This graph shows Keira Knightley’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
It’s an awkward time for limited releases, as it is way too late for a summer box office run, but still way too early for Awards Season buzz. That said, there are some films on this week’s list that could do well in theaters, even if they never expand significantly. These include; Before You Know It, The Load, Ne Zha, and Official Secrets.
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I knew The Nutcracker and the Four Realms was in trouble when Disney didn’t push Christopher Robin over $100 million at the domestic box office. At that point, every film they released in 2018 had hit the century mark, so there was a chance they could have had every film released in a calendar year get to that milestone. They wouldn’t pass up that chance, unless they knew The Nutcracker and the Four Realms wasn’t going to get there. It didn’t get there. It barely managed to get halfway to $100 million. Is the film as bad as its box office numbers? Or was it unfairly ignored?
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There isn’t a huge number of releases on this week’s list home market release report. The Equalizer 2 is the biggest, but it is far from the best. As for the best, there are some Pick of the Week contenders, including Colette, My Neighbor Totoro and A Simple Favor. My Neighbor Totoro is worth owning, but it is a triple-dip at this point, maybe more. A Simple Favor is coming out on VOD this week. This leaves Colette’s DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack as the Pick of the Week.
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October continued 2018’s phenomenal box office run, for the most part. There were a couple of films that missed expectations by $10 million or more, but on the other hand, Vemon and Halloween were smash hits and are now the first and second biggest October debuts of all time. Furthermore, 2018’s lead over 2017 is, as I’m writing this, just shy of $1 billion and if 2018 can maintain this lead, it will be one of the biggest year-over-year increases of all time. It won’t. The fun times end now. Why is that? Last November was amazing. There were only eight wide releases, but six of them earned more than $100 million. Three of those hit $200 million, including Thor: Ragnarok, which earned over $300 million. This year, there are a lot more movies opening in November, but it is a case of quantity over quality. No movie is expected to come close to $300 million and it would take a bit of luck just to have five $100 million hits. The film I’m looking forward to the most is Ralph Breaks the Internet, while it, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, and Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald are all aiming for $200 million this month. Fortunately, even if 2018 is behind 2017’s pace by around $300 million, 2018 has built up such a large lead that it should still go into December with an insurmountable lead at the box office.
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Rachael Morgan arrives in the ruins of Hamburg in the bitter winter, to be reunited with her husband Lewis, a British colonel charged with rebuilding the shattered city. But as they set off for their new home, Rachael is stunned to discover that Lewis has made an unexpected decision: They will be sharing the grand house with its previous owners, a German widower and his troubled daughter. In this charged atmosphere, enmity and grief give way to passion and betrayal.
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It is not a particularly busy week for limited releases, as there are only nine films on the main list. However, several of them could do very well at the box office. Of these, I’m the most bullish about Colette and The Sisters Brothers, but there are two documentaries, Love, Gilda and Nothing Like a Dame, that could also open in the $10,000 club. All four could earn some Awards Season glory.
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November was good, but not great. Fortunately, 2016 had a large enough lead going into November that the month only needed to be good. In fact, it could have been mediocre and 2016 would have still had an excellent shot to end the year above 2015. As for December, it’s a race between Star Wars and Star Wars. Almost no one thinks Rogue One is going to match The Force Awakens, but if Rogue One earns just half of what The Force Awakens managed, then 2016 will come out on top in the year-over-year comparison. There are only two other films with a better than 50/50 chance of hitting $100 million, Passengers and Sing. Either one could earn second place for the month, but Passengers will likely start faster. Last December, the only other film to earn more than $100 million was Daddy’s Home, which earned just a hair over $150 million. There’s a chance both Passengers and Sing will earn more than $150 million, which would be a boon to the box office. However, Star Wars: The Force Awakens was just too strong last year and it would take a miracle for 2016 to have a stronger December. That said, it would take a complete collapse for 2016 not to top 2015 in raw dollars. The growth might not be enough to keep pace with ticket price inflation, on the other hand.
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two supporting actor categories, starting with Best Supporting Actress. Three of the four acting categories have almost no suspense to them, as there is an overwhelming favorite amongst the five nominees. This is not the exception.
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Laggies is a film that opened in limited release earning much better buzz than most films do. It opened well, but struggled as it tried to expand. Then again, it is a romantic comedy and those rarely do well in limited release. Did it fail to find an audience because it is the wrong genre? Or did the word of mouth kill it?
