Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

International Round Up: The Eight Hundred Lights Up Chinese Theaters

August 27th, 2020

The international markets were dominated at the weekend by The Eight Hundred’s blockbuster release in China. It was expected to do well, but a a seven-day opening “weekend” of $113.4 million ($115.4 million including previews) is beyond expectations, given the 50% capacity restrictions in Chinese theaters. It is actually more than Hobbs & Shaw earned this time last year, and helped the box office more than triple compared to last week. Granted, Hobbs & Shaw only had four days at the box office and not seven, but this is still a spectacular opening.

Performance around the rest of the world was more mixed, but there are some hopeful signs as Tenet starts its long-anticipated rollout. More...

International Round Up: It’s Alive! The Box Office is Alive!

July 2nd, 2020

For the first time in months, there is a real reason to be optimistic about the box office, at least internationally. South Korea became the first market to have an unqualified success since the beginning of the pandemic. Several other markets saw increased box office at the weekend, including France, Spain, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. Here are all the details. More...

International Round Up: Progress Slows on International Front

June 25th, 2020

We had some hopeful signs on the international box office over the past couple of weeks, but the progress has greatly slowed down. This is in part due to the lack of major releases in most markets, but also due in part to theater owners not opening as quickly as some governments are allowing. For example, cinemas in Italy were allowed to open on June 15th, but the vast majority of them remain closed. Furthermore, we are solidly in a feedback loop where the lack of new releases is hurting the box office and the weak box office means studios will be unwilling to release major movies. There are still a few pieces of good news to report around the world though. More...

International Round Up: Another Small Sign we are Returning to Normal

June 17th, 2020

For the first time in a long time, we got official box office numbers from a major studio this week. Sony released Little Women in Japan where it earned $495,000 and placed first in the market. The film also remained first in Denmark with $255,000 during its second weekend of release for a running tally of $750,000 so far. Both of these numbers are fairly good, as dramas are a lot harder to translate to other languages and cultures than action films are. They also indicate a growing theatrical market in both territories. Furthermore, the source material for this movie has a distinct American feel, so it is not surprising that it wasn’t a monster hit in either of these markets. Overall, Little Women pulled in $760,000 on 440 screens in 13 markets for an international total of $99.5 million after about six month of release. It should get to $100 million in the next week or so. More...

International Round Up: South Korea has a Welcome Intruder at the Box Office

June 10th, 2020

Although recovery from the pandemic varies widely around the world, and some countries are seeing worrying spikes in infections, this weekend saw some encouraging signs of growth at the box office. Here’s a round up of what we’re seeing in different territories. More...

International Round Up: Underwater Helps the International Box Office Breath Again

June 4th, 2020

More and more countries are either re-opening cinemas or at the very least lessening restrictions. Japan ended its state of emergency, Norway is opening up, France plans to open on June 22nd, parts of Spain are already opening up. Warner Bros. continues to be optimistic about Tenet’s July opening date. Meanwhile, international box office numbers suggest we should be cautious in our box office predictions. For example, Underwater earned $402,000 during its five-day opening in South Korea, making it the biggest hit in that market in a while. However, that would still be a weak opening day if the box office was truly back to normal. Overall, the ten ten in South Korea was up 10% from last weekend, to reach $1.2 million, so at least there’s progress there. There are plans for some major local films to be released in June and they could help the box office get closer to normal. That would be a big boost to the overall industry. More...

DEG Watched At Home Chart: Sonic Sneaks into First Place

May 28th, 2020

Sonic the Hedgehog was released on DVD / Blu-ray / 4K last week and that helped it climb into first place on the DEG Watched at Home chart. The film was already in fifth place last week on the strength of its digital releases, so it has had a very profitable run on the home market already. More...

International Round Up: Onward Leads Taiwan, Box Office Moves Upward, Cineworld Eyes July for Reopening

May 28th, 2020

Cineworld announced tentative plans to reopen all 790 theaters they operate in 11 markets in July. This would be great news for the movie industry, if it happens. The cinema chain is the biggest in the US domestic market, but it is also a major player in Europe. There are still several major markets in Europe with tens of thousands of active cases of COVID-19, including the U.K., France, Spain, Italy, so it remains uncertain whether their full plans will come to fruition. If this works, then it will be a big boost to morale as it is a concrete sign things are returning to normal. If there’s a second wave and cinemas have to be shut down again, like what happened in China, then it could be devastating. As for this week’s box office numbers, there is not a lot to talk about, but what we few numbers we have are mostly positive. More...

