February 8th, 2012
This was not a deep week for new releases, as only two of them cracked the top 30. (One major new release was only released as a Blu-ray / DVD combo pack, so we will get to those numbers shortly.) We did have a new number one on the DVD sales chart, as Real Steel sold 691,000 units and generated $12.03 million in revenue. This is not a great start, but it performed better on Blu-ray.
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January 31st, 2012
January is typically a really bad month for the home market, and it is usually even worse for Blu-ray. Not only are there not many hits coming out, but those that are being released tend to be films that are better suited to DVD than Blu-ray (middling hits, dramas, etc.). This is certainly the case with this week's new releases. Leading the way on the Blu-ray sales chart was Ides of March, a political drama, with 116,000 units / $2.08 million. Its opening Blu-ray share was 39%, which is better than expected for the genre.
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January 31st, 2012
It was a mixed week on the home market as far as new releases were concerned. On the one hand, four of the top five spots on the DVD sales chart were new releases. On the other hand, they were the only new releases to reach the top 30. Courageous was the best of the bunch selling 381,000 units and generating $6.47 million in opening week sales.
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January 16th, 2012
It's a slow week on the home market; there are four first run wide releases on this week's list, which is not bad, but only one of those, The Ides of March, earned reviews that were even remotely good. Unfortunately, there are only a few smaller releases that are worth checking out, so it's a pretty shallow week as well. As far as Pick of the Week is concerned, The Ides of March on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack win that honor, practically by default.
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November 6th, 2011
After a disappointing opening weekend, Puss in Boots is on its way to posting a redeeming second weekend, according to Paramount's Sunday estimate. The Shrek spin-off is projected to $33.035 million, down just 3% from its opening. That is in part a reflection of better weather on the East Coast, which also helped returners such as In Time (down 36%), Footloose (down 17%) and Courageous (down 16%). But it also suggests a very healthy run is in prospect. Tales of the demise of DreamWorks Animation last week may have been premature.
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October 20th, 2011
The box office was terrible last weekend, so much so that it is hard to imagine things won't turnaround this weekend. There is one film, Paranormal Activity 3, that's almost guaranteed to be a hit, but expectations for the other wide releases range from expensive bomb, The Three Musketeers 3D; international hit that will flop here, Johnny English Reborn and niche market film just hoping to reach the top ten, The Mighty Macs. Last year Paranormal Activity 2 opened with just over $40 million. Paranormal Activity 3 might be able to do the same, but the rest of the new releases and the holdovers are not looking good, so there could be a sizable decline in the year-over-year comparison.
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October 10th, 2011
October started out with mixed results and it seems for every bit of good news there was equal and opposite bad news. Real Steel topped expectations, but Ides of March did not. The overall box office slipped by 4% from last weekend to $95 million, but it was higher than the same weekend last year. Growth was under 2%, meaning ticket sales were weaker. Year-to-date, 2011 is still behind 2010, but the gap was narrowed to 3% at $8.11 billion to $8.39 billion. There's still a chance we can catch up, but we are running out of time and can't afford any missteps.
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October 6th, 2011
September was a good month and 2011 was able to close the gap with 2010 by $60 million; however, it is still close to $300 million behind last year's pace. This weekend we could see that gap close a little further. There's only one wide release, Real Steel, but it should be bigger than any of last year's three wide releases. In fact, there's a tiny, but statistically significant, chance it could earn more during its opening weekend than the combined opening weekends of Life as We Know It, Secretariat, and My Soul to Take. Ides of March won't be as strong, but it should play counter-programming well enough to grab a solid second place. If the holdovers can hold their own, then the month should start off on a winning note.
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October 3rd, 2011
It was a good news / bad news weekend and the box office. First the bad news. Only one of the four new wide releases made any real impact and this led to a 16% drop-off from last weekend to just $99 million. The good news is that's still 4% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2011 is still behind 2010 by 3% at $7.99 billion to $8.27 billion, but at least there's a little hope left that we can turn things around, if October beats expectations.
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October 2nd, 2011
The industry's slow period in September and October is traditionally a dumping ground for films that the studios would rather forget, but it also presents an opportunity for movies that would otherwise be swamped by the competition at busier times of year. This weekend provides a perfect example of this phenomenon, with two pictures aimed at church-going families coming out the big winners. Dolphin Tale dropped just 25% in its second weekend to jump from third to first on the chart, overtaking Moneyball, which had a good second weekend (down 35% to $12.5 million) and The Lion King, which ran out of steam a bit, but still crossed $400 million at the box office. But the bigger surprise was the $8.8 million opening for Courageous from what must have been 1,161 carefully-chosen theaters. Its $7,580 per theater average comfortably tops the list among wide releases.
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September 29th, 2011
It's another busy week with three wide releases, plus another opening in just over 1,000 theaters, which is barely semi-wide. The widest release is What's Your Number?, but romantic comedies rarely have breakout success. The best-reviewed is 50/50, but its subject matter might make it hard to sell to audiences. Meanwhile, Dream House had an effective trailer, but there are still no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. Courageous should grab a spot in the top ten, but it is not a sure bet. Unfortunately for the year-on-year comparison, none of the new releases look as strong as The Social Network, which opened this weekend last year. In fact, there's a slim chance all four of this year's wide release combined won't match The Social Network's $22.45 million. On the other hand, three of the four could crack $10 million, plus there are three holdovers that could do the same. Depth could be the key to victory in the year-over-year comparison.
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September 1st, 2011
After a strong start, August ended on a really low note, and that's bad news for September, as it means the positive momentum we had is gone. Looking at the upcoming month, there are 18 films opening wide over five weekends (including one re-release) but only four or five of them have a real shot at being midlevel hits, and it is unlikely that all of them will get there. Worse still, there are no films opening this month that look like they will match The Town, which made more than $90 million last September. In fact, the selection of releases is so weak that the film I'm most looking forward to is a limited release that has already come out on Video on Demand, Tucker and Dale vs. Evil. (It has seventeen reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and still not a negative one among them.)
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