Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Home Market Releases for September 24th, 2019

September 26th, 2019

It is a horrible week on the home market, at least from my perspective. There are no monster hits to talk about, but a flood of middling releases that I can’t really ignore. The biggest first-run release of the week is Yesterday and it is the closest we have to a Pick of the Week contender on this week’s list. That is if you don’t count Crawl and Midsommar, which are hitting VOD this week. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Toy Story Can’t Overcome Box Office Woes

July 2nd, 2019

June ended with shrug, as the weekend was neither a success nor a disaster. Toy Story 4 was the top draw, but it fell faster than most family films do, down 51% to $59.70 million. Annabelle Comes Home had the weakest opening in the franchise, while Yesterday did well as counter-programming, but that’s all. The overall box office fell 26% from last weekend and, more importantly, 15% from the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2019 has fallen behind 2018’s pace by a margin of 9.5% or $580 million at $5.52 billion to $6.10 billion. At the beginning of June, I thought 2019 would have cut into 2018’s lead by $100 million, but that clearly didn’t happen. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Toy Story Latest Film to Miss Expectations

June 25th, 2019

I think 2019 is done. The year isn’t quite halfway done, but I think I’m ready to call the box office race with 2018 over. Toy Story 4 was the latest potential monster hit to miss expectations by a huge margin. Granted, it still opened in first place with $120.10 million and it will make a substantial profit, but this is still about 25% lower than a lot of people expected and the overall weekend is still a massive disappointment. It did rise 50% from last weekend hitting $204 million, but this was 25% lower than the same weekend last year and that’s a much more important figure. Year-to-date, 2019 is now behind 2018 by 8.9% or $510 million at $5.26 billion to $5.77 billion. If you want to stretch for some good news, then this isn’t the worst deficit we’ve seen this year. More...

Weekend Estimates: Toy Story has the Best Opening in the Franchise, Still Disappoints

June 23rd, 2019

Almost none of the films on this week’s list are living up to expectations, at least not according to the weekend estimates. Toy Story 4 is earning the best opening in the franchise with an estimated $118.0 million weekend. This is third-highest opening for an animated film, so there is reason to celebrate. However, it is also much lower than expected and a little more front-loaded than anticipated, so its future might be in doubt. The film is doing better internationally with an estimated opening weekend of $120.0 million in 37 markets. The film had the third biggest opening in Mexico with $23.4 million, putting it behind just the two most recent Avengers movies. It had the biggest opening for an animated film in Brazil with $9.6 million. The film was also a monster hit in the U.K. with $15.0 million. On the other hand, it struggled in China with a second-place $13.4 million opening there; however, most animated films struggle in China. Hopefully the film’s reviews and its A from CinemaScore translate into long legs, because 2019 really needs more success stories at the box office. More...

Friday Estimates: Toy Story Doesn’t Have an Incredible Start

June 22nd, 2019

Toy Story 4 is on pace to earn the third-best opening weekend for an animated film, but despite this, it will be seen as a disappointment, as many people were expecting a lot more. The film earned $47.39 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $123 million over the full weekend, which is behind Incredibles 2 and Finding Dory on the all-time opening chart for an animated film. It really needed to be higher up that list in order to help 2019 win in the year-over-year competition. At this pace, it won’t even match last year’s number one film, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom. On the positive side, the film is earning 97% positive reviews and managed an A from CinemaScore, so it should have long legs. It will be a hit for Pixar and Disney is not going to lose money on this movie. However, I’m getting tired of big films failing to live up to expectations and I don’t think 2019 is going to be able to turn things around. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Toy Story 4 has Second Best Animated Previews

June 21st, 2019

First the good news: Toy Story 4 had the second best previews for an animated film earning $12 million. Now the bad news: Incredibles 2 had the best earning $18.5 million last year. Toy Story 4 better have better legs or 2019 is in real trouble. Fortunately, most analysts agree that it will and it is still on pace to match our $155 million prediction. We will obviously know more tomorrow when Friday’s numbers show up, but also the CinemaScore will be a big help. If audiences love the movie as much as critics did, then its legs should be a real asset. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Toy Story 4 Save June’s Box Office Run?

June 20th, 2019

June has not lived up to expectations and unless Toy Story 4 is a record-breaking hit, we are going to end the month with a loss. I don’t think it will break records, but it will easily be the biggest hit of the month. Also opening this week is Child’s Play, the reboot to the long-running horror franchise of the same name. Finally, Anna is the latest film from Luc Besson and many are comparing it to Lucy. It’s not going to do that well. It likely won’t reach the top five. This weekend last year, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom opened with $148.02 million. I really hope Toy Story 4 tops that; however, even if it does, nothing playing this weekend is going to compare with Incredibles 2’s run last year, so 2019 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison. More...

2019 Preview: June

June 1st, 2019

While the final weekend in May isn’t over yet, we can safely say the month was merely okay. It managed to keep pace with last May, but I was really hoping to cut into 2019’s deficit by a significant margin. June is not looking any better, at least not compared to 2018. There are two potential monster hits, The Secret Life of Pets 2 and Toy Story 4, as well as a trio of $100 million hits, Dark Phoenix, Men in Black: International, and Annabelle Comes Home. On the surface, this looks excellent; however, last June was even better on top with Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom earning a combined $1 billion domestically. Granted, the only other $100 million hit was Oceans 8, so this year should have a lot better depth. I don’t think it will be enough to gain any ground in the year-over-year comparison, which is the only way to really judge how a month is doing at this point. More...

Child’s Play Trailer

April 16th, 2019

Horror movie starring Aubrey Plaza and Gabriel Bateman opens June 21 ... Full Movie Details. More...