2015
DreamWorks Animation has been having a tough time of it recently. Aside from How to Train Your Dragon 2, their last three films, Penguins of Madagascar, Mr. Peabody & Sherman and Turbo were all financial failures, and, as an animation house, they are stuck with a business model that demands putting $100 million–$200 million into each film and hoping for a $500 million-plus global hit. That’s made doubly-difficult when you’re operating as a standalone entity and can’t fall back on the wider resources of the studio during hard times.
The opening weekend for Home, projected at $54 million, according to distributor Fox, is therefore very welcome news indeed. It marks the best opening by a non-sequel for the production house since Monsters vs. Aliens opened with $59.3 million on this weekend in 2009, and the third-best non-sequel debut in their history behind that film and Kung Fun Panda’s $60 million start in 2008.
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March 26th, 2015
There is an actual race at the box office this weekend. This is rare, because there's usually one obvious number one film, as studios don't want to deal with competition. However, this week, both Get Hard and Home have a shot at first place with $30 million or so. Additionally, there are two other films, Insurgent and Cinderella, that are aiming to reach $20 million over the weekend. That's a lot of depth. There is one final film of note, It Follows, which is expanding semi-wide and could find a spot in the top five. This weekend last year, the box office was led by Noah with $43.72 million, while two other films, Divergent and Muppets Most Wanted earned more than $10 million. 2015 has better depth, but it won't be as strong at the top. I'm not sure which year will come out on top, but it should be close.
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March 26th, 2015
As expected, Insurgent earned first place on the international chart earning $48.4 million on 10,187 screens in 76 markets. The film's biggest market was France, where it opened in first place with $6 million, while it made $4.37 million in 497 theaters in the U.K. earning first place there as well. Its best growth came from Brazil, where it nearly tripled the first film with $4.2 million. The film had to settle for second place in Russia with $3.76 million on 1,570 screens, but that was still close to 20% more than its predecessor opened with.
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March 25th, 2015
The winners of our Wrestling with Your Prediction contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Insurgent opening weekend were...
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March 25th, 2015
Danny Collins led the way on the per theater chart with an average of $14,631 in five theaters. However, since its reviews are merely good and not great, I doubt it will have the legs needed to thrive in limited release. The overall box office leader, Insurgent, was next with an average of $13,487. Last week's winner on the per theater chart, It Follows, was the only holdover in the $10,000 club earning an average of $10,777 in 32 theaters. It has room to grow and should have no trouble earning a least some small measure of mainstream success. Kumiko, the Treasure Hunter was the only other film that did well, with an average of $8,529 in four theaters over the weekend, while it earned an average of $10,101 since Wednesday.
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March 24th, 2015
As expected, Insurgent led the way at the box office; however, it didn't live up to Divergent's opening from last year. Worse still, both The Gunman and Do You Believe? failed to match low expectations. Overall, the box office did dip from last week, but by less than $1 million or 0.5%. Its decline from last year was more troublesome at 7.3%. Year-to-date, 2015 is still ahead of 2014, but by only 2.2% at $2.18 billion to $2.13 billion.
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March 22nd, 2015
A mix of positive and negative factors (poor reviews vs. fan loyalty, competition vs. Spring break and so on) are neatly canceling one another out this weekend to give Insurgent an opening weekend almost perfectly in line with the $54.6 million debut enjoyed by Divergent this time last year. Lionsgate is officially projecting a $54 million weekend. The numbers we’re seeing suggest the film will end up a shade lower than that—perhaps $53 million would be a safer bet—but either way, it’s an impressive start, and the fifth-best weekend of 2015 so far.
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March 19th, 2015
Insurgent leads the three wide releases coming out this weekend. Although that is really an understatement. Insurgent will likely earn more on its opening day than the combined weekend totals of The Gunman and Do You Believe? The real competition for Insurgent is Divergent, which opened this weekend last year with $54.61 million. If Insurgent doesn't at least match that, then the franchise is in trouble going forward. Cinderella should have no trouble earning second place, but how much Insurgent's crossover audience hurts Cinderella will go a long way in determining Cinderella's legs. This weekend last year, Divergent opened and it looks like Insurgent will have no trouble topping that number. Additionally, Muppets Most Wanted opened in second place with $17.01 million and Cinderella should make twice that this weekend. This should give 2015 an easy win over the weekend in the year-over-year comparison.
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March 13th, 2015
Insurgent will dominate the box office next weekend, which makes it the clear choice for the target film in this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Insurgent.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of The Flintstones & WWE: Stone Age Smackdown on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize: some DVDs and Blu-rays that I have previously reviewed.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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March 1st, 2015
February was strong thanks to The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water and Fifty Shades of Grey, both of which beat expectations. This March could actually be even better, as there are three or four films that have a decent shot at earning $100 million or more. The top film will likely be Cinderella, which has a real shot at $200 million. Insurgent will almost assuredly get beyond the $100 million mark, while Get Hard, Home, and perhaps Chappie will also get to the century mark. Last March, there were four $100 million hits, led by Divergent, which pulled in $150 million. While this March should be better than February, I'm not sure it will be better than last March. I don't think March 2015 will be much worse than last year, but I think its percentage lead will be chipped away at by the end of the month.
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