Weekend projections: Expend4bles bomb continues box office slump

September 24, 2023

Expend4bles

Expend4bles will open with a dismal $8.3 million this weekend, according to Lionsgate’s Sunday-morning projection. That’s not just the worst performance for the franchise by a considerable distance, it also won’t be enough to knock The Nun II out of top spot at the box office this weekend.

Here’s how the domestic numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…



The Expendables franchise was a fairly consistent performer at the box office over its first three outings, although there were signs of trouble by the time The Expendables 3 debuted in 2014, with that outing opening with a modest $15.9 million and only finishing with $39.3 million domestically, compared to an opening of $34.8 million and total of $103.1 million for the original The Expendables. The almost decade-long wait for the fourth installment probably didn’t help, and this looks like a case of an unnecessary sequel, and, frankly, a cash grab for the stars involved. Assuming the reported $100-million budget is accurate, everyone presumably got paid about the same amount as they did for The Expendables 2 and The Expendables 3, which also had reported budgets of $100 million. That’s a lot of money to pay for a film that will struggle to top $20 million at the domestic box office.

The franchise’s success has been largely down to its international performance though, with a combined $562 million earned by the first three installments outside North America compared to $227 million domestically. Lionsgate hasn’t posted international numbers for Expend4bles yet, but it opened with a decent $10.7 million in China last weekend, and will be rolling out steadily around the world over the next few weeks. It looks as though its earnings will be heavily skewed towards international markets again.

The Nun II isn’t actually showing great legs, but will hold on well enough to top the box office chart for the third weekend running. The only other films to stay at the top of the chart for three weekends this year have been Avatar: The Way of Water, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and Barbie, so it’s in very good company. Those fims all stayed top for four weekends or more (Avatar managed it for seven weekends, the other two for four each). The Nun II won’t repeat that feat, but it’s been a rare strong performer this month.

A complete list of number one movies this year can be found in our 2023 market analysis, by the way.

There are a couple of other pieces of good news in this weekend’s numbers. It Lives Inside will give distributor Neon their best ever opening weekend, topping the $2.514 million earned by Infinity Pool on its debut in January. To be fair, this is a bit of a statistical quirk, because the studio earned more from individual weekends for films like Oscar-winners Parasite and I, Tonya later in their runs. Still, it’s a good result for a film that has snuck in ahead of Saw X and The Exorcist: Believer in the run-up to Halloween.

The final ray of sunshine this weekend is Dumb Money, which handled that tricky expansion into nationwide release with a respectable $2.5-million weekend. Its theater average, at $4,058, is the second-best among films reporting so far—What Doesn’t Float is projected to earn $5,029 in a single theater this weekend, and tops that list right now. It’ll expand further next weekend, and looks as though it’ll stick around in the top ten for a while.

One final note: Stop Making Sense will earn about $800,000 this weekend from 264 theaters (including shows on IMAX and other PLF screens). That’s another good start that warrants some expansion next weekend.

- Studio weekend projections
- Barbie’s day-by-day performance comparison with Avatar: The Way of Water and The Super Mario Bros. Movie
- All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash,

Filed under: The Expendables