Friday Estimates: Spidey Starts Miles Ahead of the Competition
December 15, 2018
Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse debuted with $12.6 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $35.5 million over the full weekend, at least according to Sony. It will get a tiny boost on Sunday, because about 5% of school kids start their winter holidays on Monday. It will get a larger boost from its reviews, which remain Oscar-worthy. And this is not a case of the critics loving it and the audiences being more ambivalent, as the film earned an A plus from CinemaScore and a five-star rating from PostTrak. If the film does match Sony’s estimates, then it will be a little better than our prediction. More importantly, if its word-of-mouth boosts its legs, it could earn more than $200 million domestically. That’s asking a lot, but it is a possibility. It is certainly something to keep our eyes on.
The W.B. is reporting a $5.85 million opening day for The Mule. It too should have longer than average legs, as it is aimed at a more mature target audience. Granted, its reviews are not great, but it got an A minus from CinemaScore, so that should help. It should top our prediction by a little bit over the full weekend, with $18 million, maybe $19 million. Lack of direct competition should help over the holidays, but we will have a better idea where that’s going by this time next week.
Mortal Engines opened in third place with $2.88 million on Friday, but it won’t stay there for long. Its reviews were bad before the weekend, but have managed to fall even further to just 28% positive. Furthermore, it only managed a B minus with CinemaScore, which is terrible for a film like this. Universal is expecting $8 million over the weekend, which matches our prediction perfectly, so at least I can feel positive about this result. On the other hand, I think any Young Adult novel adaptations currently being worked on should probably be scrapped.
Dr Seuss’ The Grinch pulled in $2.77 million on Friday and Universal is expecting $12.13 million over the full weekend. The film continues to top expectations and we now have to start talking about the possibility of $300 million domestically. I’m not saying it is for sure getting there, but it is certainly a possibility. If it gets a boost from Christmas, then it will be a real possibility.
Ralph Breaks the Internet added $2.11 million on Friday and is headed for just under $10 million over the weekend. This is exactly as predicted, so there’s not much more to add to this.
Creed II fell out of the top five with $1.51 million on Friday, but this was still enough to push it over the $100 million mark after 24 days of release. There will be a Creed III.
Once Upon a Deadpool missed the top ten with $740,000. It could be considered a successful charity stunt, but I don’t expect this film to spawn many imitators.
Finally there’s If Beale Street Could Talk, which opened with $81,575 in four theaters. Annapurna has not had a good year, so this result should be welcomed as good news. Its reviews and early Awards Season success should keep its theater count expanding for a long time.
- Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse Comparisons
- The Mule Comparisons
- Moral Engines Comparisons
Filed under: Friday Estimates, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse 3D, Deadpool 2, Ralph Breaks The Internet, Mortal Engines, If Beale Street Could Talk, Creed II, The Mule