Weekend Predictions: Will Spider-man Swing into First Place?
December 13, 2018
After two weeks with no new releases in the top five, we have three new films vying for a position there. This includes Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse, which is all but guaranteed a spot in the top five. The Mule was thought to be an Awards Season contender, but its reviews are disappointing, given those high hopes. Finally there’s Mortal Engines, a film that cost $100 million to make and will likely barely earn a spot in the top five. This weekend last year, Star Wars: The Last Jedi opened with $220.01 million. That’s more than the entire box office will earn this year. This could be more than all three wide releases earn in total. Fortunately, 2018 has a $1 billion lead over 2017, so three weeks of bad losses won’t change that.
Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse is a second-tier animated film, so it was never expected to be a monster hit. I’m sure Sony would have been happy with just matching its $90 million production budget domestically and breaking even sometime during its home market run. Then the reviews started to arrive. Its Tomatometer Score is 98% positive with an average score of 8.8 out of 10. Not only has its box office chances improved, but it is wildly considered the favorite for the Best Animated Feature Oscar. The film should open with at least $30 million over the weekend, while it has an outside shot at earning $40 million this weekend. I would love to see it crack $40 million, but I think being more cautious is wiser and I’m going with $34 million.
The Mule was looking to win awards; I don’t think that’s a controversial statement to make. However, while it has strong a pedigree, with Clint Eastwood leading an amazing cast, its reviews are merely good and not award-worthy. It could still do relatively well at the box office, unless it is seen by the moviegoing public as busted Oscar-bait. On the plus side, there’s no real direct competition for the rest of the year, so that should help. Look for $17 million during its opening weekend.
Dr Seuss’ The Grinch should get a boost thanks to Christmas getting ever closer, and this will help it earn just under $11 million over the weekend.
Ralph Breaks the Internet will slip to fourth place with just under $10 million over the weekend.
Mortal Engines should open in the top five, mainly because the competition is really weak. The buzz for this film is dreadfully quiet for a movie that cost $100 million. Furthermore, its reviews are not going to help, as they are only 33% positive. It could open with $10 million, but I think $8 million is more likely.
One final note, Once Upon a Deadpool opened on Wednesday with $910,000 in 1,566 theaters. The Deadpool 2 recut is earning weaker reviews with a lot of critics calling it an elaborate Blu-ray extra that somehow got a theatrical release. It’s still good, but the gimmick gets in the way of the film, so the original version is just better. That said, if you have kids that are too young for the original version, this is worth your time.
- Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse Comparisons
- The Mule Comparisons
- Moral Engines Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse 3D, Deadpool 2, Ralph Breaks The Internet, Mortal Engines, The Mule, Clint Eastwood