August 20th, 2018
It’s a good week on the home market as we not only have a monster hit that is worth being a Pick of the Week contender, Deadpool 2, we have a wide selection of other contenders. This includes a limited release, First Reformed; an Anime title,Sakura Quest: Part Two; as well as a TV on DVD release, Ash vs. Evil Dead: Season Three. In the end, I went with Ash vs. Evil Dead: Season Three, but it was a close race.
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April 1st, 2018
The gulf between blockbusters and also-rans could hardly be starker these days. Since the release of Black Panther to a whopping $202 million on February 16, three movies that could have caught the general public’s imagination have arrived on the scene, and earned somewhere between a fifth and a seventh of that on opening weekend. Ready Player One is the most successful among them, with an opening of $41.2 million predicted by Warner Bros. as of this morning. That compares favorably to the openings of A Wrinkle in Time (which started out with $33.1 million), and Pacific Rim: Uprising ($28.1 million), and is, in fact, the best weekend in 2018 for a movie not called Black Panther, but it barely starts to chip away at considerable marketing costs, let alone a reported $150 million production budget.
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March 29th, 2018
March comes to a close with three wide releases. Of these, only Ready Player One is expected to be even a midlevel hit. In fact, it will likely earn more over its four-day weekend than the other two films earn in total. Acrimony should open in the mid to low teens, while God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness will barely make the top ten. This weekend last year, The Boss Baby opened with just over $50 million. Maybe Ready Player One will make that much over four days. Even if it does, 2017’s impressive depth means there’s almost no chance 2018 will win in the year-over-year comparison.
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March 1st, 2018
February was an amazing month, thanks mainly to Black Panther, but Fifty Shades Freed and Peter Rabbit were also significant hits and overall the month was a massive improvement over last February. Looking forward, there’s nothing opening in March that will earn as much in total as Black Panther did during its opening weekend. That said, A Wrinkle in Time and Ready Player One should have no trouble getting to $100 million, while Tomb Raider has a 50/50 chance of getting there. Unfortunately, compared to last March, this is still a pittance. There’s a chance that no film opening this March will earn as much in total as Beauty and the Beast opened with last march. We will need Black Panther to have good legs to keep 2018 ahead of 2017 by the end of the month.
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February 1st, 2018
2018 got off to a good start and January more or less held its ground when compared to 2017. There were some misses, but surprise holdovers made up the difference. Looking forward, February will be dominated by Black Panther. In fact, it will very likely make more during its opening weekend than the second place film, Fifty Shades Freed, will likely make in total. Black Panther likely won’t break records, but it could come close, while Fifty Shade Freed and Peter Rabbit both have a 50/50 shot at $100 million. Last February, The Lego Batman Movie both earned $175 million, while Fifty Shades Darker earned over $100 million. Black Panther will easily beat any film from last February; in fact, it could earn more than the top two films earned combined. As long as the rest of the box office isn’t a complete disaster, February should help 2018 earn a significant edge over 2017 in the year-over-year comparisons.
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