July 1st, 2021
With the release of F9: The Fast Saga last weekend as well as this week’s The Boss Baby: Family Business and The Forever Purge, Universal Pictures is currently keeping very busy. F9 debuted last weekend in 4,179 locations and earned just over $70 million during its first three days. The latest figures show the action film has earned $88 million domestically and $424 million worldwide, and it’ll be expanding to 4,203 locations to start off its second weekend.
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June 24th, 2021
F9: The Fast Saga, the highly anticipated 9th installment of the Fast and the Furious franchise roars into North American theaters this weekend. The film, which stars an action-packed ensemble cast and is directed by Justin Lin, is being released in 4,179 theaters. The Universal Pictures blockbuster sequel has already generated over $293 million worldwide and is the only wide release to launch this weekend. Domestic theaters have not seen such a vast opening since Disney released Onward, back on March 6, 2020. The franchise has brought in $1.7b domestically, $6.2b worldwide and ranks 15th in all time franchise earnings when adjusted for inflation. The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard—last weekend’s box office winner—adds theaters this week, going from 3,331 to 3,361. A Quiet Place: Part II enters its fourth week by playing in 3,124 locations, while Peter Rabbit 2: The Runway drops from 3,346 theaters last week to 3,331 this week.
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October 2nd, 2018
It’s an off week on the home market with no blockbusters to deal with. There are two solid midlevel hits, The First Purge and Sicario: Day of the Soldado, but neither of those are Pick of the Week contenders. (Ant-Man and the Wasp is also coming out this week, but only on Video on Demand). There are some high quality picks: Leave No Trace, Three Identical Strangers, Molly, The Spiral Staircase, and Hyouka. It was a close race, but in the end, I went with Leave No Trace Blu-ray as Pick of the Week.
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July 17th, 2018
The weekend wasn’t nearly as close as expected. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation ran away at the box office, while fellow new release, Skyscraper, only managed third place. This did allow Ant-Man and the Wasp to earn second place during its second weekend of release. Overall, the box office fell 12% compared to last weekend, but it was 1.6% higher than the same weekend last year. Granted, this is not a high enough margin of victory to compensate for ticket price inflation, but 2018 has such a large lead that even a small victory like this is more than enough to feel good about the overall box office. Speaking of large leads, 2018’s lead over 2017 remains impressive at $550 million or 8.9% at $6.72 billion to $6.17 billion.
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July 10th, 2018
The two biggest releases of the weekend couldn’t quite match expectations, while the two big holdovers weren’t able compensate, resulting in a rare loss for 2018. Ant-Man and the Wasp still had an excellent opening with $75.81 million over the weekend, the seventh-best opening weekend of the year. The First Purge started out well on Wednesday, but slipped below the pace needed to match predictions by the weekend. That said, the overall weekend haul was still impressive at $188 million, which is 5.8% higher than last weekend. Granted, it is 8.7% lower than the same weekend last year, but Spider-Man: Homecoming opened with $117.03 million, so this is still a good result. Furthermore, 2018 remains ahead of 2017 by a substantial amount: $570 million, or 9.6%, at $6.47 billion to $5.90 billion. If the year ended with a lead of $570 million, we would be very happy.
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July 8th, 2018
Ant-Man and the Wasp did not have as good a Saturday as hoped, and this has left it with a projected $76.03 million over the weekend, according to Disney’s Sunday morning estimate. While, this is more or less in line with original predictions, it is lower than previews and Friday estimates suggested. Fortunately, with great reviews and an A minus from CinemaScore, it should have legs long enough to get to $200 million domestically, with a little help from the studio. This would be a little more than a 10% increase from the first Ant-Man. Internationally, the film opened with $85 million in 41 markets, including a monster opening in South Korea. The film managed $20.9 million debut there, including previews, which was 78% higher that the first film’s opening in that market. Overall, the film saw 45% growth internationally compared to just under 33% growth here.
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July 6th, 2018
Ant-Man and the Wasp opened with $11.5 million during its midnight shows last night. That’s a huge increase from the $6.4 million the first Ant-Man earned during its previews. However, Ant-Man and the Wasp is a sequel, well, more of a sequel than Ant-Man was, so it very likely won’t have the same legs. Unfortunately, this is true of all of the best comparisons. Doctor Strange is the closest in terms of box office expectations, but it opened in November. Guardians of the Galaxy had a more similar release date, but its legs were unusually long and that would skew any calculation. Spider-Man: Homecoming opened this weekend last year, so it is an excellent comparison in that regard. It isn’t a direct sequel, but the character was introduced in Captain America: Civil War, so maybe it’s a little bit more of a sequel than the first Ant-Man was. If we assume the two films will have the same legs, then Ant-Man and the Wasp will open with about $87 million. This is better than our prediction and more than enough to be worth celebrating. Additionally, the film’s reviews have continued to improve and with a Tomatometer Score of 87% and an average score of 7 out of 10, it could have long legs over the weekend, at least when compared to most other similar releases.
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July 5th, 2018
It’s technically the July 4th Weekend, although July 4th was yesterday. This is a good weekend to release a film and Ant-Man and the Wasp is looking to take advantage of the holiday. Meanwhile, The First Purge already started its run with $2.5 million in previews. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Incredibles 2 will continue to be a major presence at the box office. This weekend last year, Spider-Man: Homecoming opened with $117.03 million. There’s no way Ant-Man and the Wasp is going to match that. It’s highly unlikely Ant-Man and the Wasp and The First Purge combined will match that. The depth this year is a little better, but I think 2018 will lose in the year-over-year comparison. Hopefully it will be close.
