January 10th, 2019
The Writers Guild of America has a lot of categories, as they hand out nearly 30 awards. However, only three of them are for theatrical releases. The list of nominees include several major Awards Season players and not a lot of surprises. There are some clear patterns emerging, but also some surprising results.
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December 18th, 2018
It’s an odd week on the home market, as there are four major first run releases coming out this week, but almost nothing else. Fun fact, I got screeners for all four of these films, although one of them arrived too late to review. Of these four, A Simple Favor is clearly the best and the DVD / Blu-ray / 4K is a contender for Pick of the Week. Its only competition is the 4K release for 2001: A Space Odyssey.
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September 21st, 2018
The House with a Clock in its Walls opened with $840,000 in previews on Thursday, which sounds terrible for a wide release, but it is actually quite good, all things considered. It is a family film that had previews on a school night, so it is no surprise it couldn’t crack $1 million. By comparison, Goosebumps opened with $600,000, before earning $23.62 million during its opening weekend and if this film has similar legs, it will open with more than $30 million. On the other hand, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children opened with $1.2 million before earning $28.87 million, which would give this film barely more than $20 million. House’s reviews are closer to Miss Peregrine’s reviews than Goosebumps’ reviews, so its legs will likely be similar. That said, I’m happy with our $20 million prediction for now, but I could have to adjust it tomorrow when Friday’s numbers show up.
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September 20th, 2018
It’s a busier week than expected, as there are four films opening wide or semi-wide. The House with a Clock in its Walls is the only one with a shot at first place. In fact, it might be the only new release in the top five. Fahrenheit 11/9 could earn as much as $10 million, but it could also fail to reach the top five with $5 million. Life Itself is aiming even lower, but there’s an outside chance all things line up correctly and it earns a spot in the top five. On the other hand, Assassination Nation is opening semi-wide and it could miss the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Kingsman: The Golden Circle opened with nearly $40 million and two other films earned more than $20 million. This weekend, there might not be a single film with $20 million at the box office.
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September 1st, 2018
Overall, August was a little better than expected. Granted, there were no monster hits, but Warner Bros. had two $100 million hits in The Meg and Crazy Rich Asians. Meanwhile, Christopher Robin will come close enough to that milestone to be a hit. This allowed 2018 to stretch its lead over 2017 by over $700 million. Will that lead grow in September? Nope. Not even close. There are three major problems that will hurt September’s box office. Firstly, there are a lot of films that may or may not open wide. Secondly, there are no films opening this month that have a better than 50/50 chance of hitting $100 million. Finally... It. It destroyed records last September, earning more during its opening weekend than any film opening this month will earn in total. Fortunately, 2018 has such an enormous lead that even with It, 2018 should remain ahead of 2107 by $500 million at the end of the month.
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May 9th, 2016
It is officially the summer blockbuster season, which is historically the worst time of year for the home market. We are usually flooded with duds from January and February. However, this year we have the biggest hit of the year so far, Deadpool, which is coming out on DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, and 4K. Unless your eyesight is better than 20/20, 4k is not worth the upgrade, but the Blu-ray is the Pick of the Week. It isn't the only contender for that title. Mustang (DVD or Blu-ray) and The Little Girl Who Lives Down the Lane (Blu-ray) are also must haves.
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February 13th, 2016
Sometimes a movie opens and it takes a while to figure out if it was a financial success or not. Deadpool is not one of those movies. Not only did its previews break a couple of records, it crushed a few more on Friday. Its opening day haul of $47.5 million is a new record for the biggest day in February, topping Fifty Shades of Grey by just over $10 million. It is also the biggest opening day for an R-rated film, topping The Maxtrix Reloaded for that record. It likely won’t have as strong legs as that film, despite its reviews, because the Fanboy Effect is strong with this movie. That said, the film cost just $58 million to make, so unless it cost more than that to advertise, it will break even just on its domestic box office.
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February 12th, 2016
It's Valentine's Day weekend, so it should come as no surprise that there's a few romantic films on this week's list. On the other hand, the biggest release is Where to Invade Next. Its reviews are good, but it is opening in 300 theaters, which could prove to be too many.
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December 25th, 2015
While there are a massive number of wide releases / wide expansions this week, there are very few limited releases. Generally by this time of year, the competition from previously released Awards Season contenders is just too much. The only type of film that can truly thrive is one that has a lot of pre-release buzz. This year, this includes The Hateful Eight, which has the widest opening on this week's list and expands truly wide next week, as well as The Revenant, which expands wide early in January.
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