Weekend Predictions: How Fast can Hobbs and Shaw Start?
August 1, 2019
It’s the first weekend of August and we have the last potential monster hit of the summer debuting. Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw is the first spin-off in the Fast and the Furious franchise. A lot of people think it will perform weaker at the box office than the other recent films in the franchise, but I think they are underestimating the box office appeal of Dwayne Johnson. Holdovers will be led by The Lion King and Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, both of which should still be major factors at the box office. This weekend last year, Mission: Impossible—Fallout and Christopher Robin combined for just under $60 million. Even throwing in The Spy Who Dumped Me and the top three barely pass $70 million. Hobbs and Shaw should earn more than that by itself, giving 2018 a very strong win in the year-over-year competition.
Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw is the first spin-off in the Fast and the Furious franchise and some see this as a risk. Will fans of the main cast care enough about these two to go to the movies? However, I see a problem with that line of reasoning. The introduction of Hobbs in Fast Five is part of what elevated the franchise from a solid box office performer to one of the biggest franchises on the planet. I think many fans of the franchise will be excited to see a movie that focuses on Hobbs and Shaw rather than the secondary characters in the main franchise. The film’s reviews are 70% positive, which is fine for an action film like this. It is a little lower than the Fast Five and below the franchise average, but not so low that it will adversely affect the box office numbers. On the high end, the film could earn $95 million over the weekend, but $85 million is more likely. It is the final monster release of the summer, so that should help its trailing legs, as there will be no real direct competition until this film is out of theaters.
The Lion King plummeted 60% last weekend, but it should bounce back this weekend. Unfortunately, “bouncing back” in this case still means a 50% decline to $38 million. Fortunately, this is still a huge amount for a family film to earn during its third weekend of release and the movie is going to be massively profitable in the end.
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood should also fall about 50%. It is aimed at a more mature target audience than Hobbs and Shaw, for example, which should help its legs. On the other hand, it only managed a B from CinemaScore, which is not a good omen going forward. A $21 million sophomore stint would still be enough to ensure $100 million domestic run and enough to break even sooner rather than later.
Toy Story 4 and Spider-Man: Far From Home will be in a virtual tie for fourth place with between $7 million and $8 million. Both films hit major milestones on Wednesday, so remaining in the top five one more weekend is just icing on the cake.
-2-News.jpg)
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Toy Story 4, Spider-Man: Far From Home, The Lion King, Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, Fast and the Furious, Dwayne Johnson, Jason Statham