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July 1st, 2018
June was amazing, with two absolute monster hits and a solid $100 million hit. By the end of the month, 2018’s lead over 2017 will be well over $500 million, or close to 10%. Even if 2018 only managed to maintain this lead in terms of raw numbers for the rest of the year, it will be a massive jump at the box office. As for July, there are a couple of potential monster hits, Ant-Man and the Wasp and Mission: Impossible—Fallout, plus four potential $100 million hits. Last July, there was only one monster hit, Spider-Man: Homecoming, and three $100 million hits. I don’t think 2018 will match 2017 at the top, but 2018 appears to have more depth and that should put it a little ahead over the full month.
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September 13th, 2017
Apparently it is Halloween, because there are a lot of horror titles on this week’s list. Some of them are good, some are not. As for Pick of the Week contenders, there are a few of them. If you have kids, then Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie on DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, or 4K Ultra Combo Pack is your best bet. If you are a fan of Sci-fi, then go with the final season for Orphan Black. However, in the end I went with Phenomena on Blu-ray. You can also buy the movie from the Official Site in a Steelbox with soundtrack and pamphlet.
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October 4th, 2016
The theme for this week on the home market is “good, but not great”. There are a lot of releases, but almost none of them rise above merely good. This meant there were very few contenders for Pick of the Week and the only real choice was The Wailing. It earned perfect reviews, so even though the Blu-ray isn’t loaded with extras, it is still the best release of the week.
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August 3rd, 2016
It is the beginning of August, a.k.a., the beginning of TV on DVD season. While there are a few prominent releases in that category, the biggest release is Batman: The Killing Joke, which is still a hot mess, but this time on Blu-ray. There are plenty of smaller releases that are worth picking up, including April and the Extraordinary World. Its reviews are nearly 100% positive and the Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week.
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July 12th, 2016
As expected, The Secret Life of Pets earned first place on the weekend box office chart. However, almost no one was expecting it to dominate the way that it did with $104.35 million. There are some calling this film the best opening for a non-franchise animation film, but let’s face the facts... Universal started work on two or three sequels as soon as Friday’s Estimates came in. Meanwhile, Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates has a good opening in the role of counter-programming with $16.63 million. Overall, the box office pulled in $217 million, which was 14% more than last weekend. More importantly, it is 1.3% more than the same weekend last year. Granted, this is lower than ticket price inflation, but since most people assumed the weekend would suffer a serious decline, this should be seen as a major victory. Year-to-date, 2016’s lead over 2015 grew a tiny bit hitting 2.4% at $6.00 billion to $5.86 billion.
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July 6th, 2016
The Fourth of July weekend went very well as two of the three new releases beat expectations. However, none of them were able to top Finding Dory, which earned its third win in a row. The Legend of Tarzan was very close in second place, which surprised a lot of analysts, but there might be a logical reason for its success. The Purge: Election Year more than tripled its production budget during its opening three-day weekend, so there’s no chance the studio isn’t giddy over that. The only real disappointment was The BFG, which got lost in the crowd. The overall box office was up from last week, which is a pleasant surprise. Granted, it grew by just under 1.0% to $192 million over the three-day weekend. More importantly, it was 41% higher than the same three-day weekend last year. Add in Monday, and the year-to-date lead rose to $120 million or 2.2% at $5.71 billion to $5.58 billion.
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July 2nd, 2016
The Purge: Election Year earned first place with on Friday with $14.47 million during its opening day. This is impressive for film that cost $10 million to make, but it is below the opening day for the first film. The holidays should help its internal multiplier, as will the critical reception. While its reviews have slipped below the overall positive level, they are still the best for the franchise. Additionally, its CinemaScore was B+, again the best for the franchise. This puts the film on pace for just under $40 million during its four-day weekend. This is very likely more than the film’s combined budget, so if it can make this much during the rest of its theatrical run, it will break even just on its domestic numbers.
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July 1st, 2016
The Purge: Election Year earned the best Thursday previews out of the three wide releases with $3.64 million last night. This is the best in the franchise, just beating the $3.44 million the first film managed and well ahead of the $2.64 million the second film pulled in. On the downside, the film's reviews have slipped to just 57% positive. That's still good, for this genre and it might be a bigger than expected hit.
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July 1st, 2016
It's July 1st, which is Canada Day. To celebrate, I wanted to give a gift to my American readers down south, so here's a bunch of "u"s. U, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u. Now you can spell words like "colour" and "neighbour" correctly. As for the July preview... June wasn't a good month, despite Finding Dory being on pace to become the biggest hit of the year so far. Most other films failed to match expectations and as a result, 2016's lead over 2015 has nearly evaporated. In fact, ticket sales are below last year's pace. So how does July look in comparison? Well, last July, there were five films that earned more than $100 million, led by Minions, which earned more than $300 million. This July, there are five films that should earn more than $100 million, led by The Secret Life of Pets, which should earned around $250 million. I don't think July 2016 will live up to July 2015, but it should be close. Maybe if one of the expected midlevel hits is a surprise $100 million hit, or if two more of the $100 million hits crack $200 million, then the month will look great. Or one of the expected $100 million hits could flop and 2016 will actually fall behind 2015, even without taking into account ticket price inflation.
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June 30th, 2016
It's the first weekend of July, which means I should probably start the monthly preview. (I'm kidding. Although, I did have a computer crash this morning and lost a few hours of work. Save early. Save often.) Like last week, Finding Dory should earn first place over the weekend, while there are a trio of wide releases hoping to take advantage of the holiday. The BFG is the biggest in terms of box office potential. The Legend of Tarzan is the biggest in terms of production budget. Finally, The Purge: Election Year is the biggest in terms of profitability. This weekend last year, Inside Out climbed over Jurassic World for first place, as both films earned just under $30 million, Finding Dory will make almost that much combined.
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