DVD and Blu-ray Releases for May 26th, 2020

May 26th, 2020

The main list of DVD and Blu-ray releases is much shorter than usual, but the hit-to-miss ratio is amazing as there are no real duds. Solid Metal Nightmares has the smallest target audience, but even then, it will be loved by fans. As for Pick of the Week contenders, The Invisible Man and Konosuba were the two best bets. I went with The Invisible Man, as you need to be a fan of isekai anime to really get Konosuba. You also need a higher tolerance of pervvy humor. Although that might be a selling point for some. More...

International Round-up: Small Steps Forward Around the World

May 21st, 2020

While the COVID-19 pandemic continues in full force in many parts of the world, there are some places where the outbreak is contained enough that things are starting to reopen. This includes limited business in movie theaters in a handful of markets. Here’s a round-up of what we’re seeing around the world this week. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: In the Land of Quarantines, VOD is the King

March 20th, 2020

The COVID-19 outbreak has hit all 50 states and in many of them it is a state of emergency. Mass theater closings hasn’t stopped all limited releases, but I assume Video on Demand will generate a lot more business this weekend. Because of the COVID-19 outbreak, there are so few theatrical releases that, starting this week, I am including made-for-VOD and streaming releases, including some original TV shows. We are also going to include theatrical releases that were fast-tracked to VOD this week. If you don't want to / can't hit theaters this week (and the overwhelming advice coming from the professionals is not to), you can watch some big movies early on the home market, including The Invisible Man, Onward, and others. Stay safe! More...

International Box Office: One Last Shot at the Box Office

March 18th, 2020

The COVID-19 outbreak has been causing major closures of theater chains both domestically and internationally, which means this could be the last meaningful box office report for weeks, if not months. Bloodshot led the way with $12.47 million on 10,443 screens in 59 markets for an early international total of $14.59 million. The film is playing in most major markets, but it only cracked $1 million in three of them, led by Russia at $2.47 million on 1,665. Indonesia isn’t considered a major market, but the film earned $1.72 million on 868 screens there. The film topped the charts in both of those markets, but had to settle for second place in Mexico with $1.13 million on 1,510 screens in that market. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: COVID-19 Scare Results in Worst Weekend in Decades

March 16th, 2020

The weekend broke a record, one that I thought would never be broken. Ticket price inflation means the smallest overall weekend record looked unbreakable, but this weekend only managed $53.50 million, although that number should be adjusted up as some indie films report numbers later in the week. This is down 47% from last weekend and down 61% from the same weekend last year. Only one film managed to top $10 million, Onward, while the total box office was less than what Captain Marvel earned this weekend last year. This is easily the worst weekend since I’ve been in the business, but I fear it will get worse before it gets better. Year-to-date is, to be blunt, a disaster. 2020 is already $100 million behind 2019’s pace and 2019 was not a good year at the box office. Furthermore, the $1.76 billion box office is only 195 million tickets sold, meaning we are on pace for the lowest ticket sales since the turn of the century. More...

Weekend Estimates: Onward Hit by Box Office Shutdown

March 15th, 2020

People are clearly taking the concept of social distancing seriously and this is causing a massive drop at the box office. Onward is going to lead the way at the box office this weekend, but with just $10.53 million. This is down 73% from its opening weekend, which is the worst in the top ten. Granted, it is a family film during its sophomore stint, so it would naturally be affected the most by social distancing. Internationally, things were much worse as some markets were shutting down theaters entirely. The film is only earning $6.8 million in 47 markets for totals of $41.4 million internationally and $101.7 million worldwide. On the positive side, its reviews are really strong, so it should find a second life on the home market. More...

Friday Estimates: COVID-19 Outbreak Takes Out Box Office

March 14th, 2020

I Still Believe debuted in first place with $4.0 million on Friday, putting it on pace for close to $11 million over the full weekend. On the positive side, this is what was predicted, so at least it is matching lowered expectations. On the negative side, it won’t be enough to remain in first place for long. Its reviews are mixed, but it did earn an A-rating from CinemaScore, which is easily the best of the three new releases that came out this week. More...

Weekend Predictions: Trio of Films Opening Wide could be Last Wide Releases for Weeks

March 12th, 2020

Wash your hands. This could be the worst weekend of the year at the box office, perhaps even the worst weekend of the past several years. COVID-19 has caused the suspension of the NBA and NHL seasons, while practically every wide release for the next several weeks has been pushed back indefinitely. This news is very likely going to hurt ticket sales as people are taking the concept of “self isolation” seriously. Last weekend, Onward and Sonic the Hedgehog were hit the hardest, which makes sense, as families would be the first to avoid going out because of a pandemic, but now I think general audiences will also avoid crowds. Worse still, none of the three wide releases were expected to be anything more than midlevel hits at the best of times. Now, I wouldn’t be surprised if none of Bloodshot, The Hunt, and I Still Believe hit $10 million over the weekend. This weekend last year, Captain Marvel earned $67.99 million during its second weekend of release. That will be more than the three new releases will open with combined. It could be more than their combined domestic totals. More...

International Box Office: Onward Starts On Top, but it could have a Short Journey in Theaters

March 12th, 2020

Onward opened in first place internationally with just $28.0 million in 47 markets during its opening weekend. Worse still, the film has opened in most major markets and it wasn’t a serious hit in any of them. Its biggest market was the U.K., where it did open in first place with $4.45 million on 632 theaters. It also earned first place in France ($3.5 million) and in Mexico ($2.84 million). On the other hand, it had to settle for second place in Russia ($2.99 million on 1,631 screens) and Germany ($1.7 million). More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Onward on the Outs

March 10th, 2020

It was a bad weekend at the box office. There’s really no way to spin this in a positive way. Onward opened just below the low end of predictions with just $39.12 million. The Way Back couldn’t make up the difference, as it only managed $8.17 million. The overall box office was up 2.0% from last weekend at just over $100 million. Sadly, this was 52% lower than the same weekend last year when Captain Marvel debuted. I don’t think anyone truly thought 2020 would win this weekend in the year-over-year competition. However, I don’t think many thought it would lose this badly. In fact, 2020 has slipped below 2019’s pace by 1.3% or $22 million at $1.68 billion to $1.70 billion. This is a disaster. More...

Weekend Estimates: Onward Hits $40 million, Maybe

March 8th, 2020

According to Disney, Onward will earn $40.0 million during its opening weekend. I strongly suspect they rounded up to get to that number, because opening below $40 million would have been a lot harder to spin in a positive way and they wanted to delay that admission one more day. Or maybe the final weekend number will be higher and I will have egg on my face. If it does match its estimates, it will still be on the lower end of expectations, but it will at least have a very healthy internal multiplier, meaning its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore are helping its box office numbers. The film’s demographics were evenly split with 52% of the audience being female and 42% being general audiences vs. 58% families. Internationally, the film really struggled with just $28.0 million in 47 markets. The film opened in most major markets and this includes first place debut in the U.K. ($4.4 million); France ($3.3 million); and Mexico ($3.0 million). On the other hand, it had to settle for second place in both Russia ($2.1 million) and Germany ($1.9 million). The film is going to need very long legs or a massive home market run to break even any time soon. More...

Friday Estimates: Onward is Off the Pace

March 7th, 2020

It looks like March will start slower than anticipated, as Onward only managed $12.1 million on Friday, putting it on pace for just under $40 million during its opening weekend. If it does miss $40 million by any real degree, then it will be Pixar’s worst wide opening since Toy Story. Even if it avoids that fate, it is on pace to have the worst three-day opening for a Pixar film since The Good Dinosaur, and that film opened on a Wednesday. I’m not sure how to explain this other than look at the COVID-19 outbreak. Granted, its reviews are strong, but well below average for the studio. Likewise, its CinemaScore is a mere A minus, which isn’t great for a family film. It’s still good, but not great, certainly better than its box office numbers would indicate. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Onward Begins Behind Sonic’s Speedy Pace

March 6th, 2020

Onward started its box office run with $2 million in previews on Thursday. By comparison, Sonic the Hedgehog earned $3 million during its previews last month. It is even lower than the $2.6 million Dumbo earned last year. Granted, this film earned better reviews than those two films earned, so hopefully that will result in better legs, but we won’t have any real evidence for that till tomorrow when Friday estimates show up. I choose to remain cautiously optimistic with regards to our predictions. More...

Weekend Predictions: Onward and Upward?

March 6th, 2020

The first weekend of March should be much better than the last weekend of February was, as Onward is widely expected to be a much bigger hit than The Invisible Man was. Unfortunately, it is also widely expected to not be enough to compete with what Captain Marvel made this weekend last year. In fact, it isn’t expected to make as much during its opening weekend as Captain Marvel made during its opening day. 2020 is going to get destroyed in the year-over-year comparison. More...

2020 Preview: March

March 1st, 2020

The box office had mixed results during February with Birds of Prey missing expectations by a huge margin, but Sonic the Hedgehog did well enough to almost make up the difference. This March, there are three films that will almost certainly reach $100 million domestically: Onward, A Quiet Place: Part II, and Mulan. In fact, all three at least have a slim shot at $200 million domestically. By comparison, last March Captain Marvel was released, which earned more than $400 million, while Us and Dumbo earned close to $300 million combined. I don’t think the top three films this year will match last year’s top three, or even come particularly close, and I fear 2020 will fall behind 2019 in the year-over-year comparison. So much for that lead 2020 built up in January. More...

Onward Trailer

October 10th, 2019

Pixar animated adventure with the voices of Chris Pratt and Tom Holland opens March 20 ... Full Movie Details. More...