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The Oscar nominations were announced early in the morning, when all sensible people were asleep. There were some surprises, as well as some results that would have been surprises had it not been for the previous Awards Season nominations. Seventeen films earned two or more nods, led by Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel, both of which picked up nine nominations, while The Imitation Game was right behind with eight.
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The BAFTA nominations were announced yesterday and unlike most other Awards Season voters, the BAFTA voters gave us some real surprises. For instance, Birdman didn't lead the way. In fact, it was a comedy, The Grand Budapest Hotel, that earned the most nominations at 11. Granted, Birdman and The Theory of Everything were tied for second place with ten each, but it is still strange to see a comedy leading the way.
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The Golden Globes nominations were announced this morning, at three in the morning, because the people at Golden Globes are under the delusion that news announced at 3:00 a.m. is somehow more important if it is announced before anyone is awake. As for the actual nominations, like with the Independent Spirit Awards and the SAG nominations, Birdman led the way. It earned seven nominations, while Boyhood and The Imitation Game tied for second with five apiece. Starting to notice a pattern here? This could be a really dull Awards Season with very few surprises. On the other hand, predictable means less work for me. Plus, predictable probably means the Awards Season voters are making the right choices, as surprises usually mean someone made the wrong choice.
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It's a terrible week on the home market with no major releases. The biggest theatrical release is Begin Again, which earned excellent reviews, but opened in limited release and never expanded truly wide. The best new release on the list is the limited edition Breaking Bad: The Complete Series 2014 Barrel, but it costs more than $200, so it is out of the price range of most people. Besides those two releases, there's more filler than releases worth talking about. Begin Again wins Pick of the Week, practically by default, as it is the only release I can enthusiastically recommend.
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Last weekend, Birdman opened with Oscar-worthy reviews and it wasn't the only film that was expected to be a hit at the box office. This weekend, there are no such films. CitizenFour and Force Majeure are both earning Oscar buzz, but one's a documentary and the other is a foreign-language film, so neither are likely to expand significantly. This leaves Laggies as the film with the loudest buzz, even if its reviews suggest it might not thrive in limited release.
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Overall, June was not good. Most films matched expectations, or came close enough that there weren't major disappointments. However, it looks like How to Train Your Dragon 2 will miss expectations by more than $100 million. This was such a massive amount that 2014 lost its lead over 2013 and not even Transformers: Age of Extinction's $100 million opening was able to turn things around. Looking forward to July, there's not a lot of good news. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes might be the only film coming out during July that will reach the $100 million milestone, but on the high end, it might reach the $200 million mark. There are a few others that have a shot, but are not favored to reach the century mark. On the other hand, there are more films that may or may not open / expand wide and even if they do, they will likely have no real impact at the box office. By comparison, last July, Despicable Me 2 was the top draw and finished with more than $350 million. There were also four other films that surpassed $100 million at the box office. It seems practically impossible for 2014 to match those numbers and will likely finish the month behind last year's pace. Overall, 2014 isn't doing poorly, but the summer has been much weaker than the spring was, so we've gone from potential record breaking year to merely average.
I previously reviewed the Jack Ryanbox set when it came out on Blu-ray last year. When I got a chance to review the latest installment, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, it seemed like the natural thing to do. But can this reboot live up to the past installments in the franchise? Or was there a reason it was dumped during the early part of the year?
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It's the first month of the new year, but the biggest hit might be a film released in December. Last month ended on a slow note with all five Christmas day releases failing to become hits, some more than others. (It's a little too soon to tell if The Wolf of Wall Street or The Secret Life of Walter Mitty will do well enough to break even any time soon, but neither is a serious hit.) There are still some December releases that will likely remain on the charts through the opening weekends of January, while there are some films that opened in limited release last month with a scheduled wide release this month. Of the purely January releases, I would guess Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit will be the biggest hit. Even then, it won't live up to the previous films in the franchise, even if you don't take inflation into account. Most of the rest of the new releases will be happy if they can become midlevel hits. Last January was led by Mama, which earned more than $70 million. I think Shadow Recruit will top that figure at the box office, while there are a similar number of likely box office bombs opening this year as there were last year. 2014 could start out ahead of 2013's pace, but it likely won't be a huge difference either way.
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There's good news and bad news this week when it comes to limited releases, and both focus on the same film: Silver Linings Playbook. At the beginning of the month, this was one wide release I was really looking forward to and I thought it had a real chance of being a sleeper hit. However, it was moved up a week and is rolling out in limited release this week before expanding to select cities next week. It should be the biggest hit this week, but expanding wide is never an easy task. There are a few other limited releases this week that have earned some measure of pre-release buzz, but none of them have earned reviews to match